Mayan King ... The HOTY March Begins
 

Mayan King's inevitable march to the 2006 Horse-Of-The-Year Eclipse Award ... takes its first serious step on Saturday ... as New York invades Iowa for the 9f G2 Cornhusker "Handicap."

Gary Contessa decided not to stay home for the 10f Suburban ... which may have been a mistake given how soft the field for that race is ... but instead packed a bag full of sfogliatelle ... and headed west.

I don't want to recommend that you sell your house ... your car ... your furniture ... your dog ... and your gun ... and bet the proceeds on Mayan King ... because that'd only drive down his odds.

But ... mark-ye-well what you've read here.

He left NY because Rathor smoked him in his last race. You can't lose allowance races and be HOY.

After thinking about it, HOY will go to Bernardini, Barbaro, Lava Man or Flower Alley. Can't see anyone else with a shot.

Wonder how much tractors go for now a days??

You are gonna have some hillbilles putting down there farms on him!! Hope he wins or might not make it out of the state

Does not help that the field looks terrible even though there are 14 horses in it

Good Luck to Mayan King on that quest because he'll need it.....unless he grows quite a bit of talent in the next few months, he'll never be good enough to be a HOTY type....

Bold, you're nothing if not consistant. ;)

Shouldn't you be getting ready for your flight, Bold?
http://www.budapesttimes.hu/index.php?art=1851

ML 15/1!! Looks like IRS race

Been there ... done that.

Mrs. Brooklynite and I were in Hungary in September 2004 in conjunction with a spectacularly successful secret mission. Wonderful place ... Budapest, Lake Balaton, Sopran, Tokay, Dunabogdany ... yeah, really nice.

Does Mayan King even hit the board is a better question?

This isn't exactly a top-class field and Mayan King is a talented, improving colt. I see no reason why he couldn't win.........not saying he will, but he is definitely a contender.

Hey Bold Brooklynite. I saw earlier your predictions. How sure are you of this race? I see on the morning line that Mayan King is the 10 choice at 15-1 and is only carrying 112, pretty much the light weight. If he is as good as you say, this would appear to be stealing money. This is an ok field but certainly not a great one. Should we go for the gusto and bet a lot of money to win on Mayan King?

Ooops I didn't see this thread and I started a new one about this race which is about......2 more threads than this race deserves.
Anyway I like the #1 horse Gouldings Green.

Bold, I've got a deal for you. I'll put $2 on this horse. If he wins, I'll add a signature line that says I worship you. If he doesn't, you add a line where you say you worship me. Deal?? :D

There are always the unknown factors of a different track ... shipping ... first stakes race of the year ... etc. etc. etc. ... but ...

... if this race were run at Belmont ... I guarantee you he'd win it.

Take that for what it's worth.

You express this as if my being worshipped were some sort of novelty ... but ...

... I've been so widely worshipped for such a long time ... that one worshipper more or less amounts to nothing more than chump change.

I've never claimed to be a handicapper ... but I know that Mayan King has far more quality than any horse in this field ... and he seems to be coming to peak form.

Whether or not this translates into a victory ... after being shipped with Contessa's sfogliatelle all the way to god-knows-where Iowa ... I really can't tell.

So do we have a bet, or no, Mr. Dance Around the Question?

Except that he is a front-running type in a race with several other front-running types. And he is breaking from the 12 hole - gonna he hung out 4,5 wide in the first turn. There are G2 and G3 winners in here, and horses who have placed in such races. What is Mayan King's stakes experience? Finishing far back in the Lane's End. He may be a talented horse, or merely an unexposed horse. After all, his win last out was a n3x; who'd he beat? Noble Causeway? Who was beaten the same distance by Alumni Hall the time before? And I don't think AH is a likely winner.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree. It's not fair, IMO, to count the Lane's End against him; MK got hurt in that race and it was a long time ago. I never said he was a lock to win, but I definitely think he's a contender. We'll know soon enough.

Doesnt have a chance in hell

I'm amazed that supposedly sophisticated racing fans are unable to properly interpret Mayan King's past performances. So please allow me to 'splain things to you.

1. He didn't race as a 2YO because of minor physical setbacks.

2. When he finally came out as a 3YO ... he won his first two times out.

3. Contessa ... always high on this horse ... put him on the Triple Crown trail ... but after shipping to Kentucky for his first stakes try ... he shattered a bone in his hind leg ... and had to sit out for 11 months.

4. Coming back with a steel bolt in his leg ... he won first time out.

5. Second start off the long layoff ... he ran into a very good horse in Rathor ... and put on a good show even though a one-turn 8f is short of his best distance of 10f.

6. Third start off the layoff ... he runs a mile on Friday just as fast as Silver Train runs the Met Mile on Saturday ... and he still had another 1/16 to go. He was so sharp that he ran on the front end ... after stalking in his previous three wins. He has now won four of the five races which he finished on four legs.

7. So Contessa takes the trouble to ship him ... plus Keith Partridge and a dufflebag full of biscotte ... all the way to Iowa ... to catch a softer field than the Suburban ... which may be a mistake ... but Belmont's leading trainer doesn't ship 1,000 miles just to see how corn grows.

There are a million ways that the best horse can lose a race ... especially when shipping and coming back from a serious injury ... but Mayan King is the clear quality in this race ... and if he runs back to his last win at Belmont ... he crushes this field.

But... you haven't answered my question! Will you...or won't you? Or...are you just too chicken to make a deal with...a woman?

hhhhmmmmmm, about 5 cents, tops.

