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-   -   HOL: Bigs/Scavs $30k Hits! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=13431)

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-20-2007 08:05 PM

HOL: Bigs/Scavs $30k Hits!
 
lets team up an beat this thing....find the single and the wide race..

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-20-2007 09:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
lets team up an beat this thing....find the single and the wide race..

maybee we could get andy and stevo to put on a ticket structure clinic again for those that missed out last time....

pgardn 05-20-2007 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
maybee we could get andy and stevo to put on a ticket structure clinic again for those that missed out last time....

I cant wait till Im off. Im gonna get in on some of these entertaining bets.

skippy3481 05-20-2007 09:35 PM

I would be happy to Commit money to a pool if several dter's want to go after it. I'm not sure logistic wise how exactly that would work, but if we get enough people interested i'd be all for it.

Scav 05-20-2007 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
I would be happy to Commit money to a pool if several dter's want to go after it. I'm not sure logistic wise how exactly that would work, but if we get enough people interested i'd be all for it.

THAT A BOY SKip, GET IT GOING.

Someone with a paypal and an online account get working on it, can get our own pool open with 5 DTERS putting together tickets, minimum $10 entry, like the players pool.....

As for me, I AM GETTING my trunks on and GETTING IN THE POOL.

7th race is the money race, Idiot Proof looks like a single but there are about 3 more that have a shot to come up and grab him, if speed is dying...

anyone know what the last couple Wednesday's have produced, the old Hollywood used to be all speed because they had so much time to mess with the track.....

declansharbor 05-20-2007 10:50 PM

Best of Luck to those playing. Unusual Suspect was butchered last out by SMith, Mike E.. lol Smith off angle??

Scav 05-20-2007 10:56 PM

Great pull right there DH. All ANGLES will be played in this ticket. I am taking it down...

1) This will be hit, there is no way, given the sequence, that this carrys into a second day
2) 4th and 6th are the headscratchers and a must to go deep, 7th is either a single or 4 deep, 3,5 and 8 should be safe with 3-4 per....

Scav 05-20-2007 11:11 PM

Nakatini only on two horses, 1st and 5th

he has been cold this meet, won a race today....Something to consider, if stays for the 5th, he has a shot

declansharbor 05-20-2007 11:43 PM

Tina Ballerina with her closing kick looks to be a good play in the 8th. With Sexy Operator, a hot pace is ensured. The cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 could work in SO's favor though. Go get em Scavs!!

Scav 05-20-2007 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Tina Ballerina with her closing kick looks to be a good play in the 8th. With Sexy Operator, a hot pace is ensured. The cutback from 6.5 furlongs to 6 could work in SO's favor though. Go get em Scavs!!

Trainer 1 for 33 this year, I know they have to win sometime, just don't think on Friday

I like 3,5,6,10 in that race....going at least four deep because if I am alive till then, I want f'n options.

Waiting until TG's come out tomorrow night, but I am confident with what I have seen so far. What is great is that I have some ammo for this. Thank you Pedroza for your greating turf riding on FRIDAY NIGHT.

Scav 05-21-2007 11:02 AM

Guess who just got a allergist appoint at 3pm on Wednesday. The doctor just happened to call and open up a slot for SCAV......

pmacdaddy 05-21-2007 01:50 PM

Have to say nothing really screamed at me first time through. Couple cought my eye. No idea what ML odds are.

R7 - Shem
Looks like tons of speed in here to me. $200K purchase, busted maiden running off the pace at 6 1/2 f. Came right back to run gamely stretching out to 1 1/16. Consistent speed figs.

Gallager goes Turf/Synth which has worked well - 29% in small sample, 19% route/Sprint. Hooking up with Solis at 22% clip. A definite include for me. Perhaps two deep with Idiot Proof.


R6 - Headcoach

Started career four races back in MSW's. Looked primed last out when sent off as fav. Never really fired, but maybe blinkers experiment was just a flop. Moves down another level and could be sitting on improved effort against these.

