EPSOM DERBY: Authorized & Dettori Score...
 

19 left at the 5 day stage headed by odds on Authorised who could be the first odds on shot to contest the derby since Entrepreneur failed to stay in 1997.. Pletcher had 5 in Kentucky but O'Brien could have as many as 8 at Epsom.. 8...Ive liked Admiralofthefleet since he won last September but he wouldnt want it soft and he has stamina doubts..

1 12 Acapulco 28 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 118 111
2 131-71 Admiralofthefleet 22 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 131 131
3 31-51 Anton Chekhov 25 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 122 120
4 32-1 Aqaleem 21 M P Tregoning 33 3 9-0 112 126 92
5 7-12 Arabian Gulf 23 Sir Michael Stoute 57 3 9-0 106 120 109
6 021-1 Archipenko 20 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 128 96
7 31-1 Authorized 16 P W Chapple-Hyam 40 3 9-0 L Dettori 116 135 134
8 2214-5 Eagle Mountain 28 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 131 133
9 1-32 Eastern Anthem 9 Saeed Bin Suroor 100 3 9-0 101 117 109
10 512-23 Kid Mambo 21 T G Mills — 3 9-0 Joe Fanning 104 120 111
11 42 Leander 27 B R Johnson 100 3 9-0 89 51
12 211 Lucarno 7 J H M Gosden 71 3 9-0 92 127 105
13 911 Mahler 27 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 117 108
14 010-17 Petara Bay 35 T G Mills — 3 9-0 Dane O´Neill 105 122 104
15 4127-1 Regime 35 M L W Bell 38 3 9-0 Martin Dwyer 110 125 108
16 2-121 Salford Mill 28 D R C Elsworth 86 3 9-0 Ted Durcan 105 122 113
17 212-11 Soldier Of Fortune 23 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 130 128
18 5113-8 Strategic Prince 28 P F I Cole 38 3 9-0 Eddie Ahern 117 131 131
19 73-502 Yellowstone 20 A P O´Brien 50 3 9-0 126 122

Aqaleem for me........... would love to see Mahler win, but looking on betfair he looks unlikely to run.

Anything but Authorized and i will be happy

Wow, thought I'd already replied to this....

Anyways, AUTHORIZED!!

Katy

Authorized deserves to be odds-on, looks a class above the rest to me.

arabian gulf.

I'm still narrowing it down but i love Yellowstone, Eagle Mountain and Chekov.

AOB has it covered but I hope Eastern Anthem does well too.

archipenko

No horse deserves to be odds on for the Derby, not in my opinion, anyway.

Entrepreneur was odds on for the derby and he got beat, i think Tenby was odds on too!

His odds are to do with hype, not to do with form. Aqaleem has already finished in front of Authorized as a 2yo.

You can't choose Coolmore and Darley horses....... they call that no mans land :D

I can and i will!

There's no law saying it's either / or.... love them both so sue me.

Morty...

You need to behave.

Great post Snowy...may I call you Snowy?

r u going Thebby on me....ma'am?





Never assume Chapter One is a reflection of things to come.

Oh Genesis was pretty good,too.

Now look at the mess we have.







You have hurt my feelings.

I want my rib back.

What have i missed??????

Let's just all play nice or this thread goes bye bye and that wouldn't be fair.

DROP IT.

YOU have a dart gun!!!!???










Are you kidding me!?









I knew something fishy was going on here.













At least DebODeb likes me.

Back on topic........

From the RP..... by Tom Peacock

MARCUS TREGONING has maintained the same tradition as with last year's Vodafone Derby winner Sir Percy by taking Aqaleem for a spin at Lingfield in preparation for the big race.

A combination of bad weather in Lambourn and a little bit of fine tuning saw Tregoning bring his colt to theSurrey track on Tuesday - four days ahead of his assignment a few miles away at Epsom.

Aqaleem, who is as low as 8-1 second favourite for the Classic behind Authorized, has been to Lingfield before.

The son of Sinndar entered the Derby reckoning after an impressive victory in the Group 3 trial race a fortnight ago and was again partnered by Richard Hills in his exercise.

"Richard met me at Lingfield this morning and we worked Aqaleem over a mile," explained Tregoning.

"Richard was very satisfied and the thinking behind it was really that I wanted to see him come down a hill yet again.

"We have had a lot of rain at home and the gallops are so soft they are really unsuitable to work him on.

"We worked him on the Polytrack andit all went terribly well. It is exactly what we did with Sir Percy a year ago.

"Aqaleem is very fit and that was his last proper piece of work.

"We will just keep him cantering until the big race."


************************************************** *

For what it's worth, i think the Derby winner will either have a name that begins with "A" or is trained by someone who's name begins with "A" :D

I admit i've never seen him (... love the name).