I understand your point BoldBrook, but I look at it like this. Siphon City (pp3), Master Command (pp9), Courthouse (pp10), and Alumni Hall (pp11) do their best running from on or just off the lead. That means, BEST CASE SCENARIO, he is three wide around the first turn but more likely four wide. How many horses win when they are four wide around the first turn in a 9f race? Practically none. And lets say that he is able to weather the frontrunners and finds himself alone atop the lane...then he has to hold off Gouldings Green, Congrats, Real Dandy and Good Reward who will be moving late. He's not receiving enough weight - no more than 5lbs from anyone to make a huge difference and I respect your backing of this horse but his race is likely over before the gate opens.

MAYAN KING actually has a big chance in this race and 15-1 ML is just ridiculous....I think he definately factors after getting in lite and appearing to be sitting on a big race on the stretch to around two-turns...GOULDINGS GREEN has a lot of quality and fits in any Gr. II in the country...if he can get clear running from the rail he will factor....the only other horse I personally think can win is GOOD REWARD on the outside...he has a ton of backclass and is actually bred to be better on dirt than on turf - where he's made his nut....I think he runs big in here, but i still find myself turning to Mayan King when it comes down to value...Also, if Alumni Hall takes to Palm Meadows than he can certainly factor here...he is a weird horse that only runs big on certain tracks but there is nothing that says he won't take a liking to that oval...beware..

(1) Mayan King
(2) Gouldings Green
(3) Good Reward
(4) Alumni Hall

Mr. Mahgninnuc,

Call me dyslectic, but I see it:
1: Alumni Hall
2: Good Reward
3: Goulding Green
4: Mayan King

You guys really know how to hype a horse with the King. With all that you say he surely has not been tested against these tough of horses, is shipping accross the world, and has a pace challenge.

Still opinions are like a**holes, everyone has one.

How did anyone get the impression that Mayan King is a frontrunner?

He's not at all a sprinter or even a miler ... he's a stalking classic distance horse who is just crying out for two turns and 10f ... though this race is only 9f.

He ran on the front end in his last start because he's rounding into peak form and was very sharp in a field which lacked real speed. Granted Post 12 is not a good place to start from ... but there's nearly 3/16 from the starting gate to the turn ... and Mike Luzzi didn't just fall off a turnip truck ... so I wouldn't be too worried about going eight-wide.

Any talk about HOY has gotta have Surf Cat in the mix. The only thing holding this horse back is not shipping out of Calif.

Tell that to ... Whirlaway, Armed, Capot, Counterpoint, One Count, Kelso, Roman Brother, Arts And Letters, Personality, Secretariat, Conquistador Cielo, and Charismatic ...

... all of whom lost allowance races ... or even maiden races ... during their Horse-Of-The-Year campaigns.

Still ignoring me, eh, Bold??

I just saw the past performances for this race ...

... and Mayan King has the highest Beyer rating ... tied with Master Command ... so ...

... where is all this skepticism coming from?

Also ... I didn't realize that Prairie Meadows racing is at night. Yikes! It'll be midnight in New York by the time this race is run. Shipping ... post 12 ...screws in the ankle ... no decent Italian food ... and now a midnight post time ... Mayan King will have to be outstanding to overcome all this ...

... but fortunately ... he is.

Yeah but can he beat Three Hour Nap?

BB,

I should have let Contessa know... "Sam and Gabe's".. A very good Italian Steakhouse in Des Moines. Kind of a Gene and Georgetti's (Chicago)..

You've likely not been to Des Moines.. You'd be very surprised. It's a pretty sophisticated town.. A small version of Kansas City basically.

Does the fact that Rathor and Noble Causeway were totally buried in the Suburban make any difference to your analysis of this race?

I could swear Bold is ignorning me.............

Were you being sarcastic? Being a small version of Kansas City does not make you a sophisticated town. Kansas City is about as sophisticated as a 3-legged goat.

Rathor sure didn't flatter Mayan King in the Suburban, buit this is an easier group and I'm still going to go with Mayan King at 10-1 or better...he is the value here....Rathor didn't enjoy a good trip either....what the hell was he doing towards the rear in a race with a slow pace...weird....he certainly wasn't ready for a top effort today if he was that disinterested early on in the race.....I went with Dutrow and he just grinded along...Invasor was the best, hands down...

You can't know Kansas City that well to say that Mira.. I lived in Kansas City for 2 years.. Worked on and off in Chicago since 1983.. I'll give you Chicago over KC downtown, etc.. But beyond the "city", I'll take KC (The Plaza, et al) and its' 'livableness' over "Chicagoland" any time... And Des Moines is a spotlessly clean, friendly, wealthy small city...

Bold Brooklyn
 

Bold:

Have placed a small win and place bet.....
How do you get your info?
Are you privy to Gary Contessa and his stable as far as info?
Or, are you just handicapping the race like everyone else?

Best of Luck,

PSH

I travelled frequently to Nevada, Iowa ... just outside Ames ... in the early 1970's.

They were in-and-out business trips ... buzzing through the Des Moines airport many times ... but never saw the town.

I advised Gary to pack his own pasta and biscotti ... and I wouldn't be surprised if he did!

After seeing today's Suburban ... I think Gary made a mistake by not staying home. But the ladies in Iowa are probably thrilled to have Keith Partridge visit them.

No ... because neither is a 10f horse.

Both would have been competitive at 8f ... possibly with Rathor defeating Invasor ... but 10f is way beyond their scopes.

On the other hand ... Mayan King is a true classic distance horse ... and when he's had a couple of graded-stakes under his belt ... and stays sound d.v. ... I think he can handle Invasor at 10f.