P6 SYMPOSIUM: Carryover Contest
 

Good opportunity again for another DT Carryover Experience...

Hollywood ($180k), Churchill ($97k) and Belmont ($72k) all have carries... Last time we did this it was a very worthwhile endeavor... We had a ball and I think everyone learned a lot about ticket structure, investment strategies, etc.

$2,500 bankroll... and I'll see if Andy is willing to moderate again...

I plan to have Brad Free and 2 more guests on 'ATR' to cap the '6's' on Tuesday...

Thoughts? Just the HOL carry? Or any one (or more) that anyone wants to enter? I'll offer "DT/ATR" prizes again...

Im down for sh*ts and giggles.

Need some work on my capping anyways...


I would prefer Belmont as opposed to Holly or Church.....but I will go with whatever we decide.

I think it's fine to use all three.....though people can play any or all. Plays MUST be between $2400 and $2500 for each carryover and multiple tickets are encouraged.

Sounds good....

I'm a definite for BEL, most likely HOL too.

I would like to take a shot in the dark. Sounds interesting.

The original Contest/Symposium thread... http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9062

I will take a crack at Belmont

Prolly just BEL and HOL but I might look at CD as well for the hell of it. Good call...

Count me in.

Keep in mind the intent of the "Symposium/Exercise" is to hone our collective skills building P6 tickets using Steve Crist's A-B-C-X method with multiple tickets that weigh 'prime includes' and 'backup options' (as opposed to the equally weighted style 'caveman' tickets).

If you weren't on DT for our first pass at this, read through the linked thread (above, or in the Charles Hatton Reading Room) to get a feel for what we were trying to accopmplish... Andy Serling, who has hit two $100,000+ P6's, will be available as moderator to help explain building these plays. The exercise is intended to demonstrate how difficult it is to hit P6's, even with 'big money', and was tremendously helpful and fun when we did it a few months back...

Prizes for all three P6 opps Wednesday including 'ATR' and 'DT' swag and DRF Press publications (like Crist's Exotic Betting book)..

'At the Races' will also feature special coverage of the P6's today, Tuesday and Wednesday with Andy, Brad Free, Jon White and others offering their insights on the sextets, and I'll be playing as many of the races live on the show Wedneday as possible (BEL 7th-9th; CD 7th-9th; HOL 3rd-6th)...

Looks like fun. I might give one of these a run with real $$, though not $2.5K!

I'm in.

Thanks for doing this again Kasept & BTW. :)

I'll do it.

I'll post the winning ticket some time Wednesday morning.:)


for Hollywood that is.

I'm in, thanks.

OK. Took a first look at Belmont.

Certainly need to do further examination and possible regrading. Mainly concerned with a structure that makes sense at this point. Never tried this before for pick6...

Here is what I did:

After grading horses A,B,C,X. I first constructed a strict A,B ticket.
4X2X3X2X3X3=$864

Next thought was to alternate C's with A's in all other races. I had small number of A horses, so I regraded B's to Create B+. Next set to include A's and B+ with C's in any one race. Guess my risk is that if my C's win more than one leg I'm out. Perhaps I should cover multiple C's with leftover cash.

I had C horses in 4 of the 6 races. I used C's in each leg with A, B+ in all others. 4 additional tickets totaling $1,044.

Balance to potentially use covering multiple C's $592.

Main question is does this structure make any sense? Biggest concern right now iis that my main A,B ticket seems short for only 35% of total investment. Am I spending too much on covers?

Thanks

Sounds like a reasonable structure to me.

Thanks. I will keep working with this general concept and see how it shakes out.

Finding this much harder than I thought...

This could be fun
 

I need some experience so are we doing Churchill Belmont or Hollywood or all three.

Thanks for the opportunity Mister Byk

Aaron

I'll probably get in with a Churchill ticket. Thanks much to Steve and Andy for putting this together.

Halfway through the Holly 6. Looks very tough to me.

They didn't help matters by starting it out with a State Bred 10k claimer and the third leg is a full field of 25k N2L with your usual dose of droppers, long layoffs and recent maiden winners. These two races sandwich a MSW grass race that looks pretty wide open.

Yikes. Gotta watch some replays tonight to help me narrow it down.

Agreed on Hollywood. The problem is I am capping to the $2,500 ticket and I think I will end up liking what I come up with but then have to cut it down to a $150 ticket that I actually bet. That sux.

I am doing the opposite, I am capping for the ticket I will play and then I will add the others in that don't make the cut to get my $2,500 contest play. I think that way I'll second guess myself only slightly less.

Finished Belmont with a $2,800 set of tickets. Guess I will wait and see if scratches get me under budget. Otherwise I will have to get out the ax tomorrow.

I have $1,950 main ticket. And $850 in "C Horse" covers (two tickets).

Decided to pare down C horses and beef up main ticket a bit.

On to Holllywood...

Encourage those that are shy about questions to come forward.. Andy will be happy to explain ticket structure to you and how to build a mnain play and backups...

The concept is simple...

A's: Horses that must be on the tickets

B's: Horses that will be included on the main play

C's: Secondary choices that are included on the backup tix

X's: Horses eliminated from your plays

I go first, What is the sequence - main ticket A/B and then A/C's and then ..............

