need "imo" feedback as owner
 

... ok... throwing this out there for some feedback. one of my horses has been running at belmont in $44,000 races all winter and now the trainer & partner threw him into fingerlakes for (2) 18,200 races .... what's going on? i would like to hear some seasoned opinions before i make my calls. thanks.

call your trainer and partner and ask.

not really enough info to go off of but:

if he has been "running all winter for 44k" maybe your horse is stuck in a condition that he can't win at belmont and running at FL he will have a better chance of winning and clearing that condition by facing a softer field.

I agree, not enough info, but... If you are running for 44k on the inner in the winter, that does not equate to summer success at Belmont.

Had you said your horse was running for 44k and winning regularly, then by all means he should be given a shot at Belmont.

Is your horse jersey breed?

no .. NY. the horse is log jam.

did that .... said they couldn't get a race written for him (log jam, NY bred) at monmouth so they went to FL. so now i'm figuring the trainers daily fee vs. that size purse may not equate to a break even point.

OK, the reason I asked was, NJ State Breds have bigger purses than NY bred races. I can see where any owner of NY breds, may look into NJ breds in the future, for better purses, and lighter fields.

that's more or less our focus.... breed NJ breds - 1 a year -on a very small scale. some partnerships were formed 3 yrs. back which is how log jam got into the picture. squan warrrior is the only nj bred running this year at monmouth - did nicely in his first time start last sunday at monmouth.

The NJ racing season is so much shorter than NY that the purse differential is meaningless.

How do you figure that out? Most of the NY horses go south for the winter. I think spring through fall is a good meet, then ship to Kentucky, then to Florida. You have crap cards in NY most of the time, and AQU sucks all winter.

You still have the state bonus races daily in the winter for the NY breds. The J breds have a few months to make their money, then get the **** kicked out of them the remainder of the year

I don't feel like Log Jam has run lately. Considering he won his NW1X in late December ( the first day after the Christmas break....right? ) I would guess if they are shipping to Finger Lakes to run for so much less money that perhaps he has some issues? Obviously he's better running for the NY-Bred NW2X purse at Belmont or Saratoga, however they also don't run a huge amount of these going long, but you should ask them why they don't feel it's worth waiting for that race in NY......and also why he hasn't raced recently.

When was his last start?

Are you still with Contessa? He's usually very accessable and more than willing to work with owners for what he feels is the best course of action for particular horse.
Non winners of 2 is tough right now....When you say that you've been racing in Allowance company all winter, did you enter for the tag on 3/2/07? If not, you are looking at N3X and that is slim pickings in NY vs. State Bred Company....is that right?

The state breds own the AQ Inner meet. It's when the locals have the chance to make a living. Even at AQU in January, NYB maidens are running for around $40k. Race a Jersey bred and you have from May to November to make a living against NJ breds. The rest of the year you run at PHA or AQU or Penn but you wont get to run in statebred restricted races.

It's those "sucky" cards that allow some of the smaller operations to make it through Belmont, regroup during Saratoga and then gear up through the Belmont fall for another winter at AQU. The smaller barns wait until the big guns leave town that they plan to have horses eligible for conditions in Dec/Jan/Feb that they would have no hope in during June/July/Aug.

Yea I know all that, Gary and Anthony's time to get fed. What will they do when the welfare truck leaves town when the GOV sells the joint. NJ breds do well at the fair grounds, and also in Kentucky. Most NY breds will never make it out of their conditions, and never run in open company, so they will attemtp to make more NY bred races for the loosers. Make sense I guess.

still with contessa. log jam's entered 6 races since his december win (2 wins in 2006 and that photo-tie win on 3/2/07) ... btw... is that what you meant by tag? if so yep, we are looking at N3X and looks like we're we're written out ..... but after all of this feedback my gut instincts to accept a claiming race might be the wisest option.

btw

Hes won 3 times, last race was June 11th. Really the horse should blow that 4l condition that they write at finger lakes, then be put in for 25 to run. Nobody is going to claim a horse with no conditions whos already topped out as a mid level claimer.

Jersey, you can make pleanty of money with him knocking around for 25 and hes really a tough take for a quarter after he blows that 4L allowance condition they write at Finger

well if they're bred right nj breds hit florida too.... especially after the barn conditions at the meadowlands. if they're not worth the florida trip then they're not worth owning imo. (although now & then we switch trainers and send them to the minors).

Thanks, I forgot about the dead heat in early March.

There are no NW3X restricted to NY Breds at NYRA, and he really isn't fast enough to compete in open NW races at NYRA where he gets the restricted exemption. Therefore, his opportunities in NY are minimal and the condition at Finger Lakes is probably his best option. The truth is, with a lot of these NY breds, while it's great if they can be competitive in the conditional allowance races, once they blow their condition their value is usually not very high.

I would imagine that Contessa has a great handle on all this and is trying to find the best spot for him. You've done more than OK with him over the past six months.

Re Log Jam
 

I pulled your PP's for Friday. Allow me to be blunt.

