Hollywood Friday Night Pick Six (Carryovah)
 

Ok i'm ready to talk about the card. Hope the rest of you are as well.

First off...

Third race-

Anyone think Double Trouble is vulnerable?

Bosset could give her all she can handle but her races so far in NA have been less than inspiring.

Pillow--use the search function.........

I guess you dont take your own advice....we are already talking about the carryover on another thread.

So what? It didn't have its own thread yet.

R3)
7-5 ML on Double Trouble is a pretty tough number to swallow. Also, Talamo hops off to ride for Mandella on the #4 Princess Ezra (who i don't like) i find it hard to believe Frankel requested Blanc for this mount, b/c this one is on the poly and i'll take Talamo on the cush over Blanc all day.

R6) Extremely tough 50K claimers; im stuck

-bt-

I did. There is no thread for 5/25. As to not mislead people who don't check the thursday thread for the friday thread, I figure it would be appropriate to have a thread for friday night's card.

Have a good day, sir.

i was just giving you a hard time. I really dont care how many threads there are.

BT and Pillow- I agree with you on race 3. Frankel is in a HUGE slump. Really hard to take this horse on a short price.

What do you guys think of the drop in class by Toms West in the 4th? That is a kind of the drop that I dont like to see by the connections. Seems like the gave up on the horse.

Well he was running for Maiden 32000 in the winter so it's really not that significant of a drop considering.

I don't like him one bit, however. Will probably be overbet due to Talamo.

I'm leaning toward leaving Gary John off the ticket as well. I'm liking Soul Work and Gotta Getcha.

Gary John was going to be one of my potential singles. He moves up in class just a tad but his last race was very impressive. Plus this group doesnt look that strong. But I agree with you on Gotta Getcha. I am willing to forgive her last race and I think she will run more like she did when she broke her maiden.

I haven't looked at the replays yet but i'm seeing a pattern off the pp's of Gary John giving in a little when he doesn't get the lead. I'm expecting Soul Work and Gotta Getcha to put some pressure on the favorite.

Very good points.

This 5th race is impossible


Race 3
2,3
Race 4
4,5
Race 5
????
Race 6
1,7,8
Race 7
4
Race 8
4,5,10

I've stil got Hemet Humor, Chocolate Lava, Hennessy Rose, Steelin' and Stop The Humor as possibles in the 5th. I would like to get it down to 3 so I can keep the ticket halfway reasonable. Hoping for at least one scratch out of these.

both the 5th and 6th are tough, you wanna go deep but there is not many or any singles on this card

5th)
Steelin'
Stop The Humor
Hennessy Rose
Likely A Star
Chocolate Lava / Kula Girl

I plan on going at least 4 deep in this race. I liked Hemet Humor, has had nothing but solid works since being put on the shelf last summer but you gotta draw a line in the sand or else your ticket will get out of control

-bt-

I think the single is in the last leg, the 4. Drops from a much much tougher spot with a couple maintenance works, keeps Flores, and is just 4-5 lengths faster than any of these.

If I can find one more single, I'm playing this thing.

Yep....I am stuck on him, only others I am concerned about are the 2 and 5. 5 on the trainer change and the 2 ran well last out, obviously has health issues.

In the 6th I love Chocolate Lava. The 3rd and 4th are the ones that are causing me all sorts of problems

I agree 100%. And looking at this pick 6 sequence, I feel more confortable with a single in the last leg than any other leg. If I am alive going into the last leg then I can live with the 4.

The 2 is a bum. I remember this guy from last year @ Bel, any horse trained by Frankel that debuts at Philly and then gets beat 8 lengths by freakin' Johnny Spreadsheet is destined for Mountaineer 10k MCL's. In the SA race they were blazing up front and he got a perfect setup to clunk up, got beat by a horse who was 5-6 wide on the turn.

Becerra isn't too good off the layoffs, but of course Talamo scares the sh!t out of me.

Has she raced since the Magnificience maiden? She went up against some tough cookies last two. Gotta like her here.

I think Nakatani can get the hat trick (5,6,7).

I agree with Phil that the 4 will be tough in the finale BUT Son Montuno scares the sh.it out of me. Especially when you consider Lobo's ROI at the meet.

All right I am half done so far....

Race 3 1,2,3

Race 4 2,3,4

Race 5 5,6,8,9

Race 6 1,5,7

Race 7 1,4

Race 8 4,10

Will split into 3 tickets in ABC form but this is this is the first cut.

Potential singles.

Race 3 #3 Double trouble

Race 4 #3 Gary John

Race 5 #6 Chocalate Lava

Race 6 #7 Brooker

Race 7 No single

Race 8 #4 Social Satire

I am interested in what the real 'cappers here have to offer on races 6,7 as those are the most competitive.

Race 5 has 4-5 contenders and land mines in several of the firsters but that is always the case with MSW as well turf sprints, together the form is very difficult to forcast, so you take your shots and hit your knees to pray no act of God appears to steal it away....

My take on tonight
 

Couple of things

1) I think the pool is going to be especially large today for only a 100k carryover, my guess is 1.3 or 1.5 million. Friday night tends to have alot of stupid money because we have nothing to do but unload on Hollywood, plus beer or other vices kick in and you start betting Bill Antongiogio.

2) The sequence is harder then it looks on paper, that first race can/will cause alot of problems, especially if Frankel's horse doesn't run well, he is the slowest in the race, yet 7/5 ML

3) I'll be playing tonight, a $600 ticket. I think this thing could pay, especially if you can beat the 4 in the last race, which I am going to mull over today. There won't be enough sharks in the pool yet so two bombs on a large ticket and you will have a shot at some serious cash

More to come on the card later

I agree on all points. Frankel's horse is a crazy 7/5 favorite.

