Guaranteed Pools
 

Seeing over $7MM dumped into the Hollywood Pick 6 pool in one day makes me wonder why tracks don't try offering more frequent, large guaranteed pools.

I still say Street Sense is only 50/50 to race again, by the way.

they are a adv ploy by tracks ..to get people interested..they dont over estimate what is going into the pools anyway..basicly what the totals would be anyway..they dont take gas so to speak...and street wins the bc classic

Calder is offering a $500,000 Guarantee Pick 5 on SOS day. It will reach 750k easily. It's a $2.00 bet w/ a mandatory payout. IIRC it had paid 30k+ three out of the last four years. They canceled the guarantee the year of the hurricane, They knew it wouldn't reach 500k. You know where I'll be if you want to partner a ticket.

Guaranteed pools are a con to make the bettors think they'll get a bigger payout than with a non-guaranteed pool. What's the advantage of playing a guaranteed pool?

zero..................

The advantage CAN BE that the pool generates a shortfall of the guaranteed amount and the track makes up the balance which can effectively eliminate a portion of the takeout. If there's a $500,000 guarantee and only $400,000 gets bet by the public, that's a 25% bonus in the pool as added by the guarantor. If takeout is 25% on the bet, it's been negated by the money the track put up.

Read Crist's piece from last week after the triple track P6 day... He addresses a tangental element of this discussion.

do you agree that this happens rarely.........

I have no idea of the frequency... Andrew will know.

Where Is Moe Green....lol

"I made my bones when you were going out with cheerleaders..."

want to take action on this comment?

I would guess rarely.

It just turned into a big rich man's lottery.
It happens in almost every State lottery. Once that amount starts turning over a number of times, everyone and their mother plays. But in racing the advantage goes to the guys that can cover the permutations. Hope for chalk on these days.

I've seen it happen at Calder at least once. It was like eliminating the takeout.

However, no one knows when it will fall short until all the bets are in, so you don't know when you have an advantage.

It usually falls short on a day of very inclement weather.

A great point.. And opportunity to score can increase from reduced field size with the ineviable scratches off tracks produce...

I never said there was an advantage, per se. But with wagers like the Pick 6 and maybe the Pick 4, bigger pools give you a chance at a bigger score. There is no way that the Pick 6 at Hollywood yesterday would have paid $500,000 on a regular day because there would not have been that much in the pool.

Also, I refuse to take actual action on my Street Sense prediction because I swore not to bet on horses until Travers Day.....unless there is a big Pick 6 carryover.

.....as I was saying.....

(Beyer's latest column)

Big jackpots are racing's best stimulant
By ANDREW BEYER

WASHINGTON - It is easy to cite evidence that American Thoroughbred racing is in moribund condition. Attendance at great tracks is often pathetic; when 3,000 people rattle around cavernous Belmont Park, the atmosphere is dispiriting. Public interest and media coverage of the sport has dwindled for all but a few big races....

AVAILABLE ON DRF TO DRF PLUS SUBSCRIBERS:
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=86363

I would guess the BIG Ticket players that hit the big one ,had probably six or more 5of 6 consolation tickets. Just looking at the last race. How many horses did the winners have covered? Iwould say noone had Valdivilas firster in the top three, While I didnt have anything close to a winner I did have the last leg but onlu after going 5 deep. The horse looked like a nice one but win early was a big negative

More than that. When you hit 6 of 6, you also have 5 of 6 one time for every losing horse on your ticket. So, if you play a 3x3x4x2x2x3 Pick 6 ticket, and hit 6 of 6, you also have 5 of 6 11 times.

Actually you added the Pick 6 carryover after the fact. Why not modify your announcement to take action on your ridiculous claim about Street Sense?

Nvmd...don't answer that. :rolleyes:

[quote=Pillow Pants]Actually you added the Pick 6 carryover after the fact. QUOTE]


Yes, I know. Hence the ".........". Does anyone on this board understand self-deprecation?

[quote=justindew]I understand that you're a chump who has no accountability. Not that i'd expect anything less from a blogger.

[quote=Pillow Pants]
Not an unexpected attitude from a guy with over 4,000 posts in less than a year.

Remind me how I am not accountable and you are? I missed that part.

That's funny you would insult a horse racing fan considering you're an aspiring journalist and people like me are your target audience.

Insulting me for post count is also insulting GPK, Cajungator, Scav, Danzig, blackthroatedwind, DaHoss9698, hooves, Downthestretch, etc.

Keep digging your hole.

Except they don't break my balls because I won't take their action on Street Sense. And they didn't insult me for being a blogger.

Nice try though.

[quote=Pillow Pants]
...and I'm still waiting for you to explain the whole accountability thing. What is it exactly that makes me unaccountable? Is it the fact that I use my real name? The fact that I keep a running list of my predictions for everyone to read? Or the fact that I list all of my wagers in "Selections"?

You're getting heat because it's a negative opinion, just like your idiotic opinion of post count = negative attitude.

It's all starting to make sense now. Your lack of following up on sources is due, in part, to your low opinion of horse racing and its fans. Why do your job when the public isn't as smart as you?

:cool:

You do have one point. I made the assumption that most people on boards like this get to high counts by constantly "trolling" or simply breaking balls. That was probably an illogical assumption for me to make, and it was wrong of me to lump all frequent posters at DerbyTrail into the same group. Although in my experience, that is the case with most boards.

I think you have the wrong idea of my "job" and my job history. My "lack of following up on sources"? Are you referring to the Hard Spun thing? See my first-ever post here for that explanation.

I also disagree with your characterization of my attitudes as "negative", although I will admit that I don't feel great about where this sport is headed. What can I say? Years of following this sport have led me to believe that Street Sense probably won't race again. I also think that some of those people/institutions who are supposed to be looking out for the sport are making short-sighted decisions and refuse to make the tough decisions that may be required to keep racing afloat.

And I have no idea why you say I have a low opinion of racing fans.

hell, seeing this made me look--didn't even pay attention to # of posts...

ah well, at least i'm in good company.

Still waiting.

And more than one person here agrees with me on Street Sense. Are they negative too?

But you know what Danzig, I don't recall seeing you break balls for fun. Although I haven't been here that long.

surely not!!!

well....the list does include kev!!!

lol

well, he will surely know i'm just joking! right kev??

I have a question. Do you consider yourself a journalist?

I am absolutely, without question, NOT a journalist.

Would I like to be a journalist one day? I think so.

Ok then. Then I'm sorry for the comment about accountability. I blame Churchill for hiring an amateur to do a professional's job.

They hired me to do the job of "blogger". I reported no news whatsover, nor did I claim to report news. I reported my obseravations and thoughts on the road to the Derby, and stated that clearly. Again, I have to ask how I failed to meet any standards on accountability?

Be specific.

I apologized. I thought you were a journalist since they are held to higher standards. I totally overlooked the fact that Churchill is notorious for cutting corners and hiring cheap help.