Ellis 4% takeout Pick-4 bet diary
 

I'm mildly shocked at the general lack of interest in the 4% Ellis Pick-4. I always thought horseplayers were smarter than typical gamblers, but I'm re-evaluating that position!

Anyway, in the hope of generating some more interest/attention for the 4% takeout experiment at Ellis, I'm going to keep a running total of my picks for the Ellis Pick-4 starting today (Wed, Aug 1).

Wed, Aug 1
6) 1,2,9
7) 1,4,11
8) all
9) 1,5,8,12

$1 each leg, $360 total.

--Dunbar

pick 4
6th 1,3,5
7th 1,4
8th 8,9,10
9th 1,8,10

Good luck

1-2-3-5-9
1-4-11
5-8-9-10
1-8

Missed the 23.80 horse in the 6th. (viscount and pweizer both had it in their selections!) I had the $6.20, $14.00, $18.40 in the next 3. The payout for 50c was $6012!

Result: -$360
Total amt bet: $360

************************************************** *
Thurs, Aug 2:

Casting a wide net. I couldn't get away with this with a normal takeout. Even so, I may well hit the Pick-4 but lose on the bet.

6) 3,4,6,8,10
7) 4,6,7
8) 1,3,4,8,9,10
9) all

50c on each leg, $315 total.

--Dunbar

Won by a nose in the 6th with the $12.40 #8;
Could have caught the tri in the 7th, with the 7,6,4 finish (winner paid $6.60)
won by 1/2 length in the 8th with the $17.00 #9;
Hoped for a 10-1 winner in the 9th but had to be content with the $8.60 #1.

The (8-7-9-1) 50c Pick-4 paid $709.35.
Daily result: +$394.35.

Overall:
Total bets: $675
Total return: $709.35
Net profit: $34.35

PS, a 50c parlay would have only paid $374.
A 25% takeout Pick-4 would have paid $554. (Attention Saratoga bettors!)
I'd rather have the $709.

*********************************************

Fri, Aug 3 selections:
(2 tickets, one for $1 and one for 50c)

$1
7) all
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 7
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$216

50c
7) 1,2,5
8) 3,4,5,8
9) 3,4,5,6
10) 1,3,4,8,9,11
$144

Total bets for Aug 3: $360

--Dunbar

8/4/07 P4
super multi-tiered approach.

2,5,7,11,12,13/2,3/1,6/1,11
3,6,10,14/2,3/1,6/1,11
2,13/2,3,7,8/1,6,8,10/1,11
2,13/2,3/1,6,7,8,9,10/1,2,3,4,5,9,11
5,7,11,12/2,3/1,6/1,2,3,4,5,9,11

total cost $232
objective is to get both of the first two legs home with 2,13/2,3

The 9th and 10th are wide open and i'm tempted to add a few to at least the 9th.

2,11,12,13
3,4,7
4,10
1,2
$48

Will post a few $.50 backup tickets later.



August 4, 2007

Scratches

Race 1 #2 Another Fine One
Race 1 #3 Music Major
Race 1 #8 Pewee Valley
Race 1 #12 Western Silk
Race 2 #7 Sinusosity
Race 3 #9 Double Lightning
Race 6 #7 Cecelia Rose
Race 7 #10 Moa Annette
Race 9 #9 Otis Ridge
Race 11 #7 Greve
Race 11 #9 Bebe Grand
Race 12 #11 Even Temper

I had the winning 1-3-7-4 in my $1 ticket. Payoff was just $68. (a $1 win parlay would have paid just $38.20!)

Daily result: -292

Overall:
Total bets: $1073
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$257.65

************************************************** ******

Aug 4 selections:

$1 each

9) 2
10) 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10
11) 1,2,6,10
12) 1,2,3,4,5

Total bets for Aug 4: $160

--Dunbar

go get'em

good luck.

Thanks, Jim. If I can get past my single, I'll like my chances!

I actually played it as a $2 ticket, because I'm aiming to pump $300-$400 into the 4% pool every day.

--Dunbar

Hang in there Dun...
 

I put about a hundred into Ellis chasing various 3-4's. I think it's a tougher track than most give it credit for.... these cheaper horses are very tough to read when one is going to wake up.... and that quirky course for the mile with the chute...

I considered just boxing 1,2,3,4 post positions at the mile to see what happened. Frequency of those posts winning at the mile is significant..

I/L

going to get in on this pick 4 today with a wide ticket.

8) 1 2 7 8 10 11
9) 4 5 8
10) 3 6 9
11) 3 4 6 11

$108 for a fifty cent ticket.

good luck

[Note: there was an error in my "Overall" stats yesterday. The "Total bets" should have been $1035 not $1073. The net loss is correct. I'll fix the total bets beginning with today's post, but I don't want to edit a selections post from earlier.]

My single in the 9th led until the stretch and then faded to 7th, beaten about 2 lengths.
I had the last 3 of the 4-2-10-1, but had my single come through, the payoff would have been more like $600 than the actual $9753.

And I should note that if Ellis had Saratoga's 25% takeout instead of 4%, the Pick 4 would have paid about $7600. That's an extra $2100 those Ellis winners collected thanks to the 4% takeout.