Is there a replay anywhere? Thanks.

he doesnt strike me as the Derby winner but being by the hugely underated sire Sinndar, I wouldnt mind see him win.

Your wish is my command:

http://play.www.atr.servecast.net/pp..._05_12_03_1515

He races in the same silks as your boy Maraahel

Oh cool, thanks.

I just think he has plenty in his favour. He shouldn't have any ground problems, whatever the ground is come Derby day and with that experience of winning around Lingfield when winning the Derby will help him a great deal with coping with Epsom.

Marcus seems very confident about him, and from a trainer that doesn't go overboard with his runners, that is interesting. He is far more confident than he was with Sir Percy, and if anything, this years race looks even weaker. Do you think we are starting to see the results of breeding for speed?

theres certainly alot of horses that wont stay or are doubtful to stay the trip. I wouldnt be too knowledgeable about breeding.. I did fancy Archipenko but seeing that he is a late May foal (May 30th) surely, thats not a good sign.

Well on pedigree this is what i would think:
Acapulco - Strong Stayer
Admiralofthefleet - non stayer
Anton Chekhov - Strong stayer
Aqaleem - Likely stayer
Arabian Gulf - Likely stayer
Archipenko - Doubtful stayer
Authorized - Likely stayer
Eagle Mountain - Should stay, but not certain
Eastern Anthem - Should stay
Kid Mambo - Non Stayer
Leander - Likely stayer
Lucarno - Should stay (but not certain about this one)
Mahler - Strong Stayer
Petara Bay - Doubtful stayer
Regime - Strong Stayer
Salford Mill - Doubtful Stayer
Soldier Of Fortune - Strong Stayer
Strategic Prince - Should stay
Yellowstone - Non Stayer

This is through dosage index of both the sire and dam sire.

For what it's worth, i don't think it matters about the foaling time. I will have a look at the stats though.

Afraid to say it doesn't look Admiralofthefleet will make the gig, he is 50's on Betfair now

Foaling months of previous 10 Derby winners:

1996; Shaamit (February)
1997; Benny The Dip (January)
1998; High Rise (May)
1999; Oath (April)
2000; Sinndar (february)
2001; Galileo (march (almost april))
2002; High Chaparral (March)
2003; Kris Kin (March)
2004; North Light (March)
2005; Motivator (February)
2006; Sir Percy (January)

Maybe you're right, Brockguy. I never imagined it would matter much but looking at this, maybe it does.

March seems to be the best month for foaling a derby winner........ so i guess i won't be winning the Derby.

Thanks for that list.. Immediately I thought Eagle Mountain wont stay (he reminds me alot of Oratorio). his dam has produced some stayers like Sulk but how many Rocks will stay 12f?? That Gosden horse is certainly interesting to say the least...

Regarding foaling date, I know the Racingpost had a write up about it about the foaling dates of horses in the Guineas.. Im sure it is less relevant for the Derby but in the back of my mind, Ill be thinking that Archipenko has just really turned 3 by Derby time..

March foaled horses in this years derby, are:

Aqaleem :)

and

Salford Mill

Yeah, i'm not sure about Eagle Mountain, either but the dosage stuff says he might just be able to.

I agree with you though, i think he will be this years Oratorio, do we get on for the Eclipse now?

Slightly off topic, but did you see the full sister to Giant's Causeway at the weekend? How good did she look finishing 2nd in a hot listed race over five first time out when it looked like she will be tailed off at half way!

Did we see the 1000 guineas winner of next year? I'm more than hopeful

she was impressive enough, both the winner (who is for sale) and her looked very good and the time was 58 and change so thats very good for the Curragh. It was also good considering none of O'Brien's other juveniles looked decent...

If Admiral doesnt go, Im struggling to find a horse I like that'll beat Authorized....

At the moment i'm struggling to find a horse that WON'T beat Authorized :D

Seriously, i don't fancy him. The form of his RP Trophy took another huge knock this evening with Charlie Farnsbarns getting beaten in a weak race at odds of 2/5

yeah saw that.. it was an awful bet.. the Sinndar one looked very very workmanlike when winning the Lingfield race (takes after his dad!) but does anyone decent win the lingfield trial anymore?? some of the previous winners werent much..

if its soft ground, I might be interested in Soldier Of Fortune.. His form does look strong, esp if Passage walks in the Oaks..

The Lingfield Derby trail isn't a great race anymore, i agree...... but i never understand why because if you run well there, you can almost be sure the horse will handle Epsom. I wonder if people don't run the fancied ones there because if they don't handle Lingfield, it will mean the Derby dream is over before it has even begun........... maybe?

