Tom Fool + Dwyer
 

A couple of nice races on the 4th of July at BEL - especially the Tom Fool. 4 out of the 6 horses entered are coming off of BIG wins
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In the Dwyer: First Defence ran a couple of huge races at BEL albeit a MSW and N1X - AGS and NoBiz make their returns following the KyDerby

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Tom Fool Breeders' Cup H. (G2)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Awesome Twist Castellano J J
2 Istan Desormeaux K J
3 High Finance Velazquez J R
4 Rondo Prado E S
5 Will He Shine Gomez G K
6 Commentator Nakatani C S
7 Saint Anddan Bejarano R

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Dwyer S. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Helsinki Nakatani C S
2 Nobiz Like Shobiz Velasquez C Blk-Off
3 Sightseeing Prado E S Blk-On
4 Believeinmenow Luzzi M J
5 First Defence Castellano J J
6 Any Given Saturday

Now there's a good pair of stakes races, unlike that bulldung we saw today at BEL.

I've been waiting for First Defence to jump into stakes company.

Horse is good. Go look at his replay from his last, which was the first off a monster layoff.

Get excited.

Yup I was there in person to watch them run....poorly :(

Great weather. nice crowd, poor racing.

PS did they mention on TV...where was the Chief Allen Jerkins? His wife was there to accept the trophy for the Suburban. He never misses a day of racing!

dwyer, tom fool
 

Belmont Park - July 4th, 2007 - Race 8
Tom Fool Breeders' Cup H. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 4:43 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward
Purse: $200,000
Distance: Seven Furlongs
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Awesome Twist (KY) 5 Horse 115 Javier Castellano
2 Istan (KY) 5 Horse 116 Kent J. Desormeaux
3 High Finance (KY) 4 Colt 114 John R. Velazquez
4 Rondo (KY) 4 Colt 114 Edgar S. Prado
5 Will He Shine (KY) 5 Horse 117 Garrett K. Gomez
6 Commentator (NY) 6 Gelding 119 Corey S. Nakatani
7 Saint Anddan (KY) 5 Horse 119 Rafael Bejarano


Belmont Park - July 4th, 2007 - Race 9
Dwyer S. - Grade: 2
Estimated Local Post Time: 5:15 PM
Race Type: Stakes
Breed: Thoroughbred
Age Restriction: Three Year Old
Purse: $150,000
Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles
Surface: Dirt
Post Horse Name Age Sex Weight Jockey Name
1 Helsinki (KY) 3 Colt 117 Corey S. Nakatani
2 Nobiz Like Shobiz (KY) 3 Colt 123 Cornelio H. Velasquez
3 Sightseeing (KY) 3 Colt 121 Edgar S. Prado
4 Believeinmenow (FL) 3 Colt 117 Michael J. Luzzi
5 First Defence (KY) 3 Colt 117 Javier Castellano
6 Any Given Saturday (KY) 3 Colt 121 Garrett K. Gomez

PP's.....

Tom Fool...

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_79293.pdf

Dwyer.....

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...cher_79336.pdf

stonewall jackson was called 'tom fool', wonder if that is who the horse was named for??

Looks like #6 and #6 to me. Both Fav's I know.
Comm. isn't going to have things all on his own on the front. That race looks like it it could flatter some of the the ones coming from off the pace.

:( Hope he's ok.:(

I'm leaning towards Nobiz in the Dwyer.

Any Given Saturday is working like a champion worm eater.

So is Nobiz.

He intrigues me. His sire just started to come into his own at this point. I'm interested in seeing how Nobiz has matured since the Derby.

Certainly better than the poo poo that was Saturday but still, not much to get excited about from a wagering perspective. Commentator either rolls or runs off the board... High Finance might be the one if that's the case, but I wouldn't take less than 5/2 on him and the Sheet number/Beyer was huge for his last and he'll get bet down off that. Rondo will take some money but he isn't good enough.

Not really. He had a two week break. That's always a red flag.

Perhaps, but with Tagg training him I can't see him running the horse if he isn't ready.

He'll need to be more than ready if he's going to beat Sightseeing and AGS. JMHO.