Daily result: -$160

Overall:
Total bets: $1195
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$417.65

************************************************

Aug 5 selections

I don't know the best nomenclature for doing what I'm doing today. The second ticket is the same as the first except that I am omitting the 5 in race 8.

8) 5,6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
50c each leg for $120

8) 6,7,10,11
9) 2,3,4,7,8,9
10) 1,2,6,7
11) 1,3
$1 each leg for $192

Total total bet for Aug 5: $312

--Dunbar

good luck dunbar..

thanks, hooves. Dismissed the #3 (7-2) in the 10th because of first try on turf against some proven turf runners. Would only have gotten back about $250 of my $312+, but I'd take that over $0.

Now I have to wait until Wednesday! ;>)

--Dunbar

well the good news is the ticket only cost $60 due to two scratches.
the bad news is I lost because even though I was live to 4 horses in the finale, they finished 2-5.

Daily result: -$312

Overall:
Total bets: $1507
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$729.65

************************************************

Aug 8 selections:

$1 each:

6) 1,6,10
7) 5,6
8) 1,6,7
9) 3,4,5,10,11

Total bet for Aug 8: $90

101 deg at Ellis Park right now. "feels like" 112 according to weather.com. Wouldn't blame any horse for going on strike today.

--Dunbar

Someone might reasonably ask how I caught the $17.40, $9.20, and $7.40 winners of the 6,7, and 9th races, but MISSED the $5.40 horse in the 8th. The answer is simple. I SCREWED UP BIGTIME! I was in a rush on my last day in Hawaii, and must have flipped past that legitimate fav while paging down the Formulator 4 PP's. There's no way in the world a Beyer guy like me leaves out the standout Beyer horse from my ticket. The $1 pick 4 paid $863. With my "winner", it would have paid around $840, enough to put me in the plus column. Chalk it up to the blunder ledger.

Moving on....

Overall results:
Total bets: $1597
Total return: $777.35
Net loss: -$819.65

************************************************** *

Aug 12 selections:

8) 1,2,4,6
9) 7,8
10) 1,6,8
11) 6,9,10

$1 each, 4x2x3x3=$72

--Dunbar

Good luck today Dunbar, lets get you in the black :)

Thanks, Scav. I'm live into the 4th leg, but with the 7.00, 3.20, 7.20, so far, it may take some luck to pay for the $72 ticket today!

In my effort to support the 4% Pick-4, I actually bet it as a $2 ticket. I also took a 50c ticket using the remaining horses in the 11th. Guaranteed a winner, but it may not pay for today's ticket.

--Dunbar

I had the 6-7-6-10 winning ticket, but with three 5-2 shots and a 3-5 shot, along with several scratches sharing the payoff, it paid just $119.70 for $1. Still, way better than a win parlay or what it would have paid with Saratoga's 25% takeout.

Result for Aug 12: +47.80

Overall results:
Total bets: $1669
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$771.95

*******************************************

Selections for Aug 16:

If anyone has a clue about the 9th, please enlighten me! I succumbed to an "all". The 8th wasn't much easier.

50c each way:

6) 1,5,7
7) 2,3,6
8) 1,3,8,11,12
9) all

3x3x5x7=315 ways, $157.50 bet

--Dunbar

Doesn't look like it is getting the support, 18k today and hilarious Arlington did twice that.

The payout is kinda sketchy also with a $25 horse and two wide open fields.

8-17
i'm going to play these numbers, in various combinations between 50cents and $3. when i have the totals i'll post it.

7) 1 5 6 7
8) 1 3 6 9
9) 3 5 9
10) 2 3 6 7

7: 5
8: 3,4,6,7
9: 2,3,4,5
10: 2,3

$16 per 50 cents

taking a stab

9) 2 9
10) 2 4 6 11
11) 1 2 5 7 8 12
12) 2 6 9 11
$96

"hilarious" is not the word I'd choose. I'd call it tragic. Horseplayers will get what they deserve for not supporting this 4% Pick-4--we can expect a future of unrelenting high takeout. Anyone suggesting that lower takeout will result in significantly higher pools will be laughed at.

I'm continuing to put between $200-$400 daily into the Ellis Pick-4 pools in the faint hope that the rest of the racing community will wake up. If everyone on this site alone pitched in the last couple of weeks (closing day is Sept 3), maybe something can still be salvaged for the future.

--Dunbar

The problem with Ellis is they went too low and a lot of places aren't taking the bet.

I don't play many exotics, but I've been playing this one just for the principle of the thing.

I know that's contributed to the problem, but that doesn't explain a drop from a 65K the 2nd week of the offer to 30-40K and then to the ridiculous 18K this week.

I never played a Pick-4 in my life before Ellis and I almost never bet maiden races, but this was so obviously important that I jumped on it. Glad you, scav, and ArlJim are supporting it, too.

--Dunbar

I've been playing it, Dunbar, and I don't see why more don't either. Yeah some of the races aren't great but they're handicappable and entertaining nontheless. I think the problem is there's just only so much money to go around on a Wednesday/Thursday when Saratoga and Del Mar are running... they did $56k yesterday and $31k today, not bad at all.