I'll be back later tonight to post my ticket.

Some thoughts on R5:
1: works ok, trainer good on grass but poor FTS record, excluding
2: works average but sold for $85k as a 2YO in training, all speed, turf breeding mediocre but likely has speed and trainer going well; backup ticket
3: below average works, trainer poor with FTS, pass
4: 4/5 last year on this course, probably needed the race or didn't care for the cushiontrack, talamo on, using
5: working extremely well for seasonal debut, long layoff a big ?, best effort a route, o'neill going very poorly this meet, pass
6: has excellent :45 speed, battled magnficience then bombed on the cushiontrack, should find herself in a perfect spot turning for home, must use
7: working fantastic, trainer terrible with FTS but a stunning pedigree for this trip, also a must use
8: another who has shown quite a bit of ability thus far, probably should have made up more ground in the lane last out but note distance back to 3rd (8 1/4)
9: bombed on the cushion, two decent races at this trip but how many chances do you get? Pass
11: 500k syndicate purchase has shown little other than 1/4 mile speed, pace early? Pass
12: horrific post, good breeding for this trip, blinks go on, tough call, backup ticket if possible


I really like the 7's breeding for this event and works. If the trainer had ANY ability with firsters I'd make a balls single with her.

That horse was the fav first time out against the likes of Charm the Giant and other top turf horses. 7/5 is more then you are gonna get at post time. Now, I agree he is not the best single on the card but there really isnt a lot in this race. Maybe use the 1 also?

Love Lucky Vegas in the 4th, but have to use 3 in there. Tread lightly with Gary John.....that was a 4 horse field last time out and he is cutting back to 6f.

Thank you for pointing that out. I just relooked and she is a single. Horse was off for 7 months and while Frankel wins with layoff horses, they almost always improve 2nd off the shelf. I worry about how cold he has been but maybe this is lock city and he is looking for a picture.

I also do not like Gary John, 8 days after a monster number, no thank you. A horse I just found as a possible use is Via Rodeo in the last. Horse needed a strong closer and Blanc gets aboard, bullet last work also.

I'll be here later with my thoughts. Work is killing me, haven't even cracked the form yet. I also have a 3hr drive home ahead of me.

Luckily I have lots of time with the first post at 11pm Eastern.

Also, if I hit this bitch tonight, I am claiming a horse Saturday/Sunday at Arlington :)

She's thrown some races that are good enough to win this, but how many chances do you get? At 0-18 and 6 straight losses at this level I'm inclined to stand against.

Gary John scares me both ways. I CANNOT single this horse, yet I can't throw him out either because if he is able to pair the last race he destroys this group. I don't like Gotta Getcha at ALL, whose one win (and good performance) was a garden trip odds on at 5.5F. I guess Soul Work has the most upside of these as he's lightly raced but the last, against similar, doesn't inspire confidence.

I am sitting this pick 6 out. The card looks tough and there is going to be a $1mm dollar pick 6 on Monday. But good luck to those who are playing this tonight.

Play both, you won $4k last night..

UNLOAD MY FRIEND, UNLOAD

What's wrong with Fun Logic on the Cushion? Two starts, a win and a second to Cushion monster Cantabria. One can't assume that every turf horse will take to AW (Poly, Cushion, Tapeta, etc) or that every AW horse will take to turf. Frankel went through a spell at Saratoga a couple of years ago where he had numbers like this for a time - virus in the barn?

Fun Logic is, well, Logical......two times on the cushion were pretty good. I assume she is not the horse of Double Trouble but it is possible as she looks to get a good trip. I cant figure out why Blanc is up for Frankel, nor do I think Double Trouble is a true speed horse.....alot of x factors.

By far the toughest race to figure out is the MSW turf 6f event. Wow....could go obvious, but some of the firsters are interesting.

Root, I think that race is as easy as 6-7-8....I want to single the 6 but would rather toss those two in as precautionary, the 12 maybe, with the bottom side breeding

I think that I'll know exactly what I am doing with DT after I watch the replay. I want to see if he was a run away speed horse or just a horse that inheriated the lead because she was fresh. I think Blanc gets a perfect trip here off the 5, who is playable given his TG but trip wise, DT should get a perfect trip

It bothers me that Talamo jumped off Double Trouble. Wouldn't you think the kid would want future rides from the Frankel barn? Does Mandella have that much juice with this kid or did Joe see something he didn't like.......horse had nada in the tank the last quarter and albeit it was a stakes race the horse didn't seem to run like his foreign wins.

Why would Talamo take a mount from an inferior horse???

My guess is that the connections, probably owners, didnt like the way he was on the lead in that last race they opted to go elsewhere....I do not think it was Talamos call. He and Frankel were joined at the hip winning at a 50% clip for a while at the FG and at Santa Anita so it is rather strange.

Agree, but Talamo might not be making decisions, and could have some sort of agreement in that if you ride this horse, you get to ride so and so in the future. That alone is the one reason I want to use all

What's the consensus on the 7th? 4-Super Strut and 2-Running Free have the back class, but you have to go back over a year to find a win for either, and does either want the added distance? (Mulhall says that Running Free doesn't, which is a scary sign, while Dollase claims that Super Strut does.) Any chance that 5-Ring of Friendship gets an uncontested lead and wires the field to improve to 2 for 2 at a mile and a half?

Those are the only two I am using, 2 and 4