Del Mar - Initial thoughts?
 

I only watched the 7th today but for those who have been capping or watching closely...any thoughts so far on how it is playing?

speed doesn't stick, regardless of the surface (only 2 maybe 3 gate to wire winners from what i have scene)


-bt-

My only consistent impression is just like Kee and Arlington, but I only watched half the day: "fit" horses finish well, no matter their style. Speed doesn't carry by a gifted rock-hard rail, it had better be "true" turn of foot, and the horse had better be fit for the distance, too. It seems like horses tire on it more quickly, to my eyes, if they are questionable.

Race 1 - 1 turn mile: 1st and 2nd chalkfest - 1st was a deep closer (from last in the field to first) but this is that horses known running style, it was third off a layoff after 2 sprints, and clearly stood out over this field speed- and class-wise as the favorite and 2nd favorite.

Race 2 - another chalkfest. 1 mile, maiden 40K claimers - speed (7-1) led through most of the race, just nipped at the wire by (2-1) stalker, then 3rd was 7-5 and fourth 9-2.

Race 3 - 1 1/16 miles, 10K claimers. Surprise! 65-1 shot with lower speed figure (but a strong finish figure) wins. I couldn't see that coming :p but this is 10K maiden claimers ... Speed didn't hold over 2 turns. I think second place was 9/2, then third 5-1 and fourth 7-1. Talmos speedy front-runner collapsed, if I recall correctly.

Race 4 - 5 1/2 furlong sprint, 100K maiden claimers. Nakatani brings home my stalker for a nice finish to my day. I didn't see the rest of the card.

I have no problems with artificial surfaces. They are not all the same from track to track (like dirt, like turf), but they maintain a bit more similarity day to day at a particular track vs dirt (my impression). It's just another track idiosyncrasy to learn. I was thinking today, that if you closed your eyes, you wouldn't know if it were a dirt or synthetic surface race. I like it - bigger fields, bigger handle, bigger payoffs if you find the overlooked horse.

I suspect my opinion is the minority :D

Bet everything Peter Miller is sending out..the barn is on fire!

Stay Away!!!

I agree. Going to take me awhile before I pull the trigger and make any large wagers.

The jury is still is out on a lot of things, however, these races are just very ugly.

People tend to forget that the vast majority of the most important races in this country, are run at route distances on the main track.

They ran no such races like that on opening day. Take a look at what happened in the four route races over the polytrack run on todays card. The first four of the meet.

* The first of two 10K claimers for different sexes. The fillies division (Race #1) was won by Zee Topper, who came from 13 lengths off the pace after a half mile, to win going away by almost five lengths. The half mile fraction was 47 1/5, a genuine fraction to indicate it was a truly run horse race.

* In the second race, a 7/1 shot is allowed an uncontested 3.5 length lead, through very comfortable fractions of 48 for the half mile. Over a natural dirt surface, this would be your protypical "once in a lifetime dream trip." Said horse is run down late, through a soft 26.70 final 1/4 mile fraction.

(Pause it) - Jockeys and trainers observe these races...and a light bulb goes on. You can envision them all collectively thinking "must go as slow as possible, much save as much horse as possible."

* Now It's time for the 10K claiming male division. All the jockeys and horseman make their adjustments. A 5/2 favorite is allowed to lead through very soft fractions of 25 flat and 50 flat. He finishes 8th in a field of 9. Meanwhile, the horses racing last and 2nd to last respectively, after a half mile, rally to finish 1st and 2nd at odds of 66/1 and 9/2. They make a $875.60 exacta.

That's right, horses close from 9th and 8th, into the teeth of 25 and 50 fractions, and make a 437/1 shot exacta.

* Now comes the feature, A $75,000 ALW race for older males. In other words, very good horses. A winner comes from mid-pack, the fractions are 25.62 and 50.73. The final time for 8.5 furlongs was 1:46.98

Buy hey, at least they're not pulling around sulkys and racing in single file...

I only wagered on the first three races on opening day and had great success.

Hopefully the track will favor people like me who can't handicap.

That sums up my first thought on watching the 7th.

Looks like Keeneland all over again. Total JUNK.

Too bad because I truly love wagering on Del Mar, and will be making my first trip ever there on Saturday...

Nakatani seems to be hot .

My recommendation for a first trip to Del Mar is to not take the wagering too seriously. Just soak up the atmosphere, and play the races without getting too serious on the cash invested.

