Cotillion Handicap
 

Anyone else think it is a total steal if Moon Catcher isn't favored over Octave? At a mile and a sixteenth it should be perfect for Moon Catcher.

Philadelphia Park - September 22nd, 2007 - Race 9
Fitz Dixon Cotillion H. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:01 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Sex: Fillies
Purse: $750,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Octave (KY) 3 Filly 123 John R. Velazquez
2 Bear Now (KY) 3 Filly 119 Jerry Baird
3 Moon Catcher (MD) 3 Filly 120 Carlos H. Marquez, Jr.
4 Talkin About Love (NJ) 3 Filly 118 Stewart Elliott
5 Humble Janet (AR) 3 Filly 116 Shaun Bridgmohan
6 Syd N Carly's Rose (PA) 3 Filly 111 Frankie Pennington
7 Exchanging Fire (FL) 3 Filly 115 Edwin L. King, Jr.
8 Silverinyourpocket (KY) 3 Filly 116 David Cohen

You're kidding....right?

Not at all, you don't think the distance will favor her? I wanted nothing to do with her at a mile and a quarter but back at a mile and a sixteenth I think she could be very dangerous.

You made two points....one was that Moon Catcher should be favored. To me that borders on insanity. No, she should absolutely NOT be favored over Octave.

I'm not Octave's biggest fan by any stretch, and Moon Catcher is one of three that can win the race, but Octave is very much the horse to beat. If she loses I think I prefer Talkin About Love.

I suppose she could be a need the lead type that will burn out trying to get it in this race but I don't think too much of the cheap speed that will be dueling with her.

Exchange Rate is a real speed and Bear Now is also supposed to go.

Octave is a solid filly that I've come to respect but I'm not sold on her at a mile and a sixteenth. To date she's lost at that distance to Dreaming of Anna, Christmas Kid, and Mistical Plan. I fully expect Moon Catcher to join that list unless an insane speed duel develops.

Octave's just a horse. But she's held solid form for over a year and proved it on many different tracks. Moon Catcher ran good races at Delaware, hardly an indication of genuine ability, and Talkin About Love has beaten lessers with perfect setups. The others are in a different time zone.

You say Octave lost to Dreaming of Anna....yes when she was second to her in the BC and Dreaming of Anna rode a strong bias, and slow pace, to victory. She lost to an in form Mistical Plan off a four month layoff. And, her second to Christmas Kid was on polytrack, while Christmas Kid had form, and Octave had a tougher trip than the winner. I'm not defending her.....I'm just discussing her realistically. She beat Lady Joanne at 1 1/8, but lost to her at 1 1/4, yet you think 1 1/16th is not the right distance for her? You seem to be splitting hairs.

Trust me, I'm not rooting for Octave, but she's absolutely the deserving favorite and the horse to beat. On paper Moon Catcher is not only worse but also at no tactical advantage.

Had JV not gone for the rail and had it cut off by Calvin then Octave might have beat Lady Joanne at both distances. So you know that isn't a valid way to say she will like less distance. Either way I think the distance is absolutely perfect for Moon Catcher and less than optimal for Octave. I will always bet a horse in that situation and will do so here as long as Octave goes off as the favorite as I expect she will.

Good luck.

I guess part of my problem is that I think very little of Moon Catcher.

I like Humble Janet. The Sumwon angle is strong in this one.

I think the distance of the race helps Octave.

It feels like a very chalky weekend for some of the bigger stakes races.

Tastyville is the only horse who can beat Any Given Saturday, not that he has to be second, but the only mildly possible upsetter. That being said....he has very little chance.

The Gallant Bloom is the worst Grade 2 in the history of the game.

I can't believe I just read this. I could understand saying that u think Moon Catcher is going to win the race for whatever reason. But Octave will be and deserves to be the overwhelming favorite here. And I can't stand her.

Moon Catcher has higher beyer figures at the distance. I think she has a chance.

And even less of Delaware Park for the number of times you disparage the place....

... Moon Catcher has the best TGH number in the race at the distance and did beat the likes of Cotton Blossom, High Heels and Bear Now in a Grade II stake for what ever the grading system is worth these days at 8.5F.

I don't really have a strong desire to play Moon Catcher either but it wouldn't pass for evidence of utter insanity to take the horse with the best figure at the distance even if it did win a grade II at that State Fair track in Wilmington Delaware.

What the hell, when horses like Hard Spun and Barbaro come out of a snake pit like this winning the races they have the last couple years what can you expect??

The race isn't being run at the Spa where at times some Delaware shippers perform poorly, it's in Philly where Delaware form is no where near as much of a negative.

What, no love for Syd N Carly's Rose? I have always felt that running seventh (out of eight) in an ungraded stakes race was the perfect setup for a G2 race featuring five graded stakes winners.
I agree with DaHoss that this one (like a lot of races featuring Octave) is probably a no-bet. The only thing that makes less sense to me than betting Octave here, is trying to beat her here. I'll pass.

Is that angle listed in the DRF ?

This happens to be TGH race of the week so the sheets are there for everyone to see. I don't think we can say "Delaware doesn't seem to translate...." in all cases. It is true that many a heavy favorite shipper "at" Delaware have gone down hard on the dirt track. When we are talking about Delaware shippers the poor record at Saratoga is hardly the standard. The Spa at times plays like a glorified 6 week BC with the quality of horses in the majority of races run there. Optional claimers filled with graded stakes runners are not the norm at most tracks.

Having said that Trombetta shipped to the spa this summer and had some success so blanket devaluing is probably not good for your bankroll. Some very good trainers with national presence like Matz and Jones do alot of work there and bring success elsewhere. I still think Lake's New York failures have a chance of reversing somewhat. All I am saying is you can't throw out all stakes horses from Delaware.

For this race..

I like the angle about late developing 3 year olds who have improved recently continuing winning ways in this race and will try to beat Otave as well with Bear Now/Moon Catcher/Octave,Talking Bout Love and let the race hopefully bring value boxing combinations of these.

If Octave wins the race I lose if not I got a shot at decent payoffs.

I agree 110% Octave was flying down the stretch in The Alabama, Calvin rode Lady Joanne much smarter than JV rode Octave. JV had no where to go trying to get to that inside. A little more space along that rail and Octave wins the Alabama, IMHO.

She's wins the Cottilion with ease.

The problem/question I have regarding Moon Catcher is, while her race 2 back was great and stands out in this field, it was what is termed an "isolated top" (by me anyway). That race was nearly 6 points better than anything she had run before, and in her last race she only got back to her previous level. I don't feel all that comfortable playing horses to get back to "isolated tops", unless the odds are extreme.
Any other TG users, (Steve?) have any opinions on what I just stated?

I would rate Bear Now and Talkin About Love higher, because they have both run their tops (2) twice.