Let's Guess The Beyer...
 

104

106

curlin 112
ss 110

A short head isn't going to produce a 2-point difference..

I think it's going to be at least 110. Flashy Bull and Hesanoldsalt ran 1:47 4/5.. My guess is 111.

109 and 108 respectively

The classic "111" !

1/2 head => same bsf. 113 is my guess.

This is a VERY tough card to make figures for....

There will be at least one variant split.

Whatever the figure comes back, I would almost take it with a grain of salt, as it would be VERY difficult to have any confidence in that number.

I'd be very interested to hear how CJ has it....because his figures factor pace in.

It's interesting, Dr Roman has given both Curlin and Street Sense a -52 PF (as compared to SS's -57 Derby)..that would equal a 103 Beyer if seen the same by Beyer. That seems a little low to me...I thought the PF for both would be in the -60's...will have to wait to see what Beyer says

He provides both a speed fig and a performance fig. Tha latter takes pace into account.

ps, as you probably know I'm not that cj

John....I would be very surprised if the BSF come back lower than that. I figured I was more on the conservative side.


I have been wrong before though....believe it or not:D

That would mean C.P. West gets a 104 for running 4th....a 12 point lifetime top for running off-the-board....also, Hard Spun's figure would jump to a 108, one point higher than his 107 he earned in the Derby.

Curlin's career numbers are 101-97-103-98

It would seem anti-logic for him to produce a double digit top off of two weeks rest, with no smoke-and-mirrors to help his cause...by that I mean he wasn't aided by a dream trip.

It's a tricky figure....and honestly, looking at times of other races...I'm not so sure a 113 is out of the question.

I'm quite confident you'll see at least one variant split......

114.

109

copycat.....

107 is my guess at what he decides to come back with.

I know. I sure know how to pick em, don't I? :D

I'll go with 108

112-116 both will get the same number I'll bet you anything. Also I bet Beyer changes it about three times.

I second this assessment.

All good points. I'm probably a bit high.....

Curlin and SS will both get the exact same figure--there won't be a 2 point gap.

If the margin is anything less than a half length at that distance...the figures come back the same for both horses.

Yes probably so. But there should be a 1 or 2 point diff. Tougher run for the winner.

should be a 120.......that race was freaking HUGE.

May I ask why there should be a difference? Trips aren't taken into account with the Beyer's. Just the final time. The difference may come in some of the other speed rating systems that do take trips into account.

Whatever the winner gets....C. P. west must get a number 9 points less...keep that in mind.

C. P. West hasn't won since his debut last August...he'd look pretty funny with a 111 Beyer leaping out if Zito ran him in an N1X allowance race next time out.

Beyer's never been high on the winner. His speed figure will be interesting. For about 2-3 seconds. Maybe a split variant with all the races through the 11th on one variant and the 12th and 13th on a different variant.

During a TV interview Beyer said he felt the track was not playing particularly fast when questioned.

My problem is that Roman gave Curlin the lowest PF since Charismatic, that on a day when they tied the stake record...I understand the track was fast but really...I'm disappointed with that figure (-52), three of the last four winners got over -70. If Beyer sees it the same, we are looking at a 103 and that's simply too low imo!

I understand that.

.......whatever, i dont need beyer to tell me when a horse ran a monster race anyway:)

Does Beyer actually do the numbers anymore, or just alter them?

Whoever guessed a 111 BSF would have been correct.

I didn't see this thread earlier. I posted my figures for the day in the 1:54.1 thread. Here they are:

I'm taking this speed figure with a grain of salt.

It's just too hard to have confidence in any number they came back with. You had what appeared to be off and on rain fall during the day---and the track really seemed to change speeds throughout the day.

Just a tough day to be a figure maker in my opinion.

C P West did get the double digit top---and did it while raising sharply in class....he's certainly the best N1X alw horse in the land..that's for sure.

Curlin got an 8 point career top off his double digit Arkansas Derby blowout win.

Normally, when two horses make giant forward moves like that on figures---there is a very compelling explanation...which typically involves a very favorable pace, and or bias, and or trip.

There was certainly no smoke and mirrors with the race Curlin ran yesterday. I made a point of emphasis before the race that he needed to have "4-to-6 length seperation on Street Sense" and he was safe ---when he stumbled, he didn't get that seperation. And, because he didn't get that seperation...he got swallowed by Street Sense's explosive far turn move....which was my biggest fear. I thought there was a chance Curlin could luck into a great trip, but it really didn't happen that way.

C. P. West also wasn't really aided by anything. Zito was certainly right that he might be pointing to a career best race I guess.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead
curlin 112
ss 110


I second this assessment.

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Since when is a nose two BSF points?

Beyer....
 

I third those numbers 112-Curlin
110-Street Sense

Its not impossible to think that CP West could make a good jump in figures, his last race was a slow pace race so its tough to run a high figure in that senario from off the pace, I think he ran close to a 100 based on his prior efforts, a little seasoning, and natural ability. now that makes about 109 for the winners, seems fair....remember curlin did not have best of trips, he seems like the kind capable of a few lengths faster as time goes on.

I just watched the race again, what kind of crazy move was that by Bajarano, he moved on the turn into that crazy pace, he certainly ran a very good race give the pace of that race, nice effort.

I third that it isn't possible when horses finish a head apart.

I fourth that it isn't possible when horses finish a head apart. :p