He's not terribly slow. I thought his close in the Peter Pan was impressive. Seems to be improving and note he's undefeated at Belmont.

I really like Nobiz Like Showbiz in the Dwyer.
He ran what was arguably his best race ever in the Holy Bull off of a similar long layoff. Although AGS's strong work on Friday seems to indicate that he might be ready on Wednesday, his performances in Tampa this winter/spring seems to indicate that he runs stronger 2nd off.
Sightseeing and First Defence are simply a step below these two in my opinion. In the Wood Memorial, Nobiz zipped the third quarter while Sightseeing loped along off the pace. Despite that favorable scenario, he couldn't get by Nobiz in the stretch. His victory in the G2 Peter Pan on this track will probably mean he will be overbet.
First Defence has won races against MSW and N1X competition when he had his own way on the front end of sprint races. I don't think he is in the same league as AGS or Nobiz.

I bet Prom Shoes in the N. Dancer @ CD against Chelokee and he didn't pick his feet up.

As our fearless leader (BTW) likes to say; First Defence eliminates the take out for me.

I don't think U can compare this race and layoff for AGS to the one this march. Pletcher knew it was going to be a long year for this colt and wasn't going to have him primed for his 1st start of the year. I think Todd realizes this is a great spot to pick up the colt 1st graded stake before he runs into Curlin, R2R, and S.S.

I didn't know that. Well that automatically makes Sightseeing a toss.

True, but I would say that his best races at both 2 and 3 came at Aqu, not Belmont. Who has he actually beaten in those two Belmont races?

I am just pointing out that the horse that Sightseeing had to gut out a photo with came back to run a clunker.
I know U don't care who I lose my $$ on.

I really like posters like U that when others are trying to have a legit convo. about a big race U are just looking for the opp. to make a smart ass post.:mad:

A legit convo? All you implied was because Prom Shoes had a bad race at CD, that Sightseeing is overrated. That's just ridiculous.

I'm giving legit reasons why he has a shot. Yes, I am a smart ass. Boo hoo.

Here's another reason why I think Sightseeing has a shot...

First Defence looks like he's being trained to steal the race. NoBiz seems like a horse who isn't comfortable if he doesn't have the lead before the far turn. He's not getting it if First Defence doesn't stumble out of the gate. They'll be battling for the lead and that will leave the stalkers Any Given Saturday and Sightseeing with a legitimate chance.

Also Sightseeing improved dramatically May 31st work to his June 10th work and he's adding blinkers for the race. I'm thinking (and would like to know) blinkers were added for that June 10th work.

Thank you.

Sounds like the Exacta to me.

Supposedly, they're removing the blinkers off of Nobiz.

First Defence would win if Frankel wasn't going to scratch him. . . Which really annoys me. . .

He's scratching Saint Anddan too! This guy has become a running gag, LOL!

that's two entries now for saint anndan that he'll scratch...and i want to see him run again.

and yes, tagg took blinkers off nobiz a few weeks ago. probably made him too rank still.
i will be pulling for sightseeing. as for commentator, how to know who will show up? he's so undependable.

What is the deal with Frankel?

Is he a great trainer because he finds the best (softest?) spots for his horses?

Or a weak trainer because he's too cautious.

He seems to be doing this a ton lately. And don't get me wrong, I'm pissed he's not going to give First Defence a shot but it seems like it's a trend with this guy and not just a one-time thing.

saint anddan scratched?? FIRST DEFENse *groan*:rolleyes:

Is there a link to see scratches for a day in advance?
Would be very helpful.

thanks

Nah, these were just word from the DRF.

THE TWIST....LOL,,,my clocker says rondo is sore....lmfao:D

According to Todays TDN Sightseeing "has had a couple of good works with blinkers . . ."

With all the early speed in the Tom Fool, I'm thinking Saint Anddan could sit right off the pace and make a late run when Bejarano asks for it.
But, if Commentator is ready to run, the race will be for 2nd.
I plan on using St. Anddan under Commentator if Frankel doesnt scratch out.

Most of Frankel's horses it seems gets scratched every other race.
There should be rules against being able to do this..