Preakness - I don't think I like anyone
 

I think that Street Sense and Hard Spun are both major bounce candidates coming off those big efforts in two weeks. I think that Curlin may have been thrown to the wolves one too many times. I think that King of the Roxy and Flying First Class max out at eight furlongs. I think that Mint Slewlep and C.P. West are too slow. I think that Xchanger will be in over his head. I think that Matz is being too wishy-washy with Chelokee.

I don't remember a TC race in which I didn't like ANYONE.

you sound like a "local" handicapper from my area :D

just remember, somebody has to win. i don't see a big let down from the top two from the derby, if they do drop a bit, i think they are still above the others.

If SS had the perfect trip as eveybody says, and he jogged a mile the next day...I humbly suggest he won't bounce. the ones who got traffic trips or were jostled a bit might be the bounce candidates.

How cant you like Hard Spun?? Less Distance will be good for him as well as the track

Hope can get some decent odds on him tho:confused:

Didn't like how wobbly he looked in the stretch of the Derby and he'll have plenty of company on the front end this time.

both the top 2 finishers in the derby should have plenty of gas left after what would historically have been a light 3yo campaign up to the derby.

of the 2 i have more questions about how street sense runs outside of churchill than i do hard spuns ability to carry his speed against a smaller field in the preakness.

Doesn't the defection of Tberg change that a little, though? Not to mention the fact that HS set pretty decent fractions at the beginning of the Derby and still hung on at the end. . .

Yeah, I was very impressed with Hard Spun's race in the Derby, which is why I think it'll be hard for him to duplicate it on two weeks' rest with Flying First Class and Xchanger pressuring him every step of the way. I'd much rather see him just off the lead, but either way, I just get the feeling that his Derby race was really grueling. I could be wrong, but we'll see.

I feel the exact same way about the race as you do. One additional factor is that Street Sense may regress by a couple of lengths just based on the fact that the race is not at Churchill. He seems to move way up at Churchill. I think that the top 3 horses are vulnerable but I don't see a legitimate alternative.

time to hit the All button!

Richi,

Surprised to hear the above from you. And totally surprised that so many are taking this 'Churchill specialist' view of the Derby winner...

His record:

Four wins on three different tracks (CD; TBD; AP);

2nd a nose in the BG, 3rd by 1.75L to Great Hunter/Circular Quay in Breeders' Futurity on Poly at KEE where both times he gawked at the grandstand off the turn;

Second by 4L in his 6f career debut from the 9 hole while wide throughout and 3rd in the slop by 1.75L in the AP-WAS Futurity from the 9 hole while wide...

Importantly, unlike 'modern' trainers, Nafzger doesn't care about winning every start.. He brought this colt along with the intention of winning 2 races: The BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. How'd that work out? Nafzger had this horse ready to fire best shots wherever these races were going to be run. It is incidental that the BC was at Churchill last year. He would have won the Juvenile wherever it was run. Getting horses' ready for a supreme effort is what he has always done best. But it's also a negative as I'll address below.

Use Unbridled as the model for this discussion both positive and negative. Was the 1990 Breeders' Cup at Churchill? No.. It was at Belmont and that didn't seem to bother Unbridled who had won the Derby easily by 3+ lengths. On the way to the Derby he had been beaten by Shot Gun Scott, twice; Smelly; Summer Squall; Land Rush, and several others in the Blue Grass, Tropical Park Derby, In Reality and Canterbury Juvenile, among others.

(And Unshaded was pointed for the Travers when Nafzger missed the Derby with him saying, "Well, we'll just have to go to New York and paint that canoe.")

It's not a question of Street Sense just being better at Churchill than anywhere else. What is worrisome is the fact that Nafzger really doesn't think about what is upcoming post-Derby. Unbridled was beaten 4L in the Preakness by Summer Squall, and really was empty by the time they reached Belmont. If Street Sense gets beat at Baltimore, it will be because as Nafzger admits, he really had no plan for him beyond the first Saturday in May and his tank may have been emptied in the Derby. As he says, he got him ready for Derby, and now "It's up to the horse."