After clearing the NW2 in early Mar. you were beaten 9 by Again and Again (now hurt) and Wing Man. Both are pretty good horses who themselves might have a hard time w/NW1 horses at this tme of year. I assume that Log Jam had no real excuse. he "ran his race" but wasn't good enough. If he couldn't be cometitive with NW1 horses in March, he wont be in July when things are tougher.
After taking April off you returned in the Kingston H on grass. Log Jam has not shown any real love for turf and horses like Dave and Golden Commander and Papa Da are pretty much established commodities. Any way you look at things, that race was tough.

If you go to NJ you have to run in the (rare) NW3x and THAT is also very tough. Check out the Beyer pars for that level at Monmouth. Instead you head to F'lakes where you meet the (once very promising) Rises the Phoenix. That one wins by 8 while you run a reasonably good second with a BSF in the high 70's. Assuming that with a 4l advantage over the 3rd horse that Log Jam "could" have gone a bit faster but didn't need to, he could have earned an 80. An 80 is not going to win a NW3x at Monmouth or a NW1x at Belmont.

The racing is far more competitive in the summer months and horses that flourish in allowance conditions in January may find the "same level" a bit deep in July. It looks like the idea is to run him where he fits. The purses are smaller but once the winter rolls around you may find yourself back in NY running for more $$$.

yes... gary's done good, and he turned that horse around. fortunately he had trained prime timber horses before and knew where he belonged.

Usually his Prime Timbers go straight to the "nut collector" :D

I see Log Jam is a pair light as well...

aren't they writing those nys bred races now with an optional claimer? you could run him back against the nw2 with a tag, right?

i don't know if we can run him against the nw2 with a tag ... that's why i joined this derby forum ... but i've learned more this morning from everyone's input - so thanks. (where else can a weanling become a yearling in half a day?) but i have spoken to my partner as a result, and told them what i thought should be done with log jam, and the claimer option has been agreed to -- may even show up at saratoga which would be a sweet excuse to get up there other than weekends.

There is a race on July 6 at BEL, a State Bred NW2X/NW3L/OCLM30,000 that he can run in. It is basically the condition he just cleared except this time he is entered for a tag. It's race 9 in the condition book. Link below.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbH...0706-20070706D

now that info is getting me to call gary right now.... THANKS.

He can run in the NW2x/Opt FOR THE TAG. Just be aware that that condition, especially with the tag is more competitive now than it was in March. Allowing horses in for $30k means that some tough old $25-35k types may show up. Horses like Seeking the Glory or his ilk run in them alot. It can be tough to get your 4th win against horses with 8, 10 or 12 wins. Some of those old mid-level claimers are very good horses.

I understand your point Linny, but Seeking the Glory specifically is running in sprints, as most of those "salty types" tend to do. Seems as though Log Jam is at his best going long, which is what that July 6th race is slated for.

STG is a sprinter but serves as an example of they class of horse that may show up. Agreed though that most of the real hard knocking types are sprinters.
I have a friend w/ a nice grass horse elig for NW2 (NYB) and when he goes in the opt claiming he struggles w some of the old classy $35k types that show up.

stupid unrelated question .... why is sam houston showing up under my jersey bred name on these posts?

That's a bad spot. Older Turf horses can be real tough, and because it's turf, they like to go long. Finding a dirt horse that can go long over a period of time is tough to do which is why those longer distance dirt races don't fill as often. I think Log Jam could find himself in a good spot if he runs back there.

As you move up in # of posts past yearling you get different tracks. Mine is Ellis Park. It should say "older mare, going long..."

Well... almost none. They wrote two last year at Belmont spring... Chestertown Slew won one of them (Met Mile day). Don't recall seeing any since.

thank you all ... i got what i needed. to be honest i thought this is incredible ... and then i read a few of the other threads and noticed the names and though but how credible? ... you gotta luv it. thanks again ... you are 'imo' - my secret weapon.

Are you sure you want to sell the horse for $32,000? I assume you guys bought him for $87,000 at the Ocala April Two Year Old Sale. He's already earned $112,000. I assume you realize that running him for a $32,000 tag means that you are offering him for sale for $32,000.

I realize that your options are somewhat limited, but I still don't know if it would be a good idea to lose him for $32,000 right now. I would imagine the reason Gary wants to run at FL is because he doesn't want to let the horse go for $32,000 at this point. If you want to run him for $32,000 eventually, you might as well get some more money out of him in easy spots at FL first.

That horse is not worth $32K......not really even close.

What does what was paid for him as a 2YO matter? He has now established his value and pretty much run out of conditions.

i know ... but i also want to see log jam pay his way moving forward since i'm operating on such a small scale and breaking even is the only business option i've got.... so i question who will find value in him if we can't even place him? not to mention i don't even have full control since this is a partnership with a partner with a LOT of horses. they can afford the losses but for me it's cold cash.

You say that he's not worth $32,000. Don't they have state-bred claiming races? He could run right back in the race that he just won. He'd have to run for a tag to be eligible, but he'd have a decent shot to win. He probably couldn't compete in an open $32k claiming race, but in a state bred he would probably be fine.

Are you familiar with this horse's pps?