6/29: BEL (P4); HOL (Carry)
 

Highly lucrative afternoon at BEL Thursday with a solid P4 hit ($287.00) and a pair of Exotic sweeps in the 6th and 9th. The $121.00 Super in the 6th was but a preview of the scoreout in the finale which brought back the $4,230 Super, $992 Tri and $147 Exacta (all $1).. Hitting five of the P6 was Conso-ed with the $39.20 helping defray the $96 investment.. Heard from several successful DTers and 'At the Races' listeners, and hope all did well!

Tough Late P4 at Belmont today, but we'll try to the Quad, and a $95,000 Carryover looks inviting as well!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES..

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P4, DD) NOTE: OFF THE TURF!!!

SELECTIONS ALTERED WITH 'OTT' SCRATCHES...

1. #2 bin Suroor entry 2-1 2 LEO & 2X MINEFIELD TO RUN AS OF NOW...
2. #9 Bold Mon 10-1
A. #5 Out of Gwedda 5-1
B. #7 Ryan is Flying 12-1


7th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3)

1. #4 Precise Lady 8-1
2. #5 Montauk Daisy 9-5
A. #3 Cateleisha 5-2
B. #7 Lady Elaine 7-2


8th: OC/N3X, 4+, 1m-T (DD)

1. #7 Real Quality 6-1
2. #8 Giant Basil 9-5
A. #1e bin Suroor entry 3-1
B. #5 Thunder Pass 12-1


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-T (Super)

1. #6 Broadway Bud 4-1
2. #8 Let's Get Going 3-1
A. #9 Good Looking Out 8-1
B. #1 Party Jones 8-5

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #2 Fling in Deauville 10-1


<$50 P4 Play:

6th: (2) 2e
7th: (3) 3, 4, 5
8th: (2) 1e, 7, 8
9th: (4) 1, 2, 6, 8, 9

$45



HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES.. Dime Supers.. Rolling Doubles..

3rd: CLM, F&M-4+, 5f (P3, P6)

1. #8 Gotta Go Gal 10-1
2. #3 Jimmie Pong 3-1
A. #9 Lil Nugget 5-2
B. #1 I'maladytak 7-2


4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (P3)

1. #8 Truckee Lite 5-1
2. #11 Slew Faced 8-1
A. #12 McClintock 15-1
B. #6 Surfer Kris 7-2

LONGSHOT/SUPER ADD: #2 Two Steppin Bart 50-1


5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3)

1. #6 Sum Mistake 7-2
2. #7 Four Four Two 8-1
A. #4 Court of Queens 3-1
B. #1 Here Comes Ray Ray 6-1


6th: MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P3)

1. #9 Tanner's Rocket 7-2
2. #6 Royal Albert 20-1
A. #8 Storms of Life 5-1
B. #1a Bad Boy 5-2


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f-T

1. #3 Charmin Dot 5-2
2. #8 Categorize 9-5
A. #6 Whatwerewethinking 8-1
B. #4 Moogie 6-1


MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f

1. #7 Capture the Cat 3-1
2. #4 Stays in Vegas 9-2
A. #11 San Lameer 7-2
B. #6 Color New 15-1


<$100 or <$200 P6/<$50 P4 Plays:

3rd: (2) 3, 8
4th: (1) 8
5th: (2) 6, 7
6th: (3) 6, 8, 9
7th: (2) 3, 8
8th: (4 or 2) 4, 7 [6, 11 optional for $192 Play]

P6: 96 (x $2) = $192 (To cut ticket to $96, drop 6-11 from last leg of P6)
P4: 2x3x2x4 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Gosh, I am so impatient...I keep looking for the Wood.....I am such a loser.

:D

"The phone book's here!! The new phone book's here!!"

Steve, PLEASE don't use Gotta Go Gal whatever. Seriously. watch the race, the horse is just waiting to break down, has a wing instead of a leg.......PLEASE don't lead the DT faithful onto that horse.

Happens that I have to call Peter Miller later, who had her before Fama... Will see what he has to say..