I really don't think that you can blame anyone for not pointing toward the Preakness. The Ky Derby is the goal. I don't know how many starts Unbridled had before the Derby. Street Sense's two starts was a big deal because it's been 50 yrs or something since anyone had won with less than 3. Historically, horses that are cranked up for the Derby are still cranked up for the Preakness. The majority, in recent times have cruised in the Preakness.

I imagine Hard Spun will be 9/5 and Street Sense 2-1. Can't see Curlin worse than 4-1. I think Curlin might be ready to throw in a clunker. The rule, normally is 3 and out. That's why I left him off my Derby tri :(

Street Sense may have avoided the rail at Keeneland because it wasn't the place to be. Don't know what will be the strategy in Baltimore. Do you think someone will sit on the rail just to make SS go around? Churchill or Pimlico - if they're bunched up on the turn, he's going to blow by 'em like they're sitting still.

Larry Jones told ATRAB that Hard Spun was given the 6 weeks off before the Derby with the grind of the Triple Crown in mind. He also said his horse was doing better after the Derby than before (not sure if that is trainer BS, but why lie?). He also said they would not send and look for a stalking trip similar to his TP race.

I am looking for a Tampa Bay Derby'esque battle next Sat. between Hard Spun (playing the roll of AGS) and Street Sense. The only wild card is Curlin, the others are not fast enough.

There's no way in hell Hard Spun will be a shorter price than Street Sense..

About the rail thing though.. That's another thing that concerns me about Street Sense in the Preakness. Since I've been watching Borel, I've noticed that he's great at sneaking up the rail and mediocre at best at everything else. In the past few weeks alone, I've seen him move way too early on about four different horses when the rail wasn't available. You can get away with an early move if you're on the wood.. Outside.. Not so much.

Everyone keeps saying "Hard Spun has a much better shot because the Preakness is shorter"....well it is 1/16th shorter...does anyone remember where SS and HS were in relation to each other at the 1/16th pole at CD in the Derby? I do. Also, the Preakness pace will seem to me to be quicker solely with the addition of FFC and Xchanger.

The three "left overs" from the Derby look really solid...tough to make a case for the others. A SS/HS/CURL box looks the ticket!

And will pay about $12 for every $1 :)

Good morning! :)
"Better than a sharp stick in the eye!!!" :D

How can the top three be vulnerable if there are no legitimate alternatives?
Doesn't that kinda make them invulnerable?

more to the thinking that hard spun will be there at the end than the 1/16th shorter. second off a six week layoff, with his trainer seemingly looking past the derby in planning and training, vs a horse who was being pointed (as his trainer admitted) to the derby. there was no bigger picture involved when planning and executing street senses derby campaign. also, hard spun doesn't have to have the lead, he's won while laying just off, so the inclusion of speedsters isn't necessarily a bad thing. also, his early run in the derby only cost him a length at the end of the derby--hopefully mario will be a bit more patient a bit longer, and allow the horse to relax a little longer early and mid-race.

maybe each is vulnerable to the other two, but as a whole, not to the rest of the field?

vulnerable to each other I can go with. I was going with the premise of the thread that these are all bounces candidates with nothing to like in the Preakness. I don't see it. I would rate their odds the same as the order of finish in the derby. The newcomers I don't see as an exacta threat, maybe third.

Someone said it -- but SS has only had 3 starts this year! It's not like he's been campaigned since January and he's wobbly. I think he's legit on Saturday. Hard Spun got an easy lead, slowed it down midway and now figures to have company. Just for value, I might try to toss him from exotics and see if I can make a buck.

What I meant by vulnerable is that these horses may not run nearly as well this time. If there are no other good horses in the race, then there is still a good chance that one of the favorites will win. But I only look to bet on a horse that I think is going to run a big race. If I think that there is a good chance that a horse won't fire, I'm not going to bet that horse any way and hope that his "B" or "C" game will be good enough to win.

If you think that a horse is not going to fire, I think it's dangerous to bet the horse regardless of the competition. The reason being that it is too hard to predict the extent to which a horse won't fire. Scat Daddy is a perfect example. If you thought that he wasn't going to fire in the Derby, there was still no way to know whether he would get beaten by 8 lengths or 35 lengths. He ended up getting beaten by 35 lengths.

Anyway, we all have different methods of handicapping. The first thing that I personally look for is a horse that I think will run a big race. If I don't think that a horse is going to run something near his best, I won't bet him even if the competition is sub-par.

