Hard Spun to the King's Bishop
 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/mo...e_races-2.html

I Love It! Hopefully they get that G1 Steve was talking about on his show yesterday and can then try him on the grass. If here romps here there is no way they should put him back in the Classic. I would love to see him run in the Kelso on the turf at BEL, and if he takes to it (and why shouldn't he?) run him in the BC Mile. There have to be so many different people pulling the strings here. Between Jones himself, Porter, the Darley guys trying to get the most out of him for stud duties and all of the "fans" (like us) advising him on what he should do with his horse, it has to be a madhouse over at Jones' barn. I know Larry, from what I've read, just LOVES being told how to handle his horse. I feel for him, but I feel for the horse as well. He's a very nice horse who has not been handled real well and now because he will only run until the end of the year will be hard pressed to go out and find that race that will make him the most valuable as a stallion prospect, instead of just letting him mature and become the best he can as a racehorse. I'm kind of wishing he didn't run so well in the Derby and then maybe breeders wouldn't have taken such a liking to him.

seeing he LOVES being told what to do, I'll tell him that i think the Malibu would be the better idea. He is already proven on synthetis and liklier softer competition.

Hard Spun would have a serious look in the Breeders Cup Classic.

He's a much better horse when he's allowed to make the early lead, which he hasn't been since the Derby....because a wide variety of reasons ranging from Flying First Class and Xchanger setting crazy fractions in the Preakness, to incompetent race-riding by Gomez in the Belmont, to an early stumble while breaking from a slight outside post in the Haskell.

All the cheap speed that has denied him leads lately (horses like Xchanger, Cable Boy, etc) would certainly go in a race like the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile instead, if they'd run in a BC race at all.

Monmouth is a track that can be especially kind to controlling speed horses (see Gottcha Gold's wire-to-wire upset of Lawyer Ron at near level weight) and Hard Spun would prove a very elusive target to catch on the fairly easy lead he could possibly get.

If Hard Spun doesn't go in the Breeders Cup Classic....it could certainly setup to be a very paceless race.

I don't think the 3YO Sprint Division is strong anywhere, East coast or West coast. Who will he face in the King's Bishop, Teufelsberg? Most Distingushed? Americanus? Sports Town? King of the Roxy? Black Seventeen? Am I missing someone? Not exactly Murderers' Row.

I've given up on him after the Haskell... which means he'll probably win his next start.

Sports Town is dead.

If everything checks out OK it should include Stomello as well.

Yikes, sorry about that folks, RIP.

Kind of tough to run 7f 3 weeks after a bout with colic, wouldn't you think?

For some bizarre reason they are running Idiot Proof in a Cal-bred stakes on the polytrack. I would have liked to have seen him go in the King's Bishop since like you said, it isn't exactly Murderers' Row.

Why not, I like the idea. I don't care what the pace is for the BCC he would have no shot at wiring the field at 10F. His best shot at doing that came in the derby. Even at 9F he barely held off Curlin who needed the race and didn't hold off AGS of course. I think its sensible to shorten up a bit.

Question: Hard Spun and Curlin both ran very similar schedules this year in terms of races and spacing, and even were coming out of the exact same race with the exact same layoff heading into the Haskell, yet Curlin needed the race and Hard Spun didn't? Please explain...

Like Gottcha Gold had no shot of beating Lawyer Ron at near level weight?

Hard Spun only lost the Derby because the winner was allowed to pass 16 horses without leaving the rail....his race was unarguably better.

You really think he's as effective when he doesn't have the lead? To hold the fact that he out-photo'd Curlin against him...while denied the lead after an early stumble....I don't see the logic behind that.

But hey, Hard Spun will be a price in the Classic.....I'd be very excited to bet him in that spot.

Curlin looks like he would be harder to keep fit than Hard Spun. Hes a bigger stronger looking horse. Im sure they both needed a race, but probably Curlin a little more than HS. I also give Curlin no excuse for not passing HardSpun, hes supposed to be the second coming. He rolled up and should have passed. I think HardSpun is easily the second best horse in this years crop maybe the best if used at the correct distance. Also think he will be a superior grass miler.

Please don't tell me you are trying to compare the trip HS got--with the one SS got --- for their respective styles.

That would be pretty crazy.

Hard Spun set a very fast pace in a race loaded with high quality speed horses---the fact that Stormello was rated hard takes nothing away from his performance.

It seems as though you are not taking the Derby pace into consideration when evaluating SS's trip....I know you'll admit his "trip" was the luckiest you've ever seen in a big race.....but it was also further setup by the fast pace--- which we all expected he'd get going in.

Hard Spun should point for Breeders Cup Mile
 

Hard Spun should point for the Breeders Cup Mile on the grass.He is a cut below the horses pointing for the Classic. The mile would further his value as a sire. Jones should point him for it and develop a plan to reach it.

I think Hard Spun has a tremendous heart that everyone is not giving him credit for. When he ran at Oaklawn he never, ever gave up. Even though he had every right to. In the Derby he only fought SS for a brief moment as SS went by, but he never completely gave up the fight and "chased him" to the wire. The Preakness and Belmont were horrifying to watch and I'm sure just as horrifying to the horse running in the race. But even in the Haskell, while AGS blew by him, he never let Curlin by. I just don't know why he doesn't have that acceleration to go with his first challenger? Which would be my only concern about him running on the grass. Those closers come with such a furious rush at the end I'm not sure he can accelerate along with them to hold them off.

in his last winning effort he didn't have the lead, the Turfway race. I don't think his issue is so much having the lead or not. I think its just that you have to just let him run, don't try to restrain him, but also don't count on any passing gear either. If he makes the lead fine, but he can also sit off of a determined speed horse inside of him like Cable Boy.