Prognosis will be a bum right front

We have talked about that horse before as he has been apart of some pretty serious P6's, looks very off......Farma's numbers are juiced up from his Los Al wins, I don't think he has won a race at Hollywood.....

He may have been showcasing her try to get her claimed, but her workout last week was obviously sharp...

I do'nt have a form here right now but i think she always works fast. I am telling you, watch a replay, I think the race about two or three back shows it great becuase she is on the outside of things, IMO she shouldn't be running. I think she was a jock scratch two weeks ago, or three weeks ago

I could be wrong though, I didn't even look at her because of that knowledge, probably bite me in the ass

Just a heads up, she was a vet scratch on June 8th....notice no works on that day or until the nice one recently. She is a train wreck waiting to happen, the question is will it happen tonight or is there enough tape to keep it together one last time.

Also, I didnt like Mandella's first timer (Push Send) in the 6th but this is Brad Free's best bet - says he has been working super...I thought this was a prep for longer.

I knew it on the vet scratch. I am using Push Send, got to IMO.

THe horse that I am awful interested in is Pica Fresa, 2nd Lasix, decent numbers. Gets a drop in class to the bottom and might get the trip, Nakatini and Court's horses, they quit, especially Nak's horse. Nak getting on looks like a use though

I am interested in Pica Fresa.....This is one tough race. Two big priced first timers caught my eye. First, Oneal's #3 Twice Justified - Cohen hops off Pica Fresa and on here. These Lit De Justice horses always surprise. Also. the #9 Seveohtwo for no name trainer. 4 of the last 5 drills were decent from the gate. That usually means go time, and By Cee's Tizzy it may be able to run a bit.

Cohen has to jump when he gets an opportunity to ride for O'Neil, over Pender, it is better to run last for O'Neil then run 3rd for Pender.

This is a very hard sequence, alot of crap races. I have settled on singling Nak's horse in the 7th, and I am not comfortable with that at all....

The 4th and 6th races are off the turf.....the 8th and 9th are on.

First time poster needs some clarification
 

Steve, in the 4th at Hollywood, you are showing #8 Truckee Lite (5-1 ML) as a value play; and showing #11 Slew Faced (8-1 ML) as the most likely winner at any price. I'm thinking that if SF is the most likely winner and has higher odds than TL, he should be better value than TL. Do you feel that SF will be bet down lower than TL, or that he will be used more in exotics, thus reducing his "exotic value".

I've only been on the site for a few days and have really been enjoying it. GL to all.

Thx Andrew!

Don..

You're right.. The explanation of the 1-2/A-B is 'thumbnail' sketch... I'm making Truckee Lite a single in the sequence, so I kind of have to put him on top.... I suppose the #6 (Surfer Kris) should be the "2." horse with the 11/12 as the exotics players. The three under Truckee seem interchangeable to me a bit...

Pleased to have you here. Welcome...

I've worked through the first half of the Holly card. For what it's worth, in third I've got it 9/3/1 with Gotta Go Gal on the suspect list for the reasons mentioned by others.

In the fourth race, on my figures I've got Surfer Kris as a big standout. Most likely this will be a single for me. I think this horse rolls over this field easily.

Steve, thanx for the quick response.
 

Keep up the good work!

Because of the drop? My only question is why drop from MSW all the way to 25k when you could go to 40 or 50k, that scares me a little. Also going to a completely different distance. Different friends at this level. I am at 6-7-8-9 and can easily be talked out of the 9.....

yes the drop, but primarily because he is simply faster, and has a good route foundation. the distance is also a bonus imo. the horses he just ran very respectively against, frank the Barber and Vice Admiral are much much better than this field. sometimes its best not to overthink a drop, sometimes its just to get the win and purse and not a sign of a big problem.

Friday Belmont Changes...
 

