Street Sense finally will get his chance to silence doubter
 

His one doubter on Earth left I assume......

In my final post here before the Kentucky Derby---I wrote about Calvin Borel's otherworldly success from an ROI standpoint. If you simply bet $100 on every Borel mount at CD over the last 12 months, you would have made a $37,827 profit.

I ended the post with the following....

"In a 20 horse field, with all the other riders aware of his dedication to riding the rail, we should now finally get to find out what Street Sense is capable of, when he doesn't get a magical rail-skimming ride from Calvin."

We found out no such thing! I had a feeling Borel might have been insane enough to attempt a daring last-to-first rail run---but, obviously he would get stopped, and we'd be hearing his Derby backers complain about his ride up until the Preakness.

Not only has Street Sense never run a really good figure when he's not had a dream trip, unmolested rail-run...but he shows many of the same bad habits through the final furlong of those races, that his sire was famous for.

In this decade, the spectacular Street Cry was arguably as brilliant in route races as any horse not named Ghostzapper. However, he had a very serious hanging problem.

He put on dazzling displays of hanging in both the Del Mar Futurity and Norfolk Stakes.

In the Del Mar Futurity, pacesetter Flame Thrower was involved in a 4 way head-to-head pace battle with three other VERY FAST horses. They being Arabian Light (who worked 20 and change at Barretts March and later set the pace in the BC Juvie after winning a Grade 1) Squirtle Squirt (who later won a Breeders Cup Sprint) and High Cascade (who buried Point Given in a wire-to-wire MSW win in his previous start)

Meanwhile, Street Cry rated well off this 4-way head-to-head battle up front, racing in 6th place after a half mile, he made an eye-catching move to confront Flame Thrower at the 1/8th pole. But, he hung like rotten salami through the last furlong. Turning a certain victory into a puzzling defeat.

The "ultra gutsy" Flame Thrower also fought him off in an epic stretch battle in the 105 Beyer Norfolk Stakes.

Street Cry ran 3rd to Macho Uno and Point Given in the Juvenile, according to the chart he "loomed a solid threat for the last eighth but gained only slightly." Street Cry made eight American starts, and had a 8-2-5-1 record. His lone stake win coming in a 118 Beyer Stephen Foster tour de force at Churchill Downs.

However, Street Cry's finest moment of hanging never came in America. In the 2002 UAE Derby, he made an eye-catching move to sieze a lead in deep stretch, seemingly mowing down Lido Palace and Express Tour, and headed for certain victory. However, after passing Express Tour and taking a half length lead on him, he went about his stretch antics, and was beaten. It was truly a legendary piece of hanging.

Street Cry blew horses off the track and ran gigantic figures when he won. When he won, he won spectacularly, when he lost, he hung spectacularly. He was the anti-John Henry. He's the last horse you'd want in a dog fight.

Very quietly, in his last two starts, his son Street Sense has bore in late through the stretch. He's shown signs of hang in his races when he doesn't get his preferred dream trip, and until he shows he can both run a good figure and win a race, without getting his trip....I will stubbornly continue to use him underneath in all exotics, and hope his impossiblestreak of perfect trips finally comes to an end.

There is no way the other jockeys let him skate up the rail this time---and I doubt his one explosive move will be enough to circle and drowned this field---he's going to have to win the Preakness in the final furlong, and without his trip....and when he does that....he'll shut me up for good...and this lunacy will cease.

I did take note the other day while thinking, that while I don't discount the concept of rail trips contributing to Sense's great success, let's not overlook the track angle.

Let's toss his debut as we are willing to toss most horse's debuts with excuses.

That leaves us with one loss on a sloppy mess at Arlington, two losses on Polytrack (including one in one of the most strangely run races in recent memory), and no losses on a fast dirt track.

Perhaps it's a combination of both? I get that he has had great trips and really in no way mean to throw that aside, but outside of his game maiden race, he has never lost on a fast track.

Could it be that the footing affects him equally? Just tossing it out there.

Man, I enjoyed reading your post, great recap on the sire angle!
But as a non-betting horse racing fan, I really am looking forward to seeing you eat your words.

Perhaps.

Though, Street Sense getting perfect trips over and over, and people telling me I have some imaginary bias against him has become overkill to me.

The money I will win when he runs under either HS or Curlin will be secondary. I really hope he makes a stunning sweeping move, and looks 1/9 at the 1/8th pole....and one of the horses he goes past makes a Tiznowesque comeback.

Getting to be?

I thought Street Sense ran a great race last fall over the Poly at Keeneland. The pace was fast; he made a huge, very wide sustained run into the pace; while Great Hunter and Circular Quay had the ideal pace set ups. Factoring the ground loss and being much closer to the fast pace, IMO there's no doubt he was the superior horse that day, which he verified in winning the Breeders Cup in his next start.

But now, he has found himself with 3 ideal trips in his last 4 races. Fast paces to close into, and ground saving rides. Horses coming off good trips invariably end up overbet in their next start. Not that he can't win, but at 6-5 (or maybe even 4-5), the risk/reward isn't worth it.

BTW, if you're Larry Jones, don't you look to run a NW1X or NW2X type 3YO in there, with the sole purpose of staying on the rail in front of Street Sense, forcing him to go at least 2, and preferably 3-4 wide on the far turn?

The few people I know who bet him in the BC Juvie, bet him solely off the basis of his polytrack race---where he was wide, and made a spectacular move, before hanging late.

I agree though---while I say he's never run a good figure when he hasn't had a dream trip....those races include early season 2yo sprints, or races run over either off-tracks or artifical dirt.

He very well might be capable of running an impressive figure without his trip--but, the visual aspect is what makes me lean to think he won't.

