Is It Too Early To Ask Who Should Be In The Breeders Cup Juvenile
 

So if they had to draw the race tomorrow besides "Maimonides" who get's in the race and who is excessively touted that is likely to be left out.

Ready's Image would be in, as would Kodiak Kowboy. Outside of that??

The Green Monkey

They wish he was still eligible.

Let me see, Maimonides gets in because:

A. He won a maiden race(dozens of two year olds have done that)

B. He ran a 89 Beyer figure(As of today, 14 colts and geldings have recorded a higher figure, 8 of them at a longer distance)

C. He cost a lot of money and has high profile connections.

It is hard to know with these 2yo at this point, but I think The Roundhouse will be there. He has had a couple decent finishes in graded stakes races and considering his connections and pedigree, they will probably want to take a shot with him.

Going out on a limb. Loved the way Paint broke his maiden at the Spa. Trainer who knows how to win. Saying he is a factor in Juvenille and in TC races next year

I was impressed with Prussian breaking his maiden. If he can stretch out he should be in the field.

He won't even have to stretch out much given his debut was at the BC Juvenile distance of a mile and a sixteenth. His debut was extremely impressive though. The fractions were slow early, but he was full of run late.

NT

Irish Smoke??

Here are the division standings per ntra.com :


10 - Kodiak Kowboy
10 - Salute the Sarge
7 - Ready's Image
6 - The Roundhouse
4 - Georgia Boy (S12%)
4 - Tale of Ekati
2 - Dr. Nick
2 - Leonides
2 - Riley Tucker
2 - Sky Cape (S09%)

There's juvenile turf race this year, so I doubt he goes in the BCJ.

I thought that Majestic Warrior looked pretty good winning his debut at Saratoga a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if Mott puts him on a BC course.

ready's echo

oh, and the nocal horse, imaginary sailor, has been pretty impressive.

he's dropped off the scene though as i havent gotten any stable mail reports on him lately.

Caves Valley beat a lot of well bread colts by daylight. He would be my choice to challange the high dollar and early leadera. Most impressive maiden win.

Officer Cheerie and Bear Holliday would be the most logical Woodbine 2 year olds having each chased down Dancing Allstar by "necks" in the 2 year old stakes just run up there.

I would like to see Bear Holiday make another start.....

Cajun your usually all over this Canada stuff .....Did something happen to Bear Holiday?

agree on bear holiday.that kimmel horse that won monday will make some noise.........

yes ,..he was much the best....and the cobra juice isnt in him yet.......

yes

Half to Slew's Tizzy if I remember correctly. . .

He's a full to Slew's Tizzy.

I believe I read that the horse in question, Slew's Tiznow, got an 89 Beyer.

NT

90

Sal


So who are you putting in the Juvy if it were run today....

IMO, it's way too early to try and project a field for a race like that.

Very few top two-year-olds have yet to even run beyond six furlongs -- and lets face it -- it can be tricky to project who will improve the most from 2yo's sprinting in August to going a two-turn route later on in the year.

I believe if you go back to '98, not a single horse who's won the Breeders Cup Juvenile had a North American stakes win through August of his 2-year-old season.

Sorry to dodge the question....but I believe it's too premature to answer it. I know if I was looking for a future book bet -- I'd want a 2yo who I believe is capable of thriving at a route distance, with off-the-pace or closing tactics. Those types have won the race the last four years. And, while the last two winners Stevie Wonderboy and Street Sense were very deserving winners -- some very mediocre 2-year-olds (Anees, Wilko, Action This Day) have scored giant upsets in the past...because they had the distance pedigrees, had the pace setups, and caught fields overflowing with brilliant sprinter types.

I posted this elsewhere -- but, here's a stat some might find interesting...

2yo's who broke their maiden going six furlongs or futher at Saratoga while earning a Beyer of 89 or more.

2007:

The Leopard (94)
Slew's Tiznow (90)

2006:

Tiz Wonderful (99)

2005:

Discreet Cat (106)
Deputy Glitters (92)

2004:

Sense of Style (91)
Proud Accolade (93)

2003:

Birdstone (99)
Purge (89)
Eurosilver (96)

2002:

Sky Mesa (92)
Atfirstblush (91)

In the five years prior to this year -- of the ten horses who pulled this off, nine of them became multiple Graded Stakes winners, six of them won Grade 1 races.

very interesting..thanks

Almost sounds like your adding another race to the BC Sal...

Are you asking for Juvee sprint to be added to the two day "festival of champions"......just kidding didn't think they needed two days of racing never mind more

If there was a juvenile sprint --- all these closers with distance pedigrees wouldn't have been doing so hot in this race...as the cheap speed, and one or two strong talents with distance limitations would be filtered out

Certainly Anees, Action This Day, and Wilko all might not have sniffed the exotics in a much slower paced race.

But yeah -- we need less BC races...certainly not more.