A Lesson Learned
 

In 2005, I incorrectly labeled Afleet Alex as being in need of a rest after the Kentucky Derby. He then went on to prove me wrong by winning the Preakness and Belmont.

This year, I said the same thing about Curlin, and we saw what he did.

I think I have been jaded (for lack of a better term) by the fragility of modern thoroughbreds during the last few years. By and large, horses of today who try to do what Curlin has done since February fail miserably. But instead of taking a step backward, Curlin made a huge jump forward. So I guess the lesson is that no matter how weak the breed becomes as a whole, really good horses can still overcome some of the obstacles that most horses can't.

I probably should have learned this after Afleet Alex won the Preakness, but sometimes it takes a few examples for me to change my thinking.

That Afleet Alex was a heck of a horse. Still feel bad about him not winning the Derby. I hated him when he was running too.

Just one of those that I didn't like.

I didn't like him, but I can't explain why.

We all like a lot more losers than winners and will never be right nearly as often as we are wrong. Doesn't matter. Only one thing does.....making money.

You sound like a bloodstock agent

I could never be that talented.

I find it disappointing that a lot of fans and pundits have bought into the "party line" of 21st century training that less (racing) is more.

Joe Drape in today's NY Times wrote, "It not only would be prudent to rest Street Sense, but it could be profitable to use the Travers as a springboard to race against older horses in September and, finally, the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic in October at Monmouth Park in New Jersey."

Oy!

The horse has only raced four times this year! So it's now "prudent" to put him on the shelf for another 2-3 months?

I can see why you might be"jaded" a bit by your thinking of the fragility of our modern horses. the top trainers continually space the races apart with their top horses. In the case of Curlin though, i wasn't the least concerned with him coming back quickly. He had a very easy time of it at Oaklawn this fall. He did'nt have one head and head battle there. All of his races were easy. The derby itself was not a taxing effort imo. He just seemed to go through the motions, and finished a well beaten third on ability alone. On the other hand lets look at Street Senses spring. He had a fierce battle with Any Given Sat at Tampa, and then another head and head battle at Keeneland. He then freaked at CD (once again) and scored his best number in the process. Like i said before in a previous post, i commend both trainers for having their colts ready to fire huge back in 2 weeks...

Curlin was unquestionably under-trained going into the Kentucky Derby.

I'm not exactly sure why people thought he needed a rest.

Really?

So you think Steve Assmussen was lying to me when he told me this past Friday that he had really expected him to win the Derby?

[quote=outofthebox]He had a fierce battle with Any Given Sat at Tampa, and then another head and head battle at Keeneland. QUOTE]

also, I dont know if you were aware of this but Street Sense battled a dead rail at Tampa.

what else would he say? "i thought he might have a chance to run well"

[quote=10 pnt move up]I don;t follow Tampa that well, but it doesn't surprise me one bit about the dead rail. From the few races iv'e watched there the riders seem to prefer the outside.

why didnt you think he was eligible to go forward off the derby considering hes still learning and had a horrible trip? afleet alex bad trip also in louisville

What does that have to do with him being under-trained?

If you watch his workouts....he was pretty much restrained throughout in all of them I saw film of....obviously that is what I mean by being undertrained.

When he got this horse....like what, less than 100 days ago, he got a horse who'd just won his debut, in wire-to-wire fashion, sprinting in fast time.

Basically, through workouts, he's done a job of turning a horse with a milers pedigree and a good deal of natural speed, into a deep closing router...who's been quite flat in the early stages in each of his last two races.

If you watch the Preakness again, he had to be ridden along pretty decently at points through the early stages, and was under a hand ride before the 1/2 mile pole.

He was basically not asked to do any real running in his training....and I certainly don't see how anyone can assume he should be a tired horse based on the four starts he had....he certainly has never acted like a tired horse in any of those career starts...that's for sure.

He had the "best horse" going in....of course he has a right to think he would win.

In his final workouts leading into the Derby---he was being trained in a manner that would suggest that his connections biggest concerns would be his ability to see out the distance.

After running a sub 12 final 1/8th in his previous start, at 9 furlongs...I'm not sure why.

Afleet Alex ran so hard in the Arkansas Derby and KY Derby that I just thought he would take a step back. Curlin had done so much so soon that I thought the same thing.

Clearly, I was wrong both times.

I'm a bit confused here, Drugs. Who was your Derby bet? I thought it was AGS.
If you had such a strong opinion about Curlin, why publically go with AGS?

What are you talking about.

AGS was my Derby bet....though I said repeatedly before the race that Curlin was the "best horse."

As you know---there are many times when you bet against the "best horse."

I thought Curlin beat no one in Arkansas... that's why I figured he was a toss in the Preakness. No one came running from a mile back like Street Sense.. those fractions were ridiculous
gotta wonder

anyway Curlin proved me wrong

nice big horse
made the very classy Street Sense look undersized

LOL

The Fat Man
 

Here's the link. Post #13.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12026

I had Invisible Ink also... had the exacta twice and if he runs third I get the Trifecta.

o-well another Derby another lost opurtunity

this is pretty funny. Not you Wingnut, but I faintly remember others on this board commenting about how "frail" Curlin was. And then I commented that these individuals obviously hadn't been right next to the horse and they replied that they most certainly had and he still looked "frail." LMAO.

