BC: Juv; Juv-F; Juv-T (PP's/Odds)
 

Juvenile Turf

9th (5:00) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf S.

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 1 Your Round Castro E Hubley Mark 122 L 30-1
2 2 Cannonball Trujillo E Ward Wesley A 122 LA 50-1
3 3 The Leopard Velazquez J R Pletcher Todd A 122 LA 8-1
4 4 Cherokee Triangle Albarado R J Maker Michael J 122 LA 10-1
5 5 Strike the Deal Dettori L Noseda Jeremy 122 FTL 9-2
6 6 Gio Ponti Dominguez R A Clement Christophe 122 L 8-1
7 7 Nownownow Leparoux J R Parisel Francois 122 L 10-1
8 8 Achill Island (IRE) Murtagh J P O'Brien Aidan P 122 FTL 7-2
9 9 Prussian Desormeaux K J Mott William I 122 LA 3-1
10 10 Preachin Man Velasquez C Werner Ronny 122 LA 50-1
11 11 Texas Fever Gomez G K Stidham Michael 122 L 30-1
12 12 Domestic Fund (IRE) Smullen P J Weld Dermot K 122 Blk-On FTL 5-1


Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Daily Double (Race 9 -10)

Juvenile Fillies


4th (12:30) Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)
1 1/16 Miles | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000

1 1 Phantom Income Coa E M Violette, Jr. R A 119 LA 30-1
2 2 Clearly Foxy Husbands P Casse Mark 119 LA 30-1
3 3 Tasha's Miracle Flores D R Sadler John W 119 Blk-On L 10-1
4 4 Indian Blessing Gomez G K Baffert Bob 119 LA 3-1
5 5 Irish Smoke Leparoux J R Parisel Francois 119 L 8-1
6 6 Set Play Blanc B Miller Peter 119 L 20-1
7 7 Backseat Rhythm Castellano J J Reynolds Patrick L 119 L 12-1
8 8 Izarra Espinoza V McAnally Ronald 119 L 6-1
9 9 Smarty Deb Frazier R L Harwood Doris 119 LA 30-1
10 10 Proud Spell Saez G Jones J Larry 119 LA 5-1
11 11 Zee Zee Albarado R J Mott William I 119 LA 30-1
12 12 Grace Anatomy Dettori L O'Neill Doug 119 L 10-1
XX XX Cry and Catch Me SCR
14 14 A to the Croft Desormeaux K J McPeek Kenneth G 119 Blk-On LA 10-1


Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)

Juvenile


5th (1:10) Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000


1 1 Z Humor Desormeaux K J Mott William I 122 Blk-On LA 12-1
2 2 War Pass Velasquez C Zito Nicholas P 122 L 5-2
3 3 Kodiak Kowboy Velazquez J R Asmussen Steven M 122 L 8-1
4 4 Slew's Tiznow Leparoux J R Parisel Francois 122 L 15-1
5 5 Shore Do Smith M E Peery Chuck 122 Blk-On L 30-1
6 6 Overextended Dettori L O'Neill Doug 122 L 50-1
7 7 Pyro Bridgmohan S X Asmussen Steven M 122 L 6-1
8 8 Globalization Castellano J J Violette, Jr. R A 122 LA 20-1
9 9 Old Man Buck Bejarano R McPeek Kenneth G 122 Blk-On LA 20-1
10 10 Tale of Ekati Coa E M Tagg Barclay 122 LA 7-2
11 11 Dixie Chatter SCR
12 12 Salute the Sarge Flores D R Guillot Eric 122 L 12-1
13 13 Wicked Style Albarado R J Arnold George R II 122 LA 10-1

Juvenile Turf

And the point of this race is....? There is a gateful of top Euro 2yos going in the Dewhurst S. on Saturday at Newmarket. Any Euros in this race must be considered lesser lights by their stables. Going against a bunch of second tier NA runners. Ho-hum.

Look for Euro youngsters who have proven they can run left-handed (Epsom, Doncaster, York, Chester, Leopardstown, Saint-Cloud..,) and/or around tight turns (Chester...,). Most 2yo races at 5f and 6f in GB/Ire/Fra are on straightaways. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Euros 'blow the turn', the way some horses do at Fairplex.