BELMONT: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

so much for my single in the 1st leg of the P6 :(

As expected there's a bunch.....Glad I didn't really dig into this card yet

Steve, R6 - now that we don't have True Cause as part of that Godolphin entry, do you feel as strongly about this selection on top w/ Minefield?
Trainer stats are a relatively small sample with obvious quality stock, but 55% of 11 off the +180 days and 32% first time with is hard to ignore

I agree with Jim. Surfer is a single in the pk6, and I am adding the 5,10,12 at big odds in the pk4. I am not a beliver in Truckee on top but he is a plodder who should hit the board. With Paula owning and traing, and purchasing this one for $17k, I think it is in for the win. Plus it was 55-1 on the board last out, so while it has not run too bad it is obvious the public has been looking for a drop. That does influence sometimes.

TGIF ... Weekend mode starts with the late Pick-4

1,2,5,9/5,6/2,5,7,1,4,9/1,8==>$96.00
5,9/5/2,9/1,2,5,6,8,9======>$24.00
5,9/3,4,7/1,2,9/8,1========>$36.00
2/3,4,5,6,7/2,1,7,8/1,8=====>$40.00
======
196.00

Good Luck All

PS...

Great day yesterday Steveo...

the 5f in the 3rd scares me a bit....all of the chalk will be stalking or closing....do you think any other prices look interesting? Like the 11 which adds blinkers back and continues to drop?

For purposes of the P4, yes. Prefer to isolate there and fish elsewhere for prices including the nightcap. If you don't accept the entry in the 6th, then it gets wacky needing 2-3 to cover.

I am hoping to get all nuts on this thing tonight, but it entails hitting the early DD without Noble Court, I like Cerin's horse a little. 1,5/1 DD

Well, good luck.....I am not crazy about that play but I will cheer you home Scavs as I want you to come hard at the 6 tonight.

i'm can't find anything really. the 11 adding blinkers? well they tried that before, i'm not buying it. to me it looks like they in desparation mode and will try anything, dropping, blinkers, etc. don't think it will matter.

I would be shocked if the winner wasn't either the 9 or 3, perhaps the 1.

look at the 4, rocketship and getting Lasix BACK finally

yes scavs, just added the 4 to my pk4...specially since the speed ball 7 Melodious has scratched......

that horse can hold for 5f, and the re-addition of Lasix is a huge positive IMO....

What are the thoughts on the 9, Tanner's Rocket, in the 6th race? Looks competitive on speed figures, and Steve sees fit to place in the #1 spot in his selections, but I'm concerned about wheeling back on 5 days rest after a 1 1/16 effort in which he appeared to tire late.

yeah I did look at the 4, as he was about the only other one I thought might have a shot. I'm pretty hohum on him though, you can see the 1 and the 3 in his pp lines, and he didn't fare very well against them before. He does have some speed so its not entirely impossible. I'm not convinced that adding the lasix at this point is a big deal. I think this guy needs a soft field of calbreds at Fairplex.

5f is the ONLY thing he has going for him. If it was 6f I agree he would get drummed by these like the past...

Steve,

maybe i'll bring you some luck tonight b/c there is no way Jimmie Pong gets anywhere on my tickets. The reason why i say it will bring you luck is b/c i've been standing on an iceberg the last month or so. This horse is a consistent hanger, cost me a nice PK4 last out and though it looked like he was gonna get by Lil Nugget in the previous race he just hung on and held the 2nd place spot.

gl all

-bt-

the 11 is the sleeper, I'm telling ya....

Got 4 going in on the pk6

3)1,9,11
4)6
5)1,4,7
6)1,2,5,9,11
7)3,8
8)4,9,14
$540

pk4's
1)2,3
2)1,7
3)1,9,11,4
4)5,6,10,12
$48

5)1,4,7
6)1,2,11
7)8
8)4,6,8,9,14
$45


Good Luck ALL

I finally agree, I am singling the 6 also, Paula ****s me and it will be tilt time because otherwise, I should hit it. I am considering Moogie in the 7th, back to O'Neil is my only angle.....(good recent works)

I am going to try tonight.

Early pick 4

1) 2,3,4
2)1,5
3)1,4,8
4)6,9

Goodluck everyone