Even in the Derby, when he had that easy trip....he still did everything wrong in the very late stages of that race.

DrugS, instead of all this inane posting, could you please repost that picture of you and your mom with the horsey.

No.

It's too bad I have to get going in a little bit here---I really want to start a thread or six about that 4 furlong 2yo maiden winner at Golden Gate today!

Like I said, I don't mean to discount all of the theories about his needing the trip etc, and I too cashed a sweet double with Anna and Sense on BC Day based on how I loved his Keeneland race and thought he was the best that day.

I only intend to add another potential X Factor to the debate, that maybe while everyone is talking about his trip sealing the deal, we're all overlooking that he's never run a "poor" race over a fast conventional dirt surface. So many are just so quick to talk about the trip without adding in any other factors, this one has been sorely overlooked in Derby analysis. Sure the trip contributed, but is there another potential cause that many are willing to toss or not even acknowledge in the quest to discredit the Derby champion?

It paid $7.40

It was the most expensive yearling ever sold by Gibson County. The 4/5 favorite worked a soft 23 flat at OBS FEB.

He missed it.....he was getting a manicure.

Hey...at least he is posting this moronic bs over here and not somewhere else.

Me too!!! I hope he circles the whole field and wins by 15 with Calvin standing in the irons yelling "Hows this for ya Drugs??" hehe Just teasing ya.;)

Watch Circular Quay on the keeneland futurity race view, and head-on view in that race. He is going to make a run, and when he is about to swing outside he is completely trapped into the turn, slams out against the horse who trapped him inside several times throughout the turn, finally breaks out of that and still gets 2nd. Much the best in that race.

Street Sense had to go wide and he is a much better dirt horse than polytrack so it was a good effort for him as well.


There is also a nice overhead shot of CQ getting trapped on one of the old wire-to-wire videos or else in a preview to the risen star.

That was a nice read.

In my Derby scenario I pictured Street Sense saving ground early, and then passing whoever had the lead in the stretch- (have to be either Hard Spun or Curlin) while on the outside.

I didn't think he would go for the rail, but that is how it happened.

I don't have as clear a picture of the exact type of race that will win the Preakness. I again think that Street Sense will be coming on the outside with his bid.

I am less worried about the trip than I am Hard Spun and Curlin. Street Sense's style means that having to check would cost him the race. Yet he is full of steam and moving late when others are tiring so he shouldn't have to check.

I think he only hangs here if Borel moves him too early or if he gets a terrible trip.

Calvin's specialty when he can't go up the rail.

He bumps once (or twice) with the horse to his outside on the turn NEVER losing stride. He's not trapped. He never breaks stride. He's just typically sucking along waiting for the others to run so that he picks up the pieces.
What I particularly enjoyed was his stretch run, where he's clunking along and the jock hits him lefty and he drifts out and then the jock switches the whip and he drifts in. He was Full of Run, to say the least. Was he drunk?

I think being 19th out of a 20 horse field in the Derby was not a wise move by Calvin, although I can't deny it worked out for him. Run that race 100 times though, with him in that same spot, and I think he only wins about 10% of the time if he's lucky. More times than not, he would have to lose momentum at some point trying to pass 18 horses. If things played out the way they normally would have, we'd be talking about how Hard Spun won the Derby, and SS backers would be playing him as the 2nd choice in the Preakness on the 'troubled trip' angle.

"although I can't deny it worked out for him"

you aren't trying hard enough. some people think the war was a good idea. follow their example.

"Run that race 100 times though, with him in that same spot, and I think he only wins about 10% of the time if he's lucky."

you missed a "0" in that percentage or meant "unless" instead of "if".

"More times than not, he would have to lose momentum at some point trying to pass 18 horses."

i bet the red sea but have come to accept the win by moses. learn from me.

"If things played out the way they normally would have, we'd be talking about how Hard Spun won the Derby, and SS backers would be playing him as the 2nd choice in the Preakness on the 'troubled trip' angle"

most ss backers are all over hard spun in that universe. someone needs to empty the triple crown winner drool bucket in both.

I'm getting a little sick of the Department of Street Sense Defense, but that was a pretty funny line.

blah blah blah blah :D

Yawn.....

I'm bored with this...

See you after Saturday...

For the record....

I certainly don't think he will bounce.

We are forgetting a strong angle NYRA can't catch a break anywhere, a possible Street Sense going for the crown vs a possible showdown with RTR is asking alot.

For the record....

I certainly don't think NYRA's luck (or lack of luck) will have anything to do with the outcome on Saturday.

This is a Karma angle similar to Mazurs outstanding info but this is free.

can't find the overhead view of the Keeneland Futurity
 

On the head-on view from calracing:
time - amateur analysis
1:05 - horses enter the far turn
1:08 - circular quay starts outside (on rail blue orange - looks purple)
1:11 - CQ trapped inside of Birdbirdistheword (yellow on side of CQ)
1:18 - CQ still trapped horses brush
1:20 - trapped Johnny V. Slams CQ into Birdbirdistheword while yelling expletives
1:21 - CQ swings out to try to bump again but Bird is finally moving
1:35 - Velasquez cuts off birdistheturd
1:50- CQ appears to pass poorHunter after the wire

This I believe is the only thing that can stop Street Sense....The NYRA SHiatty luck theory.

How about my shiatty luck? No beer tent, what the hell!!

Interesting coming from the same guy who keeps saying that Street Sense won the Derby only by a lucky trip.

Are we having a Preakness Beer Tent?

Tom's...and don't you be one of these SS is freaking god people or you'll be banned from estreet...wipe yer chin off, ya got some SSSppuunnkk on it!!!!