I will be very eager to leave him off the top of my ticket in the breeders cup classic, should he go that route which i doubt. I can't even imagine what kind of perfect storm it would take for him to win that race. how many consecutive 2-4 place finishes will it take to convince you he isn't at the top of the 3yo crop, let alone elders.

Nice horse for sure, not a classic contender imo.

that is right, he doesn't have a kick, or passing gear. he can run fast a long way, which is a fine quality.

I dont think he would need a passing gear going a mile on the grass. Hes a fast horse

What 3YO's are above him?

Street Sense
Rags to Riches (although I find it hard to gauge Hard Spun's performance in that race for obvious reasons, I'll say the filly)
Curlin (maybe, not Saturday though)
Any Given Saturday (maybe, though I'd like another shot at him at 1 1/8 with a race under Hard Spun's belt)
Dream Rush (unlikely though I'd like to see those 2 hook up for 7f)
Tiago(not)
Zanjero (not)
NoBiz (not)

Help me out here, because by my calculations, he is at the top of the 3YO class.

Of those who would beat him going a mile

Considering I've not bet him to win in any of these big races so far.....It's not like I've been chasing this horse.

The older horse division is pretty damn weak.

Hard Spun will run much better uncontested than he will stalking--where he tends to get rank...which he even did in his win at Turfway that you mentioned.

Where is his bad race when he's made the lead?

I'd like him a LOT in the BC Mile (dirt OR turf.)

IMO, I'd like him a lot less in either Mile race.

I dont think he can beat Lawyer Ron on the dirt going a mile.

I think he would stand a huge chance against anything in the grass mile

I guess if Ron went in the classic I would like him in the mile dirt.

Why would they run Lawyer Ron in an ungraded mile race? Winning that isn't going to do much for a horse that is already a G1 winner. They might as well take a shot at the Classic before sending him to the shed.

I dont know why they wouldnt. Hes a G1, G2, G3 winner already. Hes going to be 4/5 in the mile, and the distance is a question in the Classic

If Hard Spun is going to get in the winner's circle come BC day(s) it will be on the 26th, going the mile and 70.(actually called the Dirt Mile). If they chose to run him in the Classic, I think he has the stuff to hit the board against the ultra weak older division. He's already proven that he can finish ahead of or at least right there with the "big boys" of his crop.

I believe it was Drugz who pointed it out that his running style would fit the Classic better than the races he's been running in. The Classic wouldnt have the likes of FFClass, Xchanger, Cable Boy, or any other horse that prevented him the early lead. He'd be the one that they'd all try to rope in. In my eyes, with his high cruising speed, only a few of them would be capable of doing such.

Then again, what do I know? I didnt think AGS would hit the board in the Haskell, and look at what he did. Exploded.

BC Classic - 5MM
BC Mile - 1MM

Difference = 4MM reasons why Lawyer Ron will run in the Classic

What do you make for running off the board in the Classic, because thats what he will get if he goes that distance

Breeders’ Cup $5 Million Gross Purse
Example | Purse distribution for a $5,000,000 Breeders’ Cup Championships Race:
Classic
Awards
Official Owner Stallion Foal
Finish Purse Nominator Nominator
1st $2,700,000 $135,000 $135,000
2nd $1,000,000 $50,000 $50,000
3rd $500,000 $25,000 $25,000
4th $255,000
5th $125,000
$4,580,000 $210,000 $210,000
Total = $5,000,000
Additional Nominator Awards to be paid from the Breeders’ Cup Fund, not included
in purse distribution. On a $5,000,000 purse the awards would be:
Official Stallion Foal
Finish Nominator Nominator
4th $12,750 $12,750
5th $6,250 $6,250

Come On, be serious. Who isn't a question in 1 1/4 race on the dirt? Street Sense, that's pretty much it. Maybe they'll let Lava Man hang out in Long Branch on the beach for a few days, blindfolded so he doesn't realize the water is on the wrong side, this way he thinks he is still in California? Is Flashy Bull, the "superhorse" that everyone was screaming about not being worthy of winning the S Foster going to run out of his shoes? Papi Chullo? He'sanoldsalt? The head case Corinthian? Actually right now the top 5 points earners for the Classic are Curlin, Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and Tiago. There aren't any good horses anymore, which is precisely why he'll run in the Classic.

I guess we will wait to Breeders Cup day for me to come back in here and say I told you they were better off going to the mile.

Amid all the discussion of how Hard Spun ran such a fast race in the Ky Derby, no one brought up that there was a :26 quarter in the middle of that race from the 3/4 to the mile. Shouldn't he have had a bit left for the stretch drive.

There's just nothing about the way this horse has finished any of his last four races that makes me think he can win the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

NT

Believe me, I'm not Pletcher fan and would expect and hope for him to have the same dismal time this year at the BC as he always does, but I missed the part in the Whitney when Lawyer Ron was stopping and only came home, his last 3f, in 36 flat.

Why would the owners of this horse not want to run him in the Classic?

IMO, he actually ran quite well in the stretch of the Derby. Street Sense passed him at the 1/8 pole and quickly opened up by 2. Hard Spun basically matched him stride for stride to the wire, only losing by less than 3.

The reason you wouldnt want to run in the Classic is because he cannot run that far.

Okay, I give up. But I leave you with this. Who thought Cat Thief would run that far? Not me and I bet him in many, many races leading up to that point.

Also, this is a Hard Spun thread. To continue this converstaion please start your "Lawyer Ron can't run a mile and a quarter" thread.

CJ had the pace figure blisteringly fast for the Derby...and that 3rd quarter you speak of was factored into the figure.

If that 3rd quarter helped Hard Spun so much, wouldn't it also have helped the horses who stalked his pace from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th? They all finished a mile up the track.