Hit it both days this weekend for nice scores, on top of it.

Phil, glad to hear you've been playing it. (congrats on the hits, too!) It seems to me any sensible bettor should be playing this pretty hard. First, it's a great deal in its own right--offering a minimal vig to overcome; second, playing this Pick-4 is an investment in the future of horse betting.

I hope more bettors pile on during the last few days. I doubt Ellis (or anyone) will be overly impressed with $30K pools). But if they can finish on an upswing into the $50K range, it would maybe be encouraging.

I already bet my $300 into today's Pick-4. I hope I'm less than 1% of the entire pool!

--Dunbar

Result for Aug 16: -$157.50.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1826.50
Total return: $897.05
Net loss: -$927.45

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 22:

50c each way:

6) 1,6,9,10
7) 1,3,6
8) 1,5,6,8,9
9) 1,3,4,6,9

4x3x5x5=300 ways, $150 total bet

--Dunbar

Result for Aug 22: 6-6-9-3 paid $94.75. So I lost $55.25 on my $150 ticket.

Overall results:
Total bets: $1976.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$984.70

***********************************************

Selections for Aug 23:

$1 each way

6) 5
7) 2,4,5,7,8
8) 2,4,5,6,7,8,9
9) 3,6,8,9

1x5x7x4 = 140 ways, $140 ticket

My single in the 6th race, Golden Hare, is a Steve Asmussen 8-yr-old that has won 13 of it's last 14 races going back to last September. The one loser in that stretch was a nose loss with Garrett Gomez aboard at Churchill on May 1.

--Dunbar

Just got home, had to watch Golden Hare race. She was my single as well.

5/2,4,5/6,8/2,5 Six bucks

I try to hit these going much shorter.

I can't help it.......
 

I feel I can say this because I have tried to play Ellis and have invested some effort (and some money) into some of the cards. Casual and even semi-players will walk away because in my opinion, these are erratic, unformal horses for the most part, with a track that has sharp turns and a chute, and that races almost like a bullring. The results unless you want to devote your career to the place.... are unpredictable enough that folks wade in, get their nose bloodied repeatedly... and say "what good is a 4% takeout if the place is uncappable with any rational results?"

Like playing Mountaneer... if you can win there with any consistency...I am genuinely impressed

I/L

Definitely some cheap races that are tough to call. But I don't think I agree about the sharp turns.

When the favs fail at Saratoga, it's simply the Graveyard of Favorites. Del Mar's synthetic surface is causing havoc with cappers. But with Ellis it's somehow the track's fault?

I've said before that I don't like maiden races on any track, but the cheap claimers and low level allowance horses at Ellis appear to run reasonably true at Ellis.

My own poor results are what they are--a fairly small sample of an attempt to do some quick capping. I certainly don't blame Ellis for my poor results.

It's certainly possible that on any given day, the 25% takeout at Saratoga is easier to crack than the 4% at Ellis. My opinion is that the Ellis 4% bet needs to be supported regardless. Otherwise, the wrong message is being sent to the industry.

--Dunbar

I think something that definitely needs to be taken into consideration is the growth of other betting pools @ Ellis since the 4% take-out was implemented. I would expect pool growth in many or all bets in races involved in the pk 4. If someone gets knocked out of the pick 4 in the first or second leg chances are they will probably bet on races in the rest of the sequence because they must have had some bet-worthy opinion of those races and we all know how frustrating it can be when you cap for hours and drop a good amount of money into a serial bet and get knocked out early.

I also don't think that Ellis's seeming lack of success with the pk4 is indicative of how lower take-out would be welcomed industry wide. I am certain that if NYRA did the same thing the pools would grow exponentially. There could be 1% take-out and I probably wouldn't play the Ellis pick 4 because I just won't dump that kind of money into a pool at a track that I have no experience at. I admire what Dunbar and others are doing by playing the Ellis pk4 but I think that until the major tracks find some reason to lower take-out, experiments at lower level tracks won't provide any incentive to or evidence that lowering the vig is a good move from a business perspective.

I threw in a small ticket for my good deed of the day:

1,3,WT,2,3,7,WT,1,WT,4,7

i haven't done well yet at Ellis either, but I haven't chalked it up to anything other than my own lack of experience there. i have made several easy mistakes that i only caught after the fact. its not like i have a background of experience playing there so its a little new. and since i've only played pk4's, those are also not wagers that are a cinch anywhere.

what i can say is that it seems to play as fair as anywhere else, i'm by no means throwing in the towel and will be better prepared for the next meet since I think this one is about over.

its like any other track with cheaper stock, you have to dial in your handicapping accordingly.

Golden Hare came through fine, but I missed the #2 in the 9th.

Result for Aug 23: -$140

Overall results:
Total bets: $2116.50
Total return: $991.80
Net loss: -$1124.70

Not thrilled with today's races; two MSW's with mostly 1st-time-starters:

50c each way:

7) 1,3,5,6
8) 2
9) 1,5,6,7
10) all

4x1x4x9=144; $72 ticket

--Dunbar