Wouldn't surprise me if some of the Americans do it too.

Is the juvy turf 12 or 10 horses. 12 is too many on that course.

12

holy cow! achill island in the juvie turf!

achill island is a sadlers wells colt out of a mare produced from one of the most bizarre matings in history!!

the dam of his is named prawn cocktail. if my memory serves me correctly, prawn cocktail is the last foal (if not the last, pretty close to the last) of the mighty producer, crimson saint (the 2nd dam of storm cat, among others).

What's so odd about this? prawn cocktails sire is artichoke, a horse i remember from my younger days as being a fairplex specialist!! a decent enough horse i suppose, but overall pretty cheap and he never sired anything of note!

here is a partial list of her progeny. note the stallions she typically saw!

Mr. Crimson Ruler(TX), 75 H By Secretariat
Terlingua(KY), 76 M By Secretariat
Encino(KY), 77 H By Nijinsky II
Secret Saint(KY), 81 M By Secretariat
Pancho Villa(KY), 82 H By Secretariat(Died 06)
Alydariel(KY), 83 M By Alydar
Royal Academy(KY), 87 H By Nijinsky II
Border Run(KY), 88 G By Secretariat
Navajo Pass(KY), 90 M By Secretariat
Prawn Cocktail(KY), 92 M By Artichocke

baffling!

Strike The Deal would have a decent chance in the Juvenile turf..... afterall Jeremy Noseda knows now to win breeders Cup races.

Annie Skates is probably more likely to go in the fillies dirt race. She could be a good bet here. Before she saw a racetrack she had been galloping all over a horse rated 90 (which is just below listed class over here). She is still imrpving and is by the sire senation Mr Greeley.

RE: The Juv

Anyone know what happened to Sargent Seattle?

He won the 2nd race at Saratoga this year and then scaratched out of a stake a few weeks later. I know Steve mentioned a pending sale...any update?

I believe they are still looking towards the Stakes at Aqueduct.

There is a ton of speed in the Juv Fillies......

That race has all the makings of a collapse.

Izarra & A to the Croft will be waiting for them. ;)

I'm glad you have said that. Annie Skates needs a strongly run race, given her stalking style of running.

If she handles the dirt (i don't see any reason why she shouldn't) she will run a big race at large odds, i imagine.

It was a little disconcerting to me that Izarra got rank and kind of ran-off a little coming out of the first turn in the Oak Leaf...which was also a pretty quick paced race.

I would love her chances if she could relax and make one late run. I'm not sold she will do that however.

She ran in spots in the Del Mar Debutante as well. I'm not 100% it isn't Espinoza though. It seems like she wants to make an early bid in all her races, but Espinoza (who ironically loves to make premature moves) seems to always grab a hold of her just as she's reaching the leaders. I think its taken the mustard out of her stretch run.

Obviously, the fact that she makes mid-race moves to begin with puts her at risk of hanging anyways, but I'd like to see what this filly would do if allowed to blow the race wide open entering the far turn.

Certainly has the turn of foot to win this, has a monster pedigree (Affluent was also a granddaughter of the disappointing Bayakoa), and physically looks imposing for a 2yo filly.

And Grace Anatomy and Smarty Deb too..

But the more I look at this, the more I think everyone is chasing Proud Spell at the end.

Missing from the record is 1990 Barren 1991 Barren. Looks like they didn't want to use up an expensive nomination when she was likely not to get in foal anyway at the age of 22. Whatever sired it, any foal of hers would sell for a decent price; this one sold for $175,000, despite being by Artichoke. Prawn Cocktail began her broodmare career in Australia, where she foaled two group winners by shuttler Danehill, so she was 'promoted' to the Northern Hemisphere (Ireland).

Crimson Saint was more than just a top broodmare - she was one of the fastest TBs I've ever seen. Set a track record for 4.5f as a 2yo, beat older males in May as a 3yo going 5f on turf. She was a flat-out speed demon with a huge engine behind. I always said that a foal of hers by Vikingson (another 20 and change-capable TB) would have made mincemeat of any QH alive.

Ibn Khaldun is out...

Gio Pointi looks like one with the kick to finish it off.