Del Mar is too special of an experience to have "marred" by regretted lost wagers. That was my tactic in my days there last August.....played fun and light. Last day I opened the wallet a little wider after I had already chalked the trip up to "great."

http://www.bullysdelmar.com/

I truly have no vested interest in this place, but if one likes to have tasty dinners and appetizers in an ultra casual atmosphere up until midnight, I highly recommend. Hungry one night about 11PM, my wife and I ventured in. With a glass of Napa cabernet, the sauteed mushrooms and onion soup really hit the spot. My wife raved about her very reasonably priced steak. Besides the good food, there is a very appropriate amount of "horsey stuff" in the decor.

Makes me wanna go back down there!

Handicappers develop individual style. I think we find the most success at tracks that play into one's methodology of handicapping (the manner in which we anticipate how races will run, interpret stats and data, etc.)

There are quite accomplished handicappers who don't care to wager on turf, or on maidens, etc., because they simply don't find success there. We say, "I just can't read that," so avoid it. Synthetic is just another varient.

I think one's enjoyment of wagering (financial success) at a particular location is more dependent upon that location (surface, type of race, population of horses) slotting comfortably into our individual style of handicapping than we probably realize.

Can we compare times on turf to times on dirt? Times at Kee (old dirt surface) to times for same distance at Calder?

Yes - they found out they didn't have as much horse as they thought ;) Happens every first Saturday in May, too ....

Cannon made a comment last Polythread, I believe, thought he said his impression training was that horses do not tire over it as readily as dirt (opposite of what I think I observe)

We're speed-crazy (2-year-old in training sales supports this contention). Look at the times for all distances over the past 100 years, how they improved to a certain extent, then stayed relatively stagnant.

It's not how fast you run, what matters is that you are fastest that race.

My opinion of polytrack so far has nothing to do with handicapping judgements.

It hasn't appeared on the circuits I've always really focused on.

Not all handicappers love horse racing, in fact, most don't. I love watching top class horse racing on both original surfaces. I'm a fan of quite a few different sports...but I would unquestionably watch a top class race I didn't have a bet in, before any different sport.

If a top class horse race on polytrack I had no bet in was running the same time a competitive bowling match was in late frames....I'd have a very tough decision on my hands.....and bowling is probably my 9th favorite sport to watch.

When you compare that 47 1/5th fraction (FOR 10K CLAIMING FILLIES!) to the 50 3/5th fraction (for older males in a 75K ALW race) --- you are comparing fractions run on the same day over the same track.

Please explain to me what on earth you are talking about in that quote?

What would bowlers do if rather than wooden, waxed lanes, they had to deal with a new, synthetic surface intended to even out the play of the lane throughout?

Maybe they'd all come over to horse racing (after the late-running bowling tourney is over and the Grade 1 can be televised :cool: )

Absolute raw time is not that important to my handicapping.

Edit: that statement is as overtly simplistic as it seems, DrugS, in the sense that I don't particularly care what raw times are - I just want to find the fastest horse that day, that track. The discussions by the professional figure makers (Brown, Beyer, etc) last year regarding how they were going to deal with artificial surfaces within the context of their figure making are obviously critical to those of us who use those products.

Yes, but you brought up comparing different tracks and different surfaces.

The fractions I compared, occured on the same surface, at the same track, on the same day.

I don't understand what final time speed figures (like Brown and Beyer make) have anything to do with fractional times.

By saying that you don't care what those raw fractions are---you are saying that you think pace is a meaningless handicapping factor---and it has no impact at all on the outcome of a horse race.

It might seem as though I'm giving you a hard time, but by dismissing those fractions, you are basically saying pace doesn't matter. Obviously, the best way to judge pace is to compare fractions with those in other similar races, on the same surface and card.

As a veterinarian, I fully embrace and support the use of artificial surfaces as safer for racing, and I'll hold that opinion unless overwhelming evidence to the contrary appears at some future time (which I doubt, based upon history of use in other countries. But other countries are not the US).

Certainly I expect that viewpoint to influence my acceptance of same from a wagering standpoint. But I still see the varients inherent within artificial surfaces as just another handicapping opportunity ;)

Cool.

I'd like to hear your position on pace....and how to judge it.

I think artificial surfaces give some horses, such as Nashoba's Key, a chance to perform in races we wouldn't otherwise see them in :)

I'm not a vet but I hold the same opinion.

I've heard that Arlington's field sizes have increased substantially. I'll be interested to see if that's the case at Del Mar too, look forward to seeing some figures.

I'm jealous of everyone who has all-weather tracks, here we have to race on swampy turf all winter. It's not fun.

I agree with all your points about polytrack.

We need time for the jockeys and trainers to develope some predictable patterns.

Great advice, thanks. I'm leaning towards that approach anyways, probably never a good idea to go full bore into a new track anyways and with the Poly it's completely foreign.

