Another easy work for Curlin
 

He breezed a half mile in 51....by the sounds of the reports, yet another very easy work where he was restrained throughout.

I was kind of hoping he'd finally be allowed to do something for a change...certainly something quick would get him back on his toes...and I believe, it would be to his benefit going into the Preakness.

I'm certainly not going to be holding my breath that he will be taken away from the pony in the pre-race, and having Robby give him a brisk warm-up and getting him on his toes.

When Asmussen got this horse a few months ago---he was getting a horse with a milers pedigree off a very fleet wire-to-wire win sprinting---through some ultra conservative handling...it appears as though he's doing a fine job of turning the horse into a stretch running router.

He seems more intent on trying to not ruin the horse--instead of doing what I believe will give him his best chance of a victory in a Classic race. I can understand it--but, from a betting standpoint, I wish he'd have done something more geared to sharpening speed than stamina and conditioning. I believe he has more than enough of the latter...he needs a return to his preferred stalking tactics in the Preakness, and the pace figures to be MUCH faster than it was in the slow-paced Arkansas Derby.

Hopefully he can real comfortably stalk a live Preakness pace...and has built enough seperation between himself and Street Sense....as Curlin is a very well made grinding kind of horse...who simply doesn't have the big turn-of-foot of Street Sense...if Street Sense doesn't have Curlin beat by the 1/8 pole...he's very likely not getting by.

A lot of people seem to like this horse Saturday. I honestly give him very little chance at all.

CJ..

Would love to have you expand on this a bit.. I imagine your thinking this way stems from a pace scenario/fig standpoint... ??

Price will dictate who my win bet will be on--it's either going to be on him or Hard Spun.

But yeah, I'd have been much more tempted had Curlin been finally allowed to do something in one of his works.

I don't mean something crazy-fast like Hard Spun did in his final work leading into the Derby (running a 10 and change 1st furlong, burying a Grade 1 winning sprinter, and getting 5 furlongs in 57 and change.) but I just wish he'd have done something to get him on his toes a little bit....it's about time I'd say.

I give Curlin a very good chance to win the Preakness, but it's hard to say since the field is not yet set.

Off Subject but how long was the race the Xchanger ran at Pimlico a few weeks ago?

9f

A shockingly similar distance to how far he will finish behind the winner Saturday.

From a betting standpoint, I'd have liked Curlin's chances a little more on Saturday had it been a little more than just a maintenace work.

is that because you've factored in for a bounce?

I always do.

I don't think he has ever shown enough to beat either Hard Spun or Street Sense. I am not real big on betting horses that need to improve to win without getting a paid for making that leap. I just don't think he is good enough, and 4 to 1 isn't near enough in my opinion.

Is he going to lay close to Hard Spun and outrun him home while holding off Steet Sense? Or is he going to lay back and out kick Street Sense and Hard Spun? I don't see it.

In order to win....he's going to need some help from Flying First Class and Kingoftheroxy denying Hard Spun his preferred front running-tactic...if he can lay two and a half or three lengths off of that trio---and have a four to six length seperation on Street Sense....he will be VERY tough to beat in my opinion.

To me, he's a 3/5 or 4/5 shot if that exact trip plays out...and it could. If that trip doesn't play out for him...you're right, he's no value at 4/1, and might not even offer that much value at 6/1.

For me, it boils down to what the likelyhood of him getting that trip is. I actually think it's a lot better than the likelyhood of Street Sense getting the trip he got in the Derby....and Street Sense was just about a 2/5 or 1/2 shot in the Derby, if allowed his preferred dream rail run with the aid of a pace setup.

If Steet Sense had Curlin's trip in the Derby, he still wins.

I see math wasn't one of your stronger subjects.

Nothing like a horseplayer with an initially bad opinion allowing it to spiral into a plethora of even worse opinions. Seriously, you will find yourself with more time, and more money, if you would just admit you were wrong about Street Sense and try to focus on actually making money at the racetrack.

To be perfectly honest you are acting like a now banned member from this site who has also never acknowledged the many times he was wrong ( while also pretending he objectively analyzes races ).

Interesting thread...personally, I would hate to see any horse work fast between the Derby and the Preakness...and Curlin, with his lack of seasoning and the fact this will be his 5th race since 2/3/07, certainly wouldn't benefit from same imo. Curlin seems to do 6f in about 1:13 in his routes, I don't see him close to a swift pace. With SS's gears, he can afford to give Curlin first run I think. To me, only Hard Spun has the potential to stop SS and that depends on whether he can maintain his form off a two week rest.