I agree with most of what you are saying. My main concern is not the track surface. My main concern is the same concern that you and Ateam expressed which is basically that SS may have emptied his tank in the Derby. But in addition to that, he may not be as effective at other tracks as he is at Churchill. I'm not saying that he hasn't run plenty of good race at other tracks. I'm just saying that his freakish performances have been at Churchill. I don't know for sure that he moves up at Churchill. It could just be a matter of Nafzger having him ready for peak permances on those days. It's hard to tell. But there is at least a possibility that the horse moves up by a few lengths at Churchill.

If you think SS emptied his tank, certainly you must think HS did too?

I don't expect Street Sense, Hard Spun, or Curlin to 'not fire". I'm expecting good efforts from all of them. None of them have shown me the type of signals that they are inconsistent, over-raced, over-the-top etc.
It's not a race that I'm interested in betting. I just don't get all the expectations of bouncing and not firing. These horses have nearly spotless records and always have shown up when the gates open.

Yes, absolutely. HS ran even harder than SS.

This is a totally different situation. These horses have never come back on only two weeks rest.

Not that horses who run well in the Derby don't often come back and run well in the Preakness. They often times run well. Derby winners have done exceptionally well in the Preakness in recent years. It just depends on the situation and the horse. I didn't expect Barbaro, Giacamo, or Smarty Jones to bounce in the Preakness. It just depends on the situation. I judge every horse as an individual.

The Preakness is normally the first time almost any three year old comes back on only two weeks rest, so to say that these have never come back before on only two weeks rest doesn't mean much to me. It was the same for other Kentucky derby winners who have done well in the Preakness as you have mentioned.

Why did you not expect Barbaro, Giacomo or Smarty Jones to bounce, but you are expecting Street Sense and Hard Spun to do so? What is it about their individual situations that makes it so clear in your mind?

For what it's worth, if any of those were bounce candidates (depending on the extent to which you believe in it...), it was Giacomo.

Barbaro ran a career top in the Derby, Smarty Jones had been consistently fast going into it, but Giacomo ran his best TG fig by far -- improving his best ever performance by 4.5 points, which if I'm not mistaken correlates to roughly ten lengths better than any of his previous performances which were in and of themselves sort of sneakily better than they looked.

I know that numbers aren't everything by any stretch, but if we believed that Giacomo shouldn't bounce but Street Sense should, something doesn't add up.

Giacomo must have bounced the rest of his career as well.

Enough with bounce....it's imaginary and the sooner people realize this and start handicapping and analyzing races logically the better off they will be.

Well that solves it.

Barbaro had 5 weeks before the Derby, whereas SS only had 3 weeks.

With Smarty Jones, I got to see some footage of him training between the Derby and the Preakness and he looked great. That is the only reason that I didn't expect him to regress in the Preakness. If I didn't know how well he was doing, I would have been concerned about a possible bounce. I was actually shocked at how good he looked training between the Derby and Preakness. He had run a lot of hard races on short rest. That horse was made of steele.

With Giacomo, he had 4 weeks before the Derby. Not only that, he had been coming from behind and just picking up the pieces and hitting the board, but not winning, in his races leading up to the Derby. I wouldn't expect that to take as much out of a horse.

With Curlin, I thought they were asking a huge amount of him to run in the Derby. He'd only run 3 times and he was coming back in 3 weeks. I thought that was more than the horse could take. Now to ask him to come back in 2 weeks is really asking a lot.

None of this is an exact science. I can't tell you what will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. All I can do is make an educated guess as to what I think is asking a horse too much.

I'm not saying that I'm confident that these 3 horses won't fire. I'm just saying that all 3 of these horses are being asked for a lot under the circumstances and I think that all 3 are vulnerable to regress in the Preakness.

Well, as always we know who the folks at NYRA are rooting for. I really think Street Sense will come right back and be very tough.

I know that there are people that believe that a horse will "bounce" if the horse runs a career-best race. I'm not a big believer in that theory. I believe that horses should have plenty of time between races and if you bring them back too soon, they may not be able to repeat their previous race. I don't know if you would define that as a "bounce".

I like King of the Roxy here.