What i liked about the performance was that it was off the back of the Tregoning yard being 'shut down' after many of the horses were sick. He was entitled to need that run much more than most and he did it well under those circumstances. I wouldn't read much into Hearthstead Maison getting beaten next time, Lucarno is a very nice horse and the drop back in trip/slow gallop really wouldn't have helped the Mark Johnston horse.

you seem confident he'll run a decent race.. do you think Lucarno will run. I just caught his race last week. He was impressive but the Derby comes a few days too soon I think..

The news is that he will run, i don't think a race so soon will bother him, all that race was on Saturday was an exagerated piece of work for him. I was out on saturday night with a few mates and one of them is 'well in' at the Gosden yard and although he didn't know if he would run back then, what he did know is this Lucarno is better than Raincoat and that was only four lengths behind Authorized. I'm not sure he will stay to be honest, or handle soft ground, being by Dynaformer, but one thing is for sure, he is a very nice horse in the making and i know some shrewdies that think he might make into a Breeder's Cup classic prospect maybe next year!!

As each day passes i get more confident about Aqaleem, everyone else is worried about the ground and whether their Derby hope will stay, whereas i'm quite relaxed as i think this lad will go on any ground, he has prived himself on quicker ground, and his pedigree suggests he will be just as at home on soft. I also know he will handle Epsom. My only concern is if he is quick enough/has a turn of foot, so in a way i hope it does stay on the soft side, if that does turn out to be an issue with him.

no withdrawls so 19 set for the Derby.. O'Brien still has 8 in. One could go on and on discussing the merits of having 8 in, but it looks to me as if they all deserve a spot.. it'll be interesting to see how things set up during the race. I know Murtagh always likes to be handy or up front in the Derby, but I cant see Eagle Mountain staying..

No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe
1 (5) 12 Acapulco (IRE) 28 3 9-0 A P O'Brien F M Berry
2 (15) 7131-71 Admiralofthefleet (USA) 22 3 9-0 A P O'Brien J A Heffernan 115
3 (4) 31-51 Anton Chekhov 25 3 9-0 A P O'Brien D P McDonogh 108
4 (2) 32-1 Aqaleem 21 3 9-0 M P Tregoning R Hills 112
5 (1) 7-12 Arabian Gulf 23 3 9-0 Sir Michael Stoute R Hughes 106
6 (10) 021-1 Archipenko (USA) 20 3 9-0 A P O'Brien M J Kinane 112
7 (14) 31-1 Authorized (IRE) 16 3 9-0 P W Chapple-Hyam L Dettori 116
8 (8) 12214-5 Eagle Mountain 28 3 9-0 A P O'Brien J Murtagh 116
9 (13) 1-32 Eastern Anthem (IRE) 9 3 9-0 Saeed bin Suroor K McEvoy 101
10 (19) 4512-23 Kid Mambo (USA) 21 3 9-0 T G Mills J Fanning 104
11 (3) 42 Leander 27 3 9-0 B R Johnson M Gallagher
12 (17) 211 Lucarno (USA) 7 3 9-0 J H M Gosden S Drowne 113
13 (6) 911 Mahler 27 3 9-0 A P O'Brien P J Smullen
14 (12) 010-17 Petara Bay (IRE) 35 3 9-0 T G Mills Dane O'Neill 105
15 (7) 4127-1 Regime (IRE) 35 3 9-0 M L W Bell Martin Dwyer 110
16 (11) 2-121 Salford Mill (IRE) 28 3 9-0 D R C Elsworth T E Durcan 105
17 (9) 212-11 Soldier of Fortune (IRE) 23 3 9-0 A P O'Brien W M Lordan 111
18 (18) 15113-8 Strategic Prince 28 3 9-0 P F I Cole E Ahern 117
19 (16) 173-502 Yellowstone (IRE) 20 3 9-0 A P O'Brien C O'Donoghue 11

He's been ruled out. Sorry.

http://www.skysports.com/skysports/a...268558,00.html

I'm not watching this race so a visual would be appreciated.

Thanks.

Awwwww, i know how you feel though :(

Are you going to watch the coronation? it's off in about 15mins

I really want to see that one but that's right when i'll be outta here, damnit.

I'll read all about Maraahel winning a bit later.

COME HOME SAFE EVERYONE PLEASE.

Two races i don't know if i ever want to watch again and one is the Derby.

Well, from that tone..... and as i'm a doctor, i say you are too sick to go into work today.

stay home and watch the racing.

I love your confidence

I'm with you, Danzig. Yet again. Impressed by his run in Ireland.

Oops, just had a look at his pedigree. Yikes. Inbred to Nureyev and full sister Special, pretty closely, too. Lots of miler-types, including his mum (at least she's a good class SW) and big sister Limit. Full brother broke his maiden at 10f in Ireland (g/f), best he ever did. 12f could be a stretch, especially on softish ground. He'll need it to dry up a bit before tomorrow.