Fillies & Mares not "cheap" ?
 

It seems like in general and this season in particular that speed horses in the Filly and Mare division seem to hold better than the males.
Any thoughts on this?

Fillies & Mares have been stepping up in class and distance, and still no one is catching the speed. Where in males a class or distance change seems to leave one more vulnerable.
Again - these are only perceptions and I have no stats on this.

Still, the Juv-F does have a lot of speed and this is a unique race with a high level of quality. In the average stakes race the fast filly may be so much the class of the field by definition, where here in the BC there are several capable of winning.

Take a long look at Backseat Rhythm in the Juvenile Fillies.

This Filly is getting good at exactly the right time, displays a strong closing kick in a race seemingly overloaded with speed, has handled two turns before, a fact which some of the choices in here cannot stake claim to, and will likely be ignored in the mutuels.

Examine her races carefully.

First try was on 8/2 at Saratoga in a 62,000 msw going 5 furlongs on WF dirt with Desormeaux up. Exits the gate at 27-1 and runs a decent 4th behind a few familiar names in Irish Smoke and Syriana's Song. This horse took no $$$$ in a 7 horse field with KD in the irons. What would she have gone off at otherwise, 40-1?

Second try was on 8/26 at Saratoga in another 62,000 msw, this time going 6 furlongs on a good track, with Desormeaux off and Castellano up. At this point it was clear that Desormeaux was having an incredible meet and yet the mount Desormeaux was on that day, a Matz trained horse floated up from the morning line while Rhythm floated down going off at 5-1. She ran 5th that day, closing from last at the head of the stretch, in a big field, well back though, screaming for more distance.

This is where it gets interesting.

Third try was on the Belmont Turf going 1 1/16 in a 53,000 msw, Castellano still up. 10-1 morning line........first flash is at 7/5. 7/5??? Granted, the switch from the quirky Saratoga dirt to the Belmont turf, coupled with the significant increase in distance would surely be a help....but 7/5? Somebody in the know was dropping some em-oh-en-e-y on this horse......and they were right. She made a strong move at the head of the stretch, off at 7-2, and withstood a late charge from what turns out to be a REALLY good filly in Country Star, who you might recall went down to Keeneland and smashed her maiden with a resounding Grade I win over the likes of Irish Smoke, A To The Croft, and Grace Anatomy. (As a side note, the horse that ran third that day, Mushka, runs in the 4th today at Belmont, her first race since that day)

Next out was going a mile on the dirt in the Frizzette. She runs a clear 2nd to 3/5 monster Indain Blessing, who had things on her own terms that day.

Backseat Rythym will be Reynolds only starter over the two days so the undivided attention should make her feel like a queen. She is sitting on a career performance. She will likely be double, even triple the odds of Smoke, Croft, and Anatomy. Backseat Rhythm will be the DEFINITION of overlay.

The distance will be right, the pace will be right, the price will be right.
Look for Backseat Rythym to blow up the toteboard and get the day started with a bang. I'll be backing up the Brinks truck.

Good Luck!

May a Derby Trailer lead the way to the window, and in this case, the tax window.

Later.

ED

I loved that one in her last and was a bit disappointed that she couldn't catch Indian Blessing after that one ran her last quarter in 27 and change. The good thing is that there seems to be a ton of speed in the Juvenile Fillies race, but I'm having a hard time (at this point, I've still got a week!) making a case for a horse who couldn't catch a leader who was stumbling home through an insanely slow final quarter.

I'm sure she'll be on some of my tickets, but I'd like her a whole lot better if she would've cut down that gap a bit more in her last considering it was basically dangled right in front of her by the winner and she couldn't take it.

I think if you watch her only two turn race (actually one turn going 1 1/16th) she got in a much better position, closer to the front and was able to move BEFORE Country Star, enabling her to get home. The one turn race (shorter distance) left her too much to do with too little ground with which to do it. I just suspect that she is moving forward, will get first run, and hopefully pick them up without letting someone come from the clouds and go on by. Indian Blessing put it away early that day and Rhythm did make up about 10 lengths in the last half, going pretty wide on the turn to finish 3.5 lengths behind.