Lot's of work to be done here...

pmacdaddy 05-21-2007 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Nakatini only on two horses, 1st and 5th

he has been cold this meet, won a race today....Something to consider, if stays for the 5th, he has a shot

Know what Mr. Greely's 1st Turf % is?

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-21-2007 04:27 PM

i dont think we are doing a pool..............

hockey2315 05-21-2007 04:30 PM

I'd be down for a player's pool of some sort if we could get enough people to go in and come up with a manageable ticket. . .

skippy3481 05-21-2007 04:40 PM

Ahh i think that is a good assumption hooves, I just threw it out there. Always a fun way to attack it because it allows us to go much broader as a group then we could as a single person(well at least me it does.) You never know we could get some people to jump in late.

Rootdog1 05-21-2007 04:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy
Know what Mr. Greely's 1st Turf % is?

11%, and honor grades is 7%.

I like that horse, they scratched it from yesterdays feature for this spot. Although, this is a tough race....I can see going at least 4 deep here.

Scav 05-21-2007 04:48 PM

TG's ARE DOWNLOADED. I have class tonight but guess who will be there in SPIRIT and BODY and not mind. Mind will be focused on PRINTED PP's and TG's for 3 hours, while a teacher is yapping away about management.

More to come possibly later tonight

pmacdaddy 05-21-2007 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
11%, and honor grades is 7%.

I like that horse, they scratched it from yesterdays feature for this spot. Although, this is a tough race....I can see going at least 4 deep here.

Thanks. Agree on that being a tough one. Currently thinkin I could go 2,3,4,8 in there.

Scav 05-21-2007 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
11%, and honor grades is 7%.

I like that horse, they scratched it from yesterdays feature for this spot. Although, this is a tough race....I can see going at least 4 deep here.

Root, this is a hell of a sequence. The TG's don't really point out MANY horses, I was hoping to find three that I could be confident in, and the only horse I like a little bit is Duty Roster in the 3rd. Deputy Commander's progeny run about equal on the dirt as they do on the turf, but the key angle here is the 2 pt improvement stretching out. Have no idea what I am doing yet....no idea

Scav 05-21-2007 10:34 PM

HIGHLY considering singling Casual Thunder in the first leg. As much as I want to get sucked into Taylor's Route and Our Partner, I just can't do it. 5 is a rat, 1 is coming back after 11 days and shipping.....8 is a little scary but the board will tell me everything I need to know about the 6, Casual Thunder is 8/5 or 7/5 unload because of 2nd time Canani....

Scav 05-21-2007 11:29 PM

3: 2,6,7,8
4: 3,5,6,9,10,11
5: 1,4,6,7,8
6: 1,4,5,8,9,10
7: 1,3,4,6
8: 2,3,5,9

Here is what I feel are the only horses that can actually win their respective races. Now before some of your angry internet people gets nuts, in NO WAY am I playing the above ticket. I plan on spending between $900 and $1400 on one ticket. Might not be the right way but whatever. The above is more for a chart, I think that you could toss any horses not mentioned.

The only horse I could potentially single is Robbo's Courage in the 5th but given Nakatini's recent struggles and this horse never trying the turf before, the balls have to be feeling mighty big at 4pm on Wednesday for that to get punched.

As much as I want to single Idiot Proof (and no not because of the name) with the turn back of a 1/2 furlong and it looks like he could go 44/3 and easily win, I worry about this horse getting tired on the cushion and the 1 or 6 cruising by. 1 is also getting 4lbs on equal TG's numbers, which would be good for about 1 length

hockey2315 05-21-2007 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
HIGHLY considering singling Casual Thunder in the first leg. As much as I want to get sucked into Taylor's Route and Our Partner, I just can't do it. 5 is a rat, 1 is coming back after 11 days and shipping.....8 is a little scary but the board will tell me everything I need to know about the 6, Casual Thunder is 8/5 or 7/5 unload because of 2nd time Canani....

