10/13: KEE; CRC; Asst. Stakes
 

All during Saratoga, D. Wayne Lukas was getting markedly improved performances from his 2 year olds in their 2nd or 3rd starts. Friday at Keeneland, DWL sent out second-timer Cape Discovery (15-1 ML) in the very tough 7th and scored at 28-1. With predicted results following in the final three legs, the P4 returned $1,800 ($1).

2 mistakes (confidence and ticket structure) were culprits in the beat as Ravel proved trustworthy at 3-5 in the 2nd leg. While the nice $234.50 trifecta, (thanks to value player All Man third at an insane 44-1), softened the blow of missing the Quad, Ravel was embraceable as a single after all. Using Flying Circle and Stylish Wildcat ($7.40 winner) produced Leg C in the non-single suggestion, and 'Most Likely' Tempo Five ($13.60 winner) closed out the string for a $57.70 P3. Knowing that the first leg was going to be the tricky leg, an approach of 6x2x1x4 was the idea with a single, and 4x2x2x3 was an alternate plunge. Only an 8x1x2x3 (singling Ravel) would have caught the score, and I wasn't confident enough in Ravel's comebacker or Cape Discovery's ability to top several in the 7th to play it that way.

LRL and CRC host state-oriented stakes cards today, and KEE offers the Perryville and QEII as part of the Late P4 there. We'll look at Miami, Lexington and a couple of other graded events. Weather forecasts for the big venues below:

BELMONT PARK: Sunshine expected. High in the lower 60s.
CALDER RACE COURSE: Rain with a high of 82.
HAWTHORNE: Mostly sunny with a high of 61.
KEENELAND: Mostly sunny with a high of 65.
LAUREL PARK: Sunshine likely. High nearing 70.
SANTA ANITA: Mostly sunny with a high of 65.


KEENELAND

Superfectas in all..

7th: 9th Perryville, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3)

Best Value: #6 Steve's Double 6-1: Last best yet and time off to recoup.. WON
Most Likely: #4 Les Grands Trois 8-5: Victimized by Sciacca NY-bred in Bay Shore.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Shrewd Operator 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Chihulykee 4-1 5th

$1 Exacta (6-4) $33.90
$1 Trifecta (6-4-1) $168.90


8th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 7f (P3)

Best Value: #6 Valentine Fever 4-1: Leparoux back on Lloyd Madison homebred.. WON
Most Likely: #3 School Girl 3-1: McGee bay chased Dreaming of Liz.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Easy Profit 6-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Democrat Taxes 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (6-1) $80.40
$1 Trifecta (6-1-3) $276.20


9th: 24th QE II (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f-T (DD)

Best Value: #8 Costume 6-1: Doubt ML is post time price on Frankel's Danehill daughter.. 4th
Most Likely: #1 Bit of Whimsy 5-1: Tagg seeks 2 grass gal stakes here, BEL ('Capote').. WON
Exotics Use: #7 Dreaming of Anna 3-1: Dangerous of late with careful Catalano handling.. 2nd
Super Add: #4 Classic Neal 6-1: Respect KMc red that continues to improve.. 6th

$1 Exacta (1-7) $32.80


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9.75f

Best Value: #1 Beckwith Street 6-1: Tough with repeat of maiden-breaker.. 4th
Most Likely: #3 Curvature 4-1: Visit to Cincy poly produced best last out.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Rovic's Wealth 15-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Twisting Road 15-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-6
8: 3-6
9: 1-7-8 $1 P3 (6/6/1) $516.40
10: 1-3

4x2x3x2 = $48



CALDER

Superfectas in all..

5th: The Cassidy, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, P4)

Best Value: #7 Permanent Makeup 15-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Yonagucci 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Robbie's Gal 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Sacred Realm 3-1 4th


6th: Spend a Buck (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #3 Olympic 8-1 9th
Most Likely: #9 Electrify 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Rehoboth 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Summer Book 6-1 3rd


7th: Calder Oaks, 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3)

Best Value: #6 COZZI CAPITAL 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Lady Digby 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Snow Cone 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 The Real Future 15-1 7th

$1 Exacta (6-3) $16.50


8th: My Dear Girl, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #3 Calico Bay 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Silk Ridge 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Asi Asi 8-1 DNF
Super Add: #7 Awesome Dreamer 4-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-4) $13.40
$1 Trifecta (3-4-7) $50.60


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 2-3-6-7
6: 3-9
7: 4-6
8: 3-4-9

4x2x2x3 = $48


9th: Calder Derby (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, P4)

Best Value: #8 Fearless Eagle 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Fair Weather Stan 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Soldier's Dancer 5-2 WON
Super Add: #7 SCR


10th: In Reality, 2yo, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #1 Sir Dave 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Wise Answer 8-5 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Inner Light 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 SCR


11th: Shocker TH, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3)

Best Value: #2e Rose entry 15-1 4th/10th
Most Likely: #1e McDonald entry 8-5 6th/8th
Exotics Use: #7 Cat Can Do 2-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Gadolinium 20-1 2nd


12th: Birdonthewire, 2yo, 5.5f (DD)

Best Value: #8 Turnpike Tommy 6-1
Most Likely: #1 Carson's Legacy 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #9 Unlimited Dreams 7-2
Super Add: #5 Surrealdeal 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-5) $21.50


@$50 P4 Play:

9: 2-8-10
10: 1-2-7
11: 1e
12: 1-5-6-8-9-10

3x3x1x6 = $54



BELMONT

9th: 30th Althea (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #1 I'm in Love 10-1: Exotics booster on best.. 2nd
Most Likely: #3 DANCE AWAY CAPOTE 8-5: Tagg has her dialed in.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Criminologist 2-1: Preferable to Shirl from pace standpoint.. WON

$1 Exacta (5-1) $29.75
$1 Trifecta (5-1-3) $60.00



HAWTHORNE

8th: Hawthorne Derby (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)

GREAT betting race and standing against #9 Twilight Meteor (4-1) 2nd who is only marginally better than most here..

