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-   -   Breeders Cup Filly/Mare sprint (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16325)

lemoncrush 08-27-2007 08:58 AM

Breeders Cup Filly/Mare sprint
 
I think this was the wrong year to bring this race aboard on Breeders Cup weekend.
Is this divison terrible, or what?
If the best we can get in a G1 at Saratoga is Maryfield and Baroness Thatcher battling it out (with once feared Pussycat Doll clearly no longer interested in racing at all), then that's a sad state of affairs.

Should we just line up Dream Rush and La Traviata for a match race instead?

Sightseek 08-27-2007 09:00 AM

River's Prayer has been having a good year too. Besides all the divisions are pretty weak.

Hail2Reason 08-27-2007 09:16 AM

La Traviata and Dream Rush make it worth watching. The both look unbeatable right now, although I think La Traviata will win.

philcski 08-27-2007 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I agree. I'd love to hear what division isn't thin this year.

3yo males, and the turf division is deep if somewhat unspectacular.

Otherwise...?

Sightseek 08-27-2007 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
3yo males, and the turf division is deep if somewhat unspectacular.

Otherwise...?

Did you see that Shadwell colt yesterday...won by like 14, what did you get on your figures?

SniperSB23 08-27-2007 09:28 AM

Weird year in that there are no deep divisions and very few standouts. With the exception of Rags in the Distaff is there any other race you can even feel reasonably confident singling a horse?

SniperSB23 08-27-2007 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm not sure I would be confident singling Rags at this point. I realize that is on the surface she is far and away the most talented distaffer around, but I am still skeptical she returns.

Yeah, obviously we need to see a start between now and then to feel confident but I can't even think of another division that I'd feel even close to confident singling someone.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-27-2007 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Weird year in that there are no deep divisions

Injuries have had a lot to do with this.

The best horses in the 3yo male division have stayed sound anyway...

Horses like Discreet Cat, Invasor, Rags To Riches and Magnficence - the real star talents in this game - haven't been able to answer the bell.

SniperSB23 08-27-2007 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I just went through them all in my head and you are right.

Unless there is a big skakeup between now and then you are going to need a serious bankroll to take on the P6. Will make the rolling P3s even more fun though.

philcski 08-27-2007 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek
Did you see that Shadwell colt yesterday...won by like 14, what did you get on your figures?

just ran some prelim numbers, got a 106 Beyer equivalent (versus a 107 for SS in the Travers). He ran off the page!

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Yeah, obviously we need to see a start between now and then to feel confident but I can't even think of another division that I'd feel even close to confident singling someone.

this may sound crazy but if Gottcha Gold goes in the BC Dirt Mile, I'd feel somewhat confident singling him. He OWNS that joint right now.

lemoncrush 08-27-2007 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I'm not sure I would be confident singling Rags at this point. I realize that is on the surface she is far and away the most talented distaffer around, but I am still skeptical she returns.

The funny thing is, I received an update from Wynn CAsino on the future odds on the BC races. Rags price right now is 8/5, which is obviously ludicrous. I would guess if she makes it to the race, you could get even money on her on Breeders Cup day.

Cannon Shell 08-27-2007 11:49 AM

The 2 year old filly turf division is very strong.



Wait ....

they dont have a BC race yet......

maybe next year when they add the turf sprint and Breeders cup starter allowance

Rileyoriley 08-27-2007 11:55 AM

The best filly and mare sprinters have always run well with the colts in the past. I personally don't like this filly and mare sprint race.

Cannon Shell 08-27-2007 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley
The best filly and mare sprinters have always run well with the colts in the past. I personally don't like this filly and mare sprint race.

I think there have been 3 in 23 something years. Hardly a trend.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-27-2007 12:07 PM

While just three have won, there certainly has been more than three fillies to run well.

In fact, in a 10 year span from 1986 to 1995 -- a filly or mare finished either first or 2nd in that race in eight of those ten years.

Xtra Heat and Honest Lady had a couple strong 2nd this decade.

The fillies who've entered have certainly outrun their odds - there have been years where no filly even ran.

Rileyoriley 08-27-2007 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
I think there have been 3 in 23 something years. Hardly a trend.

Maybe only 3 winners but they've held their own against the boys. Honest Lady, Meafara, and Safely Kept (2nd in 1989) were certainly competitive.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-27-2007 12:10 PM

Pine Tree Lane and Soviet Problem both had 2nd's.

Rileyoriley 08-27-2007 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Pine Tree Lane and Soviet Problem both had 2nd's.

Yes! Forgot about them. Thank you!

Rileyoriley 08-27-2007 12:12 PM

I'm ashamed to have forgotten one of my favorites-Xtra Heat. Forgive me girl.

ninetoone 08-27-2007 12:15 PM

I hate Squirtle Squirt

Rileyoriley 08-27-2007 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ninetoone
I hate Squirtle Squirt


Me too!

Cannon Shell 08-27-2007 12:44 PM

ok we are up to 5 legit filly sprinters in 23 years

Cannon Shell 08-27-2007 12:47 PM

There are many more long distance turf fillies and mares that are competitive with colts than sprinters yet the FM turf race is usually among the best and most competitive races each year. And we never hear a cry to get rid of that race. Just because there have been some outstanding fillies that sprint does not mean that there should not be a seperate race for them.

philcski 08-27-2007 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
There are many more long distance turf fillies and mares that are competitive with colts than sprinters yet the FM turf race is usually among the best and most competitive races each year. And we never hear a cry to get rid of that race. Just because there have been some outstanding fillies that sprint does not mean that there should not be a seperate race for them.

The race Maryfield won on the BC undercard last year (the Very Subtle) was essentially the F&M Sprint we will see this year. Was entertaining and competitive, and the filly that would have been favored had she gone (Malibu Mint) got drowned in the actual BC Sprint.

ArlJim78 08-27-2007 01:54 PM

Miraculous Miss looks like she could be a good sprinter, although she does her running usually too late. If it is a hot pace in the BC FM sprint she could roll home late or at least hit the board.

The Indomitable DrugS 08-27-2007 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
ok we are up to 5 legit filly sprinters in 23 years

Desert Stormer (who would have been the longest shot on the board if not coupled in the field.)

Very Subtle

Safely Kept

Meafera

Soviet Problems

Xtra Heat

Honest Lady

Pine Tree Lane

That's 8 different filies or mares in the last 20 years who have either won or finished 2nd.

Meafara was second twice - and Safely Kept won once and was 2nd the other time.

You do realize that rarely are more than one or two fillies entered in this race, and the field size is seemingly always between 12-to-14 horses?

SentToStud 08-27-2007 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Desert Stormer (who would have been the longest shot on the board if not coupled in the field.)

Very Subtle

Safely Kept

Meafera

Soviet Problems

Xtra Heat

Honest Lady

Pine Tree Lane

That's 8 different filies or mares in the last 20 years who have either won or finished 2nd.

Meafara was second twice - and Safely Kept won once and was 2nd the other time.

You do realize that rarely are more than one or two fillies entered in this race, and the field size is seemingly always between 12-to-14 horses?

he probalby was just counting the fillies in his barn.


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