Casual Thunder = Hanger

Scav 05-22-2007 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Casual Thunder = Hanger


I know, I KNOW.....but, he is the fastest horse in the race that looks to be loaded with speed and 2nd time Canini.

The 2 is a REAL sneaky horse in that race. Race has speed, I hate the jock because I am going to be 5w going into the final turn but Lewis (trainer) has win %'s of 18% (dirt to turf) and 19% (1st time turf) and huge ROI's (3.65 and 4.70) respectively. That is out of 67 samples and 43 samples also. There is a couple jock changes I am praying for on Wednesday, that is one of them, along with Pick Vic in the 7th.

Lava 05-22-2007 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skippy3481
Ahh i think that is a good assumption hooves, I just threw it out there. Always a fun way to attack it because it allows us to go much broader as a group then we could as a single person(well at least me it does.) You never know we could get some people to jump in late.

I would be up for it

hockey2315 05-22-2007 12:23 AM

Does someone want to organize it? I'd be interested. . .

letswastemoney 05-22-2007 04:04 AM

I like Taylor's Route and Surf Town in the 3rd

I don't remember though if Mud Route a good turf sire.

I like Surf Town simply because he looks like he has plenty of room for improvement.

tanner12oz 05-22-2007 05:57 AM

id play in a pool....

Rootdog1 05-22-2007 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I know, I KNOW.....but, he is the fastest horse in the race that looks to be loaded with speed and 2nd time Canini.

The 2 is a REAL sneaky horse in that race. Race has speed, I hate the jock because I am going to be 5w going into the final turn but Lewis (trainer) has win %'s of 18% (dirt to turf) and 19% (1st time turf) and huge ROI's (3.65 and 4.70) respectively. That is out of 67 samples and 43 samples also. There is a couple jock changes I am praying for on Wednesday, that is one of them, along with Pick Vic in the 7th.


the 3rd is very tough. I do like Casual Thunder on figs and connections but hate that he is 8 yrs old with one win. Still have not decided, using 3 of these 4......Behind The Magic, Duty Roster, Our Partner, Casual Thunder. One thing for sure, the pace will be quick....so look for those that will crumble trying to keep up (not necessarily those that will be on the lead) and toss them.

Scav 05-22-2007 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
the 3rd is very tough. I do like Casual Thunder on figs and connections but hate that he is 8 yrs old with one win. Still have not decided, using 3 of these 4......Behind The Magic, Duty Roster, Our Partner, Casual Thunder. One thing for sure, the pace will be quick....so look for those that will crumble trying to keep up (not necessarily those that will be on the lead) and toss them.

I am considering two tickets. one with CT singled and deepness around, and then two others that are skinnier in other legs....

I fully expect this thing to pay handsomely, given the sequence, no gimme's

Scav 05-22-2007 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
the 3rd is very tough. I do like Casual Thunder on figs and connections but hate that he is 8 yrs old with one win. Still have not decided, using 3 of these 4......Behind The Magic, Duty Roster, Our Partner, Casual Thunder. One thing for sure, the pace will be quick....so look for those that will crumble trying to keep up (not necessarily those that will be on the lead) and toss them.

Don't get sucked into Magic, 11 days and wasn't that impressive. Duty Roster is one that I have talked about, and is awful intriging

ArlJim78 05-22-2007 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Don't get sucked into Magic, 11 days and wasn't that impressive. Duty Roster is one that I have talked about, and is awful intriging

i wouldn't use Behind the Magic, I've got him a cut below several in here.
I would use but definitely not single Casual Thunder, no way would I trust that one with the numerous past disappoints.

Why has no one mentioned River Isalnds, improved last start and now makes third start off layoff, second turf start and was game last time while finishing ahead of Casual Thunder last time.

I would also use the O'neil horse on the outside, Surf Town. I think he could be dangerous.