I concede that she has to move forward here to make it happen, but value will be in her corner, which means it will be in mine.

With a week to go, everyone is searching for confident angles, myself included.

Ed

All of Backseat Rhythm's races have been around one turn.

Just watched the replay again, and yes, one turn at Belmont for a 1 1/16th on the turf. 1 1/8th on the inner is two turns. My bad....but I still feel that the two turns will be to her liking, not sure the other fillies will agree.

Thanks for pointing that out, I missed it.

Strike the Deal is my top pick.

Ibn whatever & Domestic Fund under

Majestic Warrior out. I am glad they were able to find what the problem was -- rather than push the envelope, run him, and make matters worse. I'd really like to see this colt come back healthy, fit, 100% and ready to go. Sounds like he could be back in a few days.

Eric

Overextended Juvenile/Juvenile Turf Hollywood ParK 5 furlongs 1.00:40
Gio Ponti Juvenile Turf Belmont Park 4 furlongs 48:18
Shore Do Juvenile/Juvenile Turf Monmouth Park 5 furlongs 1.02:00
Cherokee Triangle Juvenile Turf Churchill Training 5 furlongs 1.00:40
Your Round Juvenile Turf Keeneland 5 furlongs 1.02:20
Texas Fever Juvenile Turf/Juvenile Keeneland 5 furlongs 1.01:40
Old Man Buck Juvenile/Juvenile Turf Keeneland 5 furlongs 59:80
The Leopard Juvenile Turf Belmont Park 4 furlongs 50:


Backseat Rhythm Juvenile Fillies Belmont Park 6 furlongs 1.14:23
A to the Croft Juvenile Fillies Keeneland 5 furlongs 59:80
Grace Anatomy Juvenile Fillies Keeneland 5 furlongs 1.03:00
Tasha's Miracle Juvenile Fillies Santa Anita 6 furlongs 1.12:00
Indian Blessing Juvenile Fillies Belmont Park 5 furlongs 58:42
Irish Smoke Juvenile Fillies Keeneland 5 furlongs 58:40
Izarra Juvenile Fillies Santa Anita 6 furlongs 1.14:20
Phantom Income Juvenile Fillies Aqueduct 4 furlongs 47:61
Smarty Deb Juvenile Fillies Monmouth Park 5 furlongs 1.00:20


Wicked Style Juvenile Keeneland 5 furlongs 1.00:80
Globalization Juvenile Aqueduct 5 furlongs 1.00:23
Salute the Sarge Juvenile Hollywood Park 5 furlongs 1.02:20

She has a shot but the Fav is pretty good and this one needs to get much better fast or get an enormous break to win.. She looks a bit MOTO in this race and will certainly be a bit of an underlay even with the fav being over bet as well

I'm taking Phantom Income with that inside speed(to hold on for 3rd.)90% chance Coa will fan lil wide into the 1st turn.Just a guess.

Cry and Catch Me is out..... :(

Didn't think she had much of a shot with so much pace in the race, anyway.

The Juvenile is looking to be an interesting race.
War Pass has been THE superstar of the 2yo season so far. This race should have a nice mix of styles and maybe some longshots will challenge as well.

Juvenile Fillies, 2 yo girls subject to sudden maturation-and emotional development-I'll take an educated stab at an apparent headcase, Phantom Income. Will come from off the pace

However, due to everything looking ripe for Indian Blessing, I'll box the two in the exacta

In the Juvenile Turf, not much history to go on, especially as far as soft ground is concerned. Cannonball has handled yielding turf, just 5 days prior to the race. 2-2 on grass, I'll look for that 50-1

Will use Cannonball and Gio Ponti in the doubles and Pick 3 with Discreet Cat

Does anyone have a idea why Doug O'Neill is using Jockey Dettori in both of his 2 year old races ? A new trainer/jockey angle ? :confused:

And I might add, that her pedigree says an off track is right up her alley.

Backseat Rythym

One of the longest shots of the day to hit the board, photo'd out for 2nd, gets 3rd and pays 9.60 to do so, going off at 19-1.

I take little solace in this fact as I had her to win and place, and on the top and bottom of exactas, including with Indian Blessing.

She did run well though.