It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Is SS gonna get the Moses trip again?

He just needs to settle just behind the pacesetters and get a clear run.

Shouldn't be too hard to do.

Please tell me all I have been wrong about.....

Or are you just playing the role of the warm-up act for ARyan again?

If King of the Roxy stay just off Hard Spun and FFC he should be able to hit the board at a nice price

I can't believe you are concerned with a workout and how strenuous it was or wasn't.

TFM,

I think he needs a great trip, while the other two have poor trips, to have a chance. If they all get a fair shot, Curlin is no better than 3rd best.

If Hard Spun gets a rough trip, it is very unlikely that Street Sense will. If the Derby winner gets a rough trip, it most likely means Hard Spun is not. I think either of those beats Curlin even with moderate adversity. I'm not even convinced he is better than Sedgefield or King of the Roxy.

In order to show improved early speed, like he will probably need to in order to fall into that trip....it would have helped if he'd have worked in a manner that could put him on his toes a little more.

As you know....the speed horses show through the early stages of races can be tweaked by how they are handled coming into the race.

A bad trip for SS is someone blocking the rail.

What you say is true, but if I was going that deep to figure out who I would or would not bet, I'd find another race. Being up close is probably not a good idea in my opinion, but I guess we'll see on Saturday.

It is obvious that a few people on here do not value your opinion based on your continued stubborn aversion to admit when you were just wrong in your handicapping. Nobody, certainly not myself or anyone on this board, is 100% correct on every opinion on a horse or race. You are no different.

After Saturday, it will be very interesting to see what excuses you will come up with for why all the hypotheses you played out for everyone to read didn't pan out in reality.

At least you have some practice at doing so...

Wouldn't be the first time!!

I think CJ was just saying better value can be found elsewhere...and I think he's right.

My reaction to his post in this thread had more to do with something he posted in a different thread that I took as a slight. Perhaps he didn't mean it that way. Oh well, let's move on.
I don't want to hijack TWO threads just because apparently I am unusually irritable today.

I repsonded in the other thread, I didn't mean any ill will.

As for your sig, I'll take the Silver Charm/Free House/Captain Bodgit race, mostly because I was there.

You have no idea what you're talking about.

[quote=the_fat_man]It all depends; it's relative.

Is HS gonna have everything his own way as he did in the Derby?

Just how did HS have things his own way? He set honest fractions, and held on for a game 2nd, while all the other horses that tried to go with him backed up the track.

[quote=herkhorse]yea, he ran quick, but a talented front runner left alone on the lead, well the faster they go the better in my book...there is a large gap IMO in pressured pace and fast pace, to me Hard Spun set a fast pace.....you want to see a pressured pace, and it was fast as well, watch Holy Bull in the Travers in 94', he still won.

I didn't say he wasn't sharp, just that when he is wrong, just say, "Hey, I missed that one." Not make up trip excuses or not give a horse/jock/trainer some credit.

That was my point, not that he is a dullard when it comes to horse racing or handicapping.

We will learn more on Saturday.

If Street Sense wins--or gets beat a very short margin by a perfect trip aided Hard Spun or Curlin--without SS getting another perfect rail trip....I will have no trouble saying "I'm totally wrong about him....he's unarguably the best 3yo colt around."

Everyone knows how pretty I am already.....

In my opinion, Hard Spun did get to take advantage of using his preferred front-running tactics, and he also had the advantage of racing over the slightly favorable inside path.

However, Hard Spun earned BOTH the clear early lead, and rail position, because he ran very fast early to achieve both.

Everyone knew the pace would be to Street Sense's benefit going in, and the same should apply to the Preakness.

However Street Sense did not earn his trip. IMO, it was a combination of what will be remembered as a historically great ride, combined with the misjudgement of a few other jockeys (Zanjero's especially) that allowed him to pass 16 horses without leaving the rail.

Now, deep closers are ALMOST NEVER supposed to get trips like that--and Street Sense has three of them in his last four races. Why? IMO, because he has a jocked who's both commited to riding the rail and skilled at it. And also importantly...Street Sense has an uncommonly good turn-of-foot (by far his best asset) that allows him to take advantage of an opening, before it has time to close on him.

Just like in the Derby---I believe he can win the Preakness if he gets his trip, if he doesn't get his trip, I think he'll finish 2nd or 3rd....and I REALLY don't think he'll get his trip this time...though, I said the same going into the Derby.

I actually agree with this, but with that said Street Sense goes three wide both turns and runs off again I wont be floored either, lets face it he gassed the two strongest fields he has faced.