Presque Isle Downs
 

There seems to be plenty of value at this track. Horses are coming from all over the place.

Watching the paddock for the 1st race today Court Approval the #6 horse is going like a bucking bronco.

Should go for the lead and fade in the stretch.

Anyway.. the Tapeta surface seems to agree with these horses

the win % is spread pretty evenly amongst the different style runners, which i think is goodness.

well... I should say that there isn't a bias
today it's been all front end
but there were races earlier where they were coming from all over the place. Trainers are shipping in from a wide variety of tracks.

other than that you just like to disagree don't you

My buddy was sharing his theory on PID that the lighter weight horses were faring better at PID as opposed to the bigger ones. I've only watched 2 or 3 races from there, does anyone give his 'theory' any creedence?

i've kinda thought the weights of the horses should be included in the pp. but they are not. how does your buddy know their weights ? brings to mind one of the biggest horses i ever saw in a paddock was Country Only. Man, he was big and wide and he could motor. a huge horse. he stands in WV. all 17 hands of him.

He works there.

Could the field sizes be a factor in the different styles of winners?

I like the racing at PID that i have watched. It seems fair although I dont think the lead is where i would prefer to be.

I would prefer to be at Smith&Wollensky's with a porterhouse and a Maker's Mark, while we are on the topic of where we would like to be...

I am a sheet player so I have a bias but the place has played very fairly if you can read the sheets and factor in the little nuggets like horses off a layoff who have had a race on this synthetic track much like Del Mar seemed to move forward.

So if a horse with decent numbers and had a race at PID this month where it finished 2nd,3rd or so the next start they are very competitive.

My peculiar way of thinking anyway.....and I'll probably try to use it at SA soon.

pid fields getting awfully small

where are you getting that info from? Almost every race in the next three days is filled.

Not with that type of money available. Meet ends in a few days so sometimes trainers start pulling out. Quite a few scratches there on a daily basis.

The criticism of PID is that it is not horseman friendly. No living space for the help. Tough to get licenses. The barns are not great.

Money though is the most important thing, and the purses are unbelievable. How often are you going to get 70K for maidens.

Has Rosemary won a race yet?

Yes.

Sounded good today DrugSy.

I did a half hour earlier today on Steve's show talking about PID.

One of the stats I mentioned, is that speed has actually done very well on the Tapeta there.

Going into today, horses leading at the first call had won 40 of the 168 races run (23.8%) - and some longshots have flat out stole races on the lead - including winners at odds of 45/1, 32/1, and several in the 10/1-to-22/1 range.

Speed is especially dangerous later on in the card - this is either due to the weather change effecting the track - or the fact that the track is being repeatedly harrowed after every race.

Here's a real oddball stat for you guys, PID schedules 8 races every day, in the day's 7th race, the horse leading after the first call has won 10 out of 21 races. Five of the winners at odds of 5/1 or more.

Speed has also been outstanding in Race 8. Though, the nightcap typically features cheaper horses who tend to be ridden more agressively early - while Race 7 is where the days feature race is carded.

Andy Beyer made note in an article a few days ago that the track often speeds up later in the day - the trend is faster times and a more speed friendly surface later on.

As for the "bias" - it's the fact that the rail has been dead pretty much the entire PID meet. It took the riders a surprisingly long time to figure that out, but now you see them all pretty much avoiding the rail altogther.

Post position #1 is 2-for-47 at six furlongs coming into today - and post positon #2 at six furlongs is 1-for-47 coming into today. That's a combined 3-for-94!

* One of the winners breaking from post one was Masters Stakes winner Miss Macy Sue - who was AWESOME in victory and has a legit look in the newly added Breeders Cup F&M Sprint in my opinion.

* The other winner who won from post one at six furlongs was a 1/5 shot shipping in off of a dominant Del Mar victory, to run in a PA Bred race. The horse couldn't lose on paper, and won by 2.5

* And the lone winner who broke from post two at six furlongs - came back to just miss winning at 25/1 last week.

Other interesting PID Tapeta trends:

* Horses who've won over the surface have come back to go 10-for-42 so far. The avg winner paying $10.20. Meaning they've produced a 21.5% profit on the betting dollar. So, it looks like there's something to the theory that horses who handle the surface well deserve a strong look 2nd time over it.

* Turf sprinters have been outstanding! Horses exiting 5 furlong or 5.5 furlong turf sprints have collectively done outstanding on the Tapeta. Especially stretching out to 6 and 6.5 furlong sprints. All horses with less than exciting dirt form - but sold form sprinting on the turf deserve a strong look.

* There have been four horses at the meet so far who have won at odds of 45/1 or greater. In two cases, these horses had LOUSY dirt form and pretty decent turf form. In the other two cases, you had two maiden with terrible lifetime form....but, both had never tried the turf, and both had clear-cut turf breeding top and bottom.

Thanks. It was fun.

Great info. I do enjoy playing that track. full fields and a good chance at real value.

Thanks again. That was a pleasure to read.

very thorough, very interesting. tx much.

Asmussen has now had a trio of expensive maidens with interesting breeding come up short at PID lately.

In tonights 5th race, a 3yo full sibling to Haskell winner and Belmont 2nd place finisher Bluegrass Cat finished 2nd in a MSW race, in career start #2. He was 3rd in his career debut earlier in the meet. He actually ran a pretty nice race, but had no responce at all to the Amoss trained runner who laid over the field.

In last Saturdays 3rd race, Asmussen had a 2yo debuter by Vindication that's a half sibling to Grade 1 winning millionaire Eddington. It cost 700K as a yearling. It was soundly defeated in a race won by a 250K Successful Appeal yearling buy for Amoss. A Paula Capestro trained son of Fu Peg who debuted at Del Mar ran quite well finishing 2nd.

Twice this meet, Silver Light, a Zayat owned 3yo half sibling to Super Derby winner Strong Contender has failed to win as the heavy favorite for Asmussen. He embarssingly lossed to a Glenn Wismer trained son of Cozar that scored at 33/1. The Wismer horse is acutally a full sibling to Calculating Man - who established the track record for six furlongs at a big odds upset, in an ALW race run late in the inaugural Keeneland polytrack meet. Calculating Man suffered a fatal breakdown right after the wire in the big win, and became the first horse to die from a racing injury suffered on the KEE poly.

I-drugs,

Thank you for the analyisis and other info. It has been an interesting and unpredictable meet so any insight is helpful. Thanks for taking the time to do it.