Hard Spun & Belmont Distance
 

Anyone think he has a chance to play bridesmaid again, even with the jockey change?

I say he runs 4th at best!

I'm going to use Tiago/Rags to Riches on top of my exacta. If Rags to Riches doesn't run, I'll use I'mawildandcrazyguy.

On the bottom I'll use Tiago/Rags/Curlin/I'mawild/Slew's Tizzy

its your money and you can waste it however you would like, but I would reconsider throwing curlin out of the top position.

Typically I like to know who is actually going to be in a race before I start predicting who will finish where.

I agree. Just looking preliminarily at the field, trying to beat Curlin could be an exercise in futility. I had a feeling that the "wiseguy" idea this year was going to be to play up the Derby late also-rans. Since last year's Belmont was won by a Derby late also-ran that seems like everyone's favorite angle for this year's running. Difference being that with Hard Spun and Curlin in this year's field there is real talent. Last year's field may have been long on horses, but it was short on talent.

All in all, it's going to take a career effort from Imawildandcrazyguy or Tiago to win the Belmont while Curlin could potentially regress and still win.

NT

radical idea.

Nothing wrong with taking a look at the projected field and starting to do a little work. We know there will be 7 definites and I'm guessing Rags to Riches, so there's your field of eight.

NT

I am more excited for the Manhattan than I am for the Belmont.

Hard Spun wont win but give him 90% chance to hit the board.

As long as Gomez knows that the race is 1 1/2 miles and that Digger LOL will have no chance to hold up speed the whole way.


The bigger question is will the 9/5 favorite Curlin be able to run the distance!!!!

1 3/16 was a good distance and at 1 1/8 he looked terrible the last few yards
Plus the regression thing does not help either

I'm suspect of Curlin's ability to get 12F

So am I.

Just don' t bet like you are.

I won't be spending any money this weekend. (Maybe a small win bet on Hard Spun, but that's about it.) I'm too broke to lose any money...

I'm looking forward to seeing Hard Spun in the winner's circle.

Keep dreaming then...

Maybe you can share with me some tips on handling things post race? Seems like you've got it down to a science by now being a "drifty" fan. :D

Hard Spun will be near the front, Digger or no Digger, and fade slowly towards the end.

Mike Smith FTW!

LOL Buffy... and Slew's Tizzy has a much better shot? Come on... :D

Didn't say he (Drifty) was going to win did I? Just that I hoped and was rooting for Drifty. Head said Boboman, although look where that got me.

Honestly though, I don't think Hard Spun is going to win this one. Curlin either for that matter. Just my original thoughts. Once the PPs are up I will do my homework some more. Not writing anything in pen yet. :)

Yes. He is better rested with four weeks off since his last race. I may be wrong and I will admit it if he doesn't run well, but right now I am thinking he is going to run a big race. He is ready to take on the big boys, whether or not he can handle them is what I am anxiously awaiting.

Under the assumption that Rags isn't going...it's either Hard Spun or Curlin. None of the other "contenders" on the list have proven they can beat these two.

Because I don't think some of the other "contenders" have faced them.

Why do you say Rags has a shot? She hasn't faced them before? Has she even faced boys before?

I don't like him at a mile and a half. This is no 'normal' race...

Pedigree says so.

No, but once again, her pedigree says so and talent wise, she's got just as much there. (IMO.)

She's shown more ability than any of the other contenders. I think she could easily run top 3, even have a shot at winning. She's improved off of every race.

I am liking

WildCrazyGuy right now!! Hopefully 10/1??

I liked her in the Oaks, but I can't remember what her PPs looked like. So I won't comment on that as my brain is fried from the heat today. I just don't think she has a shot at winning. Hitting the board? Maybe.

Like I said these are just my original thoughts on this race. Once it shapes up I will more than likely change my opinions. I am fickle that way. :)

Although, Tizzy is probably going to be my pick.

You don't think a Tiznow colt can get a mile and a half? Shame on you! Hee hee. Just teasing.

His mama is a great granddaughter of a triple crown winner ya know.

The early DRF PPs are up. Rags to Riches is in there if you want to check her out. http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2007/pps/pps.html

hard spun is bred for 12f...of course his running style may or may not be conducive to the distance, but i'd put his chances up there ahead of much of the field.

the top three in the derby finished in the top three in the preakness. since one of them isn't going saturday, let's go with the fourth in the derby....

I do know :p and actually really like his pedigree because of the presence of Crozier in the 5th generation, BUT don't like him at a mile and a half.

Distance will be only be problem for Curlin, Digger, CQ(if he goes) and maybe Time Squared


The rest of them should have no problem getting the distance at all

None of them will have a problem getting the distance... it's just a matter of how long it will take them to hit the finish line. :D

I read Tberg was looking to run in the 6f race on the undercard.


Maybe Jaime loses her mind again and we see him try to get 1 1/2 miles:eek:

To quote btw.....where is his fast race?
I think he will be overbet because he came wide at CD and looked like he was gaining a ton of ground, when in fact he simply passed a bunch of tired horses. That race disguises the fact that in both the La Derby, and the Fl Derby he made up no ground whatsoever despite the fact that they went a half in :46.2 in front of him in both races. I don't think he has much of a chance. He doesn't have a great 12f pedigree and doesn't seem to have much of anything going for him really.
The filly seems like the most likely winner to me at this point, but again, without knowing the exact composition of the field, it is difficult to say for sure.

Why do you think that distance will be a problem for Time Squared? By FuPeg and out of an AP Indy mare seems good to me.
Now, running fast will certainly be a problem for Time Squared (because he is a slow horse) but the distance shouldn't be.

Was going to post the same thing until I continued scrolling to the bottom of the page. . .

Why?

Was it because of the way he got his last 1/8th in 11 and change in the Arkansas Derby? Or was it because of how empty he seemed through the late stages of the Preakness....after having his ears ridden off for most of the race?

I'm pretty sure you said it yourself (maybe it was someone else)- Curlin came to Assmussen as a front-runner with a miler's pedigree and has become some what of a closer type who has been able to get added distance. . . At what point (or distance) will this catch up with him? I'm not saying he's not the most talented horse in this field, but at the supposedly obselete distance of the Belmont he may be compromised while other horses should/could enjoy the added ground. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking because I don't bet 4/5 shots. . .

I did say that. You're correct.

However, I have no doubts he can see out 12 furlongs against the field he will face on Saturday....and I say that based on his recent form....which trumps pedigree.

He's an example of a horse who has outrun his pedigree...and while the fact that Asmussen has undertrained him worked against Curlin's best chances in the KY Derby and Preakness....it will actually play to his advantage in this race.