DrugS, I'm not avoiding your question, just trying to get back to the generality of, "Are synthetic surfaces the work of the devil incarnate, or not?" :)

I see it slightly differently: yes, if one has a horse entered over their head, that has to be carried and nursed to the finish line :)

How fast did Zee Topper run her final three furlongs over the artificial surface, closing to win? One can obtain speed on artificial surfaces, if one truely has a turn of foot. That horse stood out over the rest of her field on ability, and demonstrated it.

The male division didn't apparently have any horses with equal dominant ability. On some dirt tracks, the 7-1 shot could have indeed hung on to win - the "dream trip", as described.

But I think the description of "dream trip" says it all. Does this horse deserve to win at this class and distance?

The polytrack exposed it for what it was - a horse that can't gallop 12's and hold on for the distance it was entered at. It collapsed to a canter in the final two furlongs, and was readily passed by other horses that weren't very speedy, either.

Maybe the horses in this race truely belong in a lesser class?

Speed - true natural turn of foot - has wired and won at Keeneland, Arlington, Turfway, Woodbine, Hollywood, in even in Europe. The jocks riding truely good horses will use their horses speed and style of running to their advantage, and figure it out. The jocks on horses of lesser ability will have a harder time covering that up, no matter how slow they go.

Look at Sumwon's last race at Arlington - a duel between a front-runner running good fractions and accelerating at the end, and a mid-pack closer, coming down to an exciting stretch duel and ending a neck apart. Good races happen on artificial surfaces - if the horses are truely good.

Some horses, it turns out, have been carried by their tracks. They have speed in their pedigree, but no stamina (and I'm not talking route distance). Look at horses that won on the lead on Keeneland's rock-hard dirt rail, that couldn't repeat that performance elsewhere.

There are horses we thought had a certain amount of speed or class that are now being exposed, on synthetic surfaces, as not quite what we thought they were. And it appears it may be a rather significant segment of the breed.

That's my opinion on synthetic - your actual mileage may vary ;)

Most lanes now are synthetic and bowlers have made the necessary adjustments..

I am very excited about next year's Triple Crown trail.

How will the cream of the California crop, filtered via synthetic surfaces, perform when they come east?

I would just avoid this junk and just play the turf races. Cardus is right that horses just don't look to be running over it.

I don't think Del Mar gave itself enough time to get it right. What they should have done is taken 120k and put it into the renovation bill and run three 40k races before the start of the meet, no public,with like 8k claimers to let them observe how the track is and then make the necessary adjustments to get it to play fair. I am just surprised that the tracks that have installed these surfaces haven't run any test races to make sure things were good. Arlington has been lucky, but Turfway had the same issues at the start of the meet, along with Woodbine

What do you mean by filtered because I don't think Domincian's subsequent races since the Blue Grass indicate he belongs anywhere near the wire with Street Sense?

why is it junk? what did you see in two days to make that assessment?
I just don't see it, what is so unfair about it?

GASP! I'm ... shocked and appalled!

(Shows how long it's been since I've been in a bowling alley :p )

Just for the record Turfway's issues lasted the entire meet, as did Woodbines. I still dont think the surface is "All Weather" I think its all rain, it can handle water. Its not made to handle freeze, and its not made to handle hot Cali weather. I woudlnt be surprised at all to see the stuff start melting, or clumping like it did at TWP and Woodbine.

I'm pretty much with Riot here. I thought Keeneland was ugly, but not as bad this Spring. Last fall, from a racing perspective, it was exciting, though it may not have been the "best" racing in some peoples' eyes. However, for a handicapper, like Riot said, every surface has its own idiosyncracies and Keeneland was no different. If half of the people who spent weeks complaining about it instead of paying attention to it and figuring it out would have done the opposite, they would have been enjoying the same financial fun that I was enjoying at the time playing it. It made perfect sense to me, for once. People could handicap the old Keeneland surface so easily, and the new one for the first meet was essentially just the opposite. Adjust, and cash. Repeat.

It takes extra work to figure these races out once we figure out how the surface treats various running styles.

it's the same track for all so no problemo

47 1/5 is very fast for polytrack comparing it to the rest of the routes on the card. Most of the sprints on day 1 had comparable 47 and change 4f splits. No wonder the winner rallied form dead last. You have to stop comparing the splits on this track to splits on a normal track saying 47 is soft because it was soft on dirt or 26 change is a soft late fraction because it was soft on dirt.. Compare apples to apples.

in the second race that 48 change split looks fairly swift when compared to other races on the card and that early leader was only beaten a fraction.

This will be the first year the CA 2-year-olds will run primarily on synthetic surfaces. It will be interesting, when they take, "the best of that bunch", and bring them east, to see how they perform in the Triple Crown preps.