Early predictions for The Arc
 

Just for fun... anyone wanna make an early prediction?

I've said Vodka all along but I need to change my early pick to Peeping Fawn if she goes.....

Saddex to hit the board.

Possible.....

Authorized
Manduro
Zambezi Sun
Dylan Thomas
Soldier Of Fortune
Peeping Fawn
Mandesha
Meisho Samson (..... I believe he's sick right now but hopefully he'll be better)
Saddex
Youmzain
Scorpion

Zambezi or MANDURO!!

I'm still not sure. I love Manduro and i hope he wins, but he has so much speed, i'm not convinced he will stay 12 furlongs.

If it's good ground i will probably go for Dylan Thomas.

I like Soldier of Fortune in there, although Authorized looks tough but currently at 2-1 at Ladbrokes I can't take that price. Zambezi Sun sure is taking a ton of money. Interesting.

Manduro being out takes quite a gloss out of this race. I know a lot can change between now and October, but the ground was very fast in Paris yesterday, and that is almost unheard of. Most of western Europe has had next to no rain in the last month (what a change from the "summer")

It's quites possible that this year's Arc could be run on good or faster ground. If it is, Dylan Thomas will take a huge amount of beating.

He would still be my pick at the moment...... but it will probably change at least once before the big day :D

I'm starting to think he's got an awfully good shot.

Doctor Dino is now possible.....

Doctor Dino would add some spice to this race and would be in with a shot.

Well for one, the weathermen have been predicting a very dry autumn for most of western europe, any rain we have meant to had did not arrive.

Yesterday at Longchamp they raced on what some were calling a "firm" racing surface which is almost unheard of for the Paris track.

If it's going to become very soft it will have to start raining quickly and that doesn't look likely, certainly not this week anyway.

If Doctor Dino runs, he would add another G1 winner but IMO, would have no shot. I know he is an improving 5yo but he has to contend with a fair few rapidly improving 3yos and has to reverse form with Dylan Thomas from earlier on this year.
Id still stick with Zambezi knowing that Bary left a ton of work to do.

Each day we get closer to the Arc the more confident i become about Dylan Thomas.

I think there will have to be some serious rain to fall in a few days for the ground to become soft.

Longchamp were calling the ground "good" for Sunday's meeting, yet trainers and jockeys were all saying it was riding firm. The very fast ground has also been blamed for Manduro's injury, but that we will never know.

If the ground comes up the same on Arc day most of these might as well not show up. On fast ground, Dylan Thomas is a completely different horse.

Sagara possible.....

Interesting to hear Magnier AND Fallon both nominate France (more specifically the Arc) for Yeats :eek:

It's possible that Yeats, Scorpion and Dylan will all head there. Doesn't look like they are willing to take the risk with going to Melbourne this year.

If they are represented, it will probably just be Scorpion.

Getaway and Poet Laureate now possible.....

Passage of Time now possible.....

Looks like Peeping Fawn is done for the year but will be back next year.

Yeats or Septimus could join Soldier of Fortune and Dylan Thomas in the race.

Youmzain looks a likely starter also.

Left in at this point.....

Authorized
Soldier Of Fortune
Dylan Thomas
Yeats
Acapulco
Yellowstone
Archipenko
Red Rock Canyon
Zambezi Sun
Mandesha
Youmzain
Dragon Dancer
Saddex
Anton Chekhov
Sagara

If Red Rock runs, he could easily run 3rd or 4th, then run in a maiden the next week and run 2nd at 1-10.. I put a nice bit on Zambezi today so Im hoping that Bary has been telling the truth regarding how much he will come on from the Niel.

I love Red Rock..........

and you're right.... he could run into a place here and then get beaten in a maiden. But that's why i love him.

Love him too but i change my mind every day.....

Today I'm backing Soldier of Fortune or Saddex.

That'll change.....:)

I'm not really sure... need to check BUT he's got the whole Prix Niel angle going for him!

There was a point in time where i thought he did, but he won the Prix Niel on ground described by most trainers as the firmest it has been at Longchamp in many years.

If any horse is seemingly dependant on softish turf, it is Authorized.

I like Authorized and Mandesha as the top two.

Not sure which was the best Arc field but I think the best horse to win it was Lammtarra, followed by Dancing Brave. Lammtarra was winning the Arc in only his fourth career starts. After winning his career debut in October of 1994, he was off of the track until coming back to win the Epsom Derby in his second career start. In course record time. That alone was an amazing feat. He then stayed out till the King George and won that race. To win those three races like that is incredible. And it's not like he was beating nothing. At Ascot, he beat Pentire. The same Pentire that had taken the Irish Champion and had beaten Singspiel twice. At Longchamp, he took down Freedom Cry (who would go on to lose the BC Turf by a nose) and Swain, the future 2x King George winner among several other outstanding races.

Authorized has once again managed to get a monsoon to fall where he needs it.

Lots of rain has fallen in the Paris area over the last thirty six hours. Totally against what forecasters have been predicting over the last five days!

I'm not sure how this horse manages to do it, but every big start he has, he manages to get plenty of rain (which apparently he needs to perform at his best).

I think i'm siding with Brock now, just hoping that Zambezi Sun has plenty more to offer, especiallly now as the ground has been softened up.

I'm hoping for anyone but Authorized, though.

Personally, I think it was silly for any forecaster NOT to predict rains in Paris at this time of year. If I held that job, I'd predict rain everyday.

Most of the time i'd agree, but they have had next to no rain there until two days ago. Same in this country. We hadn't had rain in weeks until the other day.

As far as i'm aware, they are shocked with the amount of rain that has fallen in such a short space of time.

Authorized raced on good to soft ground in the Derby (the quickest he has encountered) and he came back slightly jarred up on that. He wouldn't be able to race on quick ground, and everytime he has run, the rain has arrived just in time. Lucky or what.

What time does the race go off (local time is fine; I can do the math)? NYC's OTB channel usually airs it...

I'm pretty sure it's 4.40pm French time. 3.40pm GMT, so that would make it 10.40am eastern.

Thank you! I'll have time to stumble out to Starbucks ahead of time and get my caffeine dose beforehand. :)

What is it with Starbucks that i don't get. Every American i know seems to be addicted it to it!

I have a friend who has recently moved to Kentucky, and she is already addicted to it!

i swear more than caffeine goes into their drinks! :D

While Im not a massive fan of Starbucks, Ive gotten into a habit of buying a starbucks mug whenever I am on my travels..
Still Zambezi for the Arc.. and I absolutely love watching old videos of the Arc.. some absolute top notch quality on show even over the last 10 years. Pentire Celebre was just sensational!

... and Gateway, who will be supplemented tomorrow by the Manduro connections.

(Chekov was ruled out).

O'Brien supplements Song Of Hiawatha............ shocked!


French racing correspondents are predicting the ground to be good to soft for Arc day. I hope they are right.

The rabbit for all the AOB boys?

Well, that seems the more likely reason. Just seems so strange, and rather stupid for them to supplement a rabbit for the cost of 60,000 euros!

These big organisations have more money than sense, i think.

But there again, if he goes and wins at 200/1 we will then know why they did it :D