Andy/Steve/Others,

Thanks for taking the time to do this.

Do you have an idea of the number of horses you'll classify as "A's," or does it vary from card to card? In other words, do you want no more than 1 "A" per race, or no more than 8 over the course of the sequence, etc?

I have another question that's somewhat off topic, but does relate to multi-race wagers. Andy, you've talked about the placement of maiden races in the sequence, because of the importance of being able to see the board when betting those races in exotics. What do you recommend looking at most - is it strictly horses that are bet heavily, or would you base it more on early/late money, biggest movement from morning line, other factors?

The number of A horses fluctuates based on the races and opinions. Since A horses directly affect the cost of back-up tickets they are an integral part of the cost of the overall play. In simple terms going from one A in a race to two As will pretty much double the cost of your back-ups. All this comes down to how you spend your money on individual horses. In other words, using one A in any race will significantly alter how much more money you can spend in other places. Every horse you add will essentially come at the expense of other horses you will either leave off or use for less money. This is why, for instance, in a race with a solid single, deciding to use a much lesser as an additional A can be a poor choice as it will cost you horses in other races that may be significantly more important to use. Playing, and hitting, these bets can be very much, and usually is, about ticket structure within bankroll. Our opinion will rarely be good enough for six races to get through just by being " handicapping smart. "


Your other question is a more complex one, as being " bet strongly " is relative to the horse's connections. Some horses are effectively dead on the board at 3-1 or 7-2 while others can be live at 8-1. The biggest issue I have with race placement is that while it will usually not be perfect, there are too many multi-race bets, tracks need to be much more concious of optimal race placement. Hopefully we will have worked out a strict plan for this at NYRA by the time Saratoga starts. I have had the conversation and this should be worked out.

I'll throw a question out there...& please keep in mind I'm not a pick 6 bettor. I was thinking of constructing 6 tickets, each with one single in a different race w/who I think is the most likely winner. I'll spread out on the rest. Not sure how much I can do that at $400 apiece, but I'm just kicking ideas around in my head. Is this a bad idea?

Remember, there's no such thing as a stupid question, only stupid people that ask questions :D

You should play however works well for you. Your idea is a version of the A-B-C concept.

The only way to learn to play effectively is to try and at least by doing what you are suggesting it is an attempt to learn an effective way to play....which is basically the point of the contest.

Andy,

How often do the back up tickets win compared to the main tickets? Is it worth it to play back up tickets?


P.s.- i do not know much about pick 6 betting.

A champion for the people.

This issue has been a pet peeve of mine for quite some time (now, if we could only get Tampa to not take them off the turf in the middle of the P4 sequence, we'll really be getting somewhere).

Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Most of the time all tickets lose.

I have hit two Pick-6s with back-ups. They win.....and are really just part of the entire play. The idea is to give yourself a chance to win if you are very right in five ( or even four ) legs.

Andy, does this mean you are not a fan of rolling pick 3's?

No, I am a big fan of them, and one major reason is it allows you to find the sequences that work for you.

Okay, that number helps regarding establishing number of backups to construct.

I don't play P6, but like to play with ticket construction and see how I would have done (not well).

I end up thinking, "I'm fairly solid with this, but I think I"ll make one C backup singling that 15-1 with my A's just in case - but better include those 2 B's" - and then I look at my ticket construction grid, and I've got 15 tickets going before I know it ....

It's most difficult balancing the funds invested related to the risk of return - my tendency is to say, "what the hell, it's too confusing", and go back to combining everything onto less tickets. Then you lose the financial advantage of spreading most investment over likely, not less likely, horses.

Time to re-read Christs' book .... :D

what did you mean that there are too many multi race bets? Im confused.....as usual.

good lord, I've been going through these races for two days now. its almost comical the variety of unknowns that are thrown at you. its like any horses hanging around the barn are entered. looks like some came out of retirement for this.

Maybe some of these carryovers shouldn't be played, no matter how tempting ... Isn't the point to attack it when you do have a strong opinion in 4-5 races?

There are too many multi race bets to have every race placed in a non-blind spot.

In other words, in NY you have two Pick-4s, one starting in the second race and one in the 6th, and a Pick-6 starting in the 4th. Well, obviously the second is a perfect place for a maiden race laden with first time starters ( these are pretty much the races we are talking about and this issue is specifically important during Saratoga where there are quite often two or even three of these races in a day ). However, after that it becomes problematic. Yes, if you have another the best place is the 4th race, as that begins the Pick-6. This is lousy for the early Pick-4 but there have to be compromises. The next best place is the 6th race as that is out of the first Pick-4 but begins the final Pick-4. This is lousy for the Pick-6 but once again it becomes a lesser of two evils. However, I prefer the 4th over the 6th if we have two races ( assuming we use the 2nd race for the other one ). The worst spots ( assuming a nine race card like we are discussing ) are the 5th race, as it is blind in both the early Pick-4 and Pick-6, and the 9th race as it is blind in both the Pick-6 and final Pick-4. Plus, the 9th race is a high handle race, and races laden with firsters generally attract lower handles. The two remaining spots are the 7th and 8th race, and the 8th is the feature so it won't come up and the 7th is less bad than the 5th because there is a 6-7 double so one could use that pool to see what firsters are taking action.

OK?