Scav 05-22-2007 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78
i wouldn't use Behind the Magic, I've got him a cut below several in here.
I would use but definitely not single Casual Thunder, no way would I trust that one with the numerous past disappoints.

Why has no one mentioned River Isalnds, improved last start and now makes third start off layoff, second turf start and was game last time while finishing ahead of Casual Thunder last time.

I would also use the O'neil horse on the outside, Surf Town. I think he could be dangerous.

Yes and Yes, hard to go four deep in this race though because of races 4, 6 and 8. Especially with race 3 having the most available information (current odds, hot horses, exotics will pays, WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING IN?) I am really trying to go 2 deep, 3 at the most

hoovesupsideyourhead 05-22-2007 06:50 PM

the way i see it......
race 3 3 our partner
7 rival islands
2 duty roster
race 4 2 kooky kelly
3 steel kitten
10 harrete topper t town sorry folks..

race 5 8 bersconie..my single

race 6 8 lotta gamble lost all chance in last derby winning connections
10 weft cassidy owns trains
1 andf 1a

race 7 6 shem
1 pick vic
4 idiot proof

race 8 2 gotta go sal ...... win it all horse off the claim with impossible post last
3 star quality scrappy effort last out must use
5 obi naki mig fits conditions well..

thats it good luck all 324bucks and scav kiss my ass..

Coach Pants 05-22-2007 06:53 PM

Time constraints prevent me from playing. :(

Good luck to all of you...but i'm hoping it triple carries. :D

Scav 05-22-2007 07:11 PM

I just realized while reading a DRF article while Nakatini has been soo cold, friggin Stevens was his jock agent. Like he has the time for that crap. Nak fired his ass, expect him to heat up soon

Scav 05-22-2007 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
the way i see it......
race 3 4 exsploited dream jt roi very good race 1 back wins it
2 pieces of paradice only one with a back fig
5 friendly type ran int a 107 6f respect

race4 pp 2 kooky kitty ..metz is slick
pp 3 steel kitten
pp 10 hareete topper ..tommy town and enriqez are deadly in this condition.pre o neal..

race 5 8 bersconie..my single

race 6 8 lotta gamble lost all chance in last derby winning connections
10 weft cassidy owns trains
1 andf 1a

race 7 6 shem
1 pick vic
4 idiot proof

race 8 2 gotta go sal ...... win it all horse off the claim with impossible post last
3 star quality scrappy effort last out must use
5 obi naki mig fits conditions well..

thats it good luck all 324bucks

You actually look at the form, You didn't handicap race 3....

infield_line 05-22-2007 07:23 PM

A Very Modest Stab at the Luckiest Day of Your Life
 
R3 3 running well at the class level, and this sire is on fire 1st time turf

R4 5 should improve second time out... 9 or 10 could win but gotta take stand

R5 4 improving 3yo, good turf sire, 2nd off layoff
5 again, improving 3yr, freshened, working well
8 pedigree and strong first effort

R6 1a dropping off decent fig from very fast race
8 big drop working lights out

R7 2 been running against very tough, handled pace to str at G2, freshened
3 mullins, 2nd of layoff, not a quitter
4 should win, but the kind of single that burns me every time, cut cost or go wider if you believe

R8 2 back class, 1st after claim with trainer that produces winners, drop
3 2nd after layoff, seems to like poly OK, trainer, R/S picks up a pace meltdown
10 dropping from open to state bred (I know, not that big a deal in CA) fast fractions, could shake loose

$108 $36 if you single Idiot Proof...

Should be fun....

I/L

pmacdaddy 05-22-2007 07:46 PM

OK. Here's my shot.

R3 - 6,7
R4 - 3,5,10
R5 - 1,2,4,8
R6 - 1
R7 - 4,6
R8 - 3,5
$192

Good Luck!!

Scav 05-22-2007 08:06 PM

FYI, Pick Six Central on TVG right now, we can at least see who we can toss out when they LOVE a horse tomorrow. Shrup, Simon(decent) and Carothers


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