Best Value: #3 Bold Hawk 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Voy Por Uno Mas 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Starvinsky 5-1 5th
Super Add(s): #5 All I Can Get 20-1 10th



SANTA ANITA

9th: Oak Tree Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Ten a Penny 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Stoneside 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Asperity 4-1 10th
Super Add: #2 Karazi 12-1 5th


Good luck!
Steve

Calder is on the turf(Yielding) for races 7 and 9 only. Dirt track is Sloppy

Still going with Olympic in the Spend A Buck ( race 6). This frontrunner should like it wet, despite the slop loss when under Mott. Sucked for Mott overall, but has run well for Frankel and , currently, Wolfson

It seems like it has rained every single day for 5 months at Calder.. I know they have the "Calder cloud" down there, the rain that passes by regularly, but this has been relentless for months.

I have to pass the Oak Tree Derby

In the War Chant Stakes, though seemingly as contentious as the Derby, I do like Warrior Song to be up to the task

4 MTP at CRC in the Dear Girl, and the 8-1 more than acceptable on Calico Bay as an alternative to Silk Ridge.. I'm using 3-7-9...

Ding! Bet down to 11-2, but OK... And after a dreadful start too.. Fine job by Cruz to not panic and allow Kaplan's filly to settle.

Nice call on Calico Bay Steve.

Thx P..

Bruce (S2S) saw it coming too and had him on top/triple.. Just had to take a stand against Silk Ridge.. Moved backward in last and figured to still be feeling effects of one two back. I just watched replay. This one belongs to Cruz. Absolutely brilliant to let her relax and then come with the one big run...

Ice cold!!!!

Yes sir at KEE.. Theriot again this Saturday! Steve's Double.. 12-1! (And the tri..)

Way to go Steve, after I just totally screwed up Belmont by tossing the 8 at the last second, at least I am alive to the Keeneland pk4!

:D

Nice! Thank you so much! ;)

Wow. Did the 6 come back and win that? Unreal!!!! Another top selection by Steve!~!

:o ..

Square number too at 5-1.. Let's hope we can keep it rolling through the 2nd halves the CRC/KEE 4's...

Steve, pmac and ltjmac and myself combined your selections with hooves and played a $1 Keeneland late pk4:

7: 4,6
8: 3,6,9,10
9: 1,4,5,7,8
10: 1,3,4,5

This would be a real nice one boys, great job so far. And another triple to boot. Keep it going!

Cool! Good luck the rest of the way guys.. Smart way to approach it with a $160 tick split 3 ways... And you've got nice coverage!

Steve, another great call! Does anyone have the willpays on the 1,3,4,5?

1) 2542
3) 1320
4) 11140
5) 17404

Good Luck!

Thank you for posting!

I'm sorry guys.. That was a spot you really needed to combine Matt and I as he had the winner in the mix 3rd... Sorry. That hurt.

It was a good run at it Steve, nice cappin today!

Steve.....
 

Great job today, I too had a tough beat with Borel in the Keeneland finally. Man when Calvin got the rail I thought he would get it done, but Gomez got the jump on him. That's racing. :)

Steve,

Nice run today at KEE!

We kicked in $50 each for some pick4 action and had a shot at some nice numbers.

Little misstep by us in last leg going for higher prices. Still better than we did at Belmont and we didn't even open the paper at KEE...

Pat, Mc, Point, Riot..

Thx for the bon mots.. Have to say though, that despite what was a very good day handicapping, it was a largely unsatisfaying performance on my part.

Unless you caught the P3 within the P4 at KEE; the Trifectas at KEE and/or BEL, whatever; or Steve's Double particularly, you wouldn't have made money... because I barely did. A $10/$10 on Steve's Double made the difference for me having a +/- day..

I was bitterly disappointed to miss the KEE P4. I thought the 1-3 had it covered.. And Calder's Late 4 stunned me when the McDonald entry did not lift a hoof in the 11th. And then the 'most likely' wins the night cap and I'm kicking myself for singling the entry and spreading in the 12th...

So overall, basically a day of pyrrhic victories... (Unless Ten a Penny wins the Oak Tree Derby here....;))

Steve, you had alot of winners, especially at Calder. I too had an unsatisfying day at the windows, despite cashing some tickets. And you can thank me for Sciacca's win at Belmont... I had 50-1 Trickanometry to win:mad:

Cannot BELIEVE they let the Tagg runner (your "most likely") in the QEII go off at almost 7-1. Great call, I was all over her too. Absolutely unloaded on that one. Two logicals behind turns a $350 tri. Crazy Keeneland! Well done today on your selections Stevie! :)

Great job Steve..I schnitzeled a few dollars for my youbet account.

Thanks!

Just heard the replays online!! Reminded me, belated thanks for the picks; we hit the P3!:) ! Wish NYRA allowed(?) P3 on first leg of P4.