Curlin was one of my Derby bets, it worked out just fine finishing where he did. He should be able to win the Belmont as well and I don't think Hard Spun will be in the picture late in the race.

Two words: Spanish Chestnut

That rabbit isn't in the race and Rose avoids the rail down the stretch, I think Afleet Alex wins the Triple Crown.

umm did they? ok. I do know that I heard Circular Quay was frail.
I don't know.. Hard Spun looked warm in the post parade for the Preakness. Curlin should be there.

back to the Preakness...

I watched all the races and didn't see anyone coming from out of the clouds. I thought that would hurt Street Sense's chances and then he gets some ridiculous fractions to run at. Blows by everyone, pulls himself up a little and Curlin is coming for him. Street Sense was my horse and I have a huge problem with betting chalk.

Top 3 in the Derby are th top 3 in the Preakness
I think that is more the norm

not going to cry over a $50 Tri... I've had better place bets.

Good luck,

see you Friday

Ae

druggs havent we milked the capt obv exacta call enough...lol:confused:

Huh? If anything, didn't Spanish Chestnut aid Afleet Alex by eliminating anyone that was within five lengths of the lead?

I agree regarding the rail though.

The horse bothered by Spanish Chesnut was Flower Alley ( who was in the midst of receiving the worst ride, in a lifetime of bad rides, that Jorge Chavez ever gave ).

Afleet Alex was a one-run closer.
How in the world could a rabbit ruin a race for a one-run closer?
What killed AA in the Derby was that his jock rode him as if he was not a one-run closer. It wasn't a terrible ride in a general sense, but it was not a ride that best suited that colt's particular style.

I always liked his ride the year before that in the Preakness on Song of the Sword or whatever that horse's name was.
He puts the colt into a drive 6f from the wire on an obviously dead rail. The hopelessly overmatched horse packs it in and fades to last coming out of the final turn and Jorge hits him about 400 times down the lane despite the fact that I think Smarty was already in the winner's circle by that time.

True, it was unfair of me to select any one ride by Chavez, when there were so many possibilities.

I did like, however, how Chavez sent Flower Alley into a drive midway through that Derby, and then ran him up on Spanish Chesnut's heels. Quite the clever plan.

I'm not milking anything hooves....unless by that you mean reminding people I bet AGS in the Derby.

In this thread, I've only answered the questions asked of me....and most of the time I regret that I answered them.

in that case, i've got one for you.

whos is your favorite jewish person? me? serling? pip? hesz? pit? yourself?

Thanks alot Andy, now I remember who I played in that Derby.. I had mentally blocked it out until NOW!:(

I don't know that Afleet Alex was a one run closer. Most always thought of him as more of a stalker than a closer. Watch his Sanford sometime. I think he had about 37 "runs" in that race, including one all the way out to the outside rail.

Edit: that was the Hopeful of which I was thinking, not the Sanford.

Excuse me? Miler's pedigree? Let's see, some of Smart Strike's leading runners are English Channel, Fleetstreet Dancer (Japan Cup Dirt, 10f+), Tungsten Strike (recent Henry II in Britain, 2 miles).., Yes, he has sired sprinter/milers but his complete record shows that it is not the ONLY type he can sire.

Dam's sire Deputy Minister is another who did sire some speedy types, but has turned out to be a stamina influence for the most part - sired Touch Gold (Belmont), Awesome Again, Deputy Commander, damsire of two Belmont winners (Sarava and Jazil). second dam Barbarika (by 10f specialist Bates Motel) was a multiple graded winner at beyond a mile.

Curlin has plenty to work with to get 10f. He was a short horse in the Derby, that's all.

I love these pedigree geniuses....PA is like our very own Lauren Stich.

Curlin is by Met Mile winner Smart Strike- A sire who's offspring, in dirt races, are often most effective at middle distances.

Curlin's dam is named Sherriff's Deputy. She was unraced. She had FIVE siblings run in route races...NONE of them won. A combined 0-for-28 in route races. One of them did win 8 races in Italy, but according to BRIS, the average winning distance of those 8 races was 4.97 furlongs.

Now, Sherriff's Deputy has had two winning foals prior to Curlin. Her first foal is named Deputy. She's 4-for-20, and the average winning distance of her 4 races is 5.38 furlongs. The second foal is named Secret Wedge, he's won three times, the average winning distance of his three races is 6.33 furlongs.

I realize there are stamina influences in the go-back of the pedigree...but you just made it seem like I was a fool for calling that a milers pedigree.

There is a reason why pedigree analysis is so widely looked down on my by many "high profile" handicappers....and I believe it has to do with the hackery that is often associated with "high profile" pedigree experts.

Freddy Mokowitz