Belmont - First Race today (5-11)
 

#6 - "Truer Than True"

Watch this filly - she can run a little.


Actually, I'm just checking out the link to the photo.

I assume the horse you are touting is Now More Than Ever, Truer Than True is another Kimmel horse, and she is WAY out of her league today.

Calla Lily should win this thing pretty easily at nothing-to-five.

NT

I'm not convinced of that. She may be better than these, and certainly she has kept MUCH better company, but her last was poor. Plus, there isn't much pace in this race.

Probably not betting against her either.

I'm starting to think that a fresh Rewrite with that cozy inside draw could get right to the lead in the 1 3/4 turn race. I'm curious because, like you, put more than some faith in Beyer Figures and Calla Lily is coming off a lifetime top. Why would you say that was a poor race?

NT

It was a poor effort. I don't like Beyer figs in turf races and that one is way too high. Take a look at how the third finisher did at odds on at Belmont last week.

It was a better field than this however but Calla Lily ran very poorly.

The Kimmel horse to watch (and bet heavily on, if that is your thing) is a horse that was scratched yesterday. Keep an eye out for Dr. Franklin. Ran a huge race in his first at Gulfstream and Kent D. blew the ride.

That horse is running today.

He was probably best last time, and galloped out strongly, but it wasn't much of a field. He's one of the favorites today, and can win, but he's a bit of a trap.

I would wonder why he hasn't raced since then and why he is still running for a tag. He's not much and probably has issues.

AND, Kent D. is aboard again!

"Truer Than True" - Doesn't even REMOTELY SOUND like "Now More Than Ever"... but how come I could live to be 100 and STILL get the names mixed up. YES of course I meant "Now More Than Ever".. (Sorry but we lost "Truer Than True" in a claim a few months ago - he's gone way downhill since)

Not to worry though... I know it ain't saying' much, but "Now More Than Ever" should at least beat half the fillies way out of her league. LOL

45 minutes to post... we'll see what happens.

I just realize my post sounded like watch out for in the future and not today. Sorry about that. It is the 4th at Belmont today.

You make some good points and maybe I will cut back on the bet ($20 across the board is a big bet for me) but probably not. I lost money on him the first time and I have the problem of repeatedly betting horses I lose money on. Not a smart gambler, but it is a tough habit to break.

:)
Good luck, watching the replay he gave a good effort first time out.. although I didn't think Kent D. cost him the race (as much as I like to blame him for a horse's poor effort :) )

At first I didn't think he gave a terrible ride, but I was standing 5 feet from him after he got off the horse and he was yelling at himself. I watched it again and he probably could have given a better ride. The horse was probably the best and he just wasn't lucky.

I'll watch it again. thanks.

Truer than True was never much and had a brief couple of fair efforts before getting claimed. " Way downhill? " I don't think that was possible considering his overall form.

You are touting a horse and now saying you expect her to beat half of her six opponents? Thanks. She most likely won't.

Dr. Franklin
 

"Issues" ??

Us "ground workers" are not privey to that information,, but some unconfirned sources speculate he'll breakdown. I ALWAYS think Kimmel knows what he's doing... (I hope). In any case,, Franklyn is always a tuff guy around the barn. Let's see what he's got out on the track today. He's alomst impossible to hold down. He's been climbing the walls ready to run. The groom and hotwalker say there's NO WAY he'll loose. They say he should win from here to the kitchen. All they have to do is get him loaded in the gate and he's a winner. I DO know one thing is FOR SURE... either he'll win, or he'll die TRYING. LOL

2 Hrs till post time, let's see what happens.

Or he'll finish the race and lose.

Most horses have issues by the way. Even those of us not on the inside know that.

And, furthermore, who said anything about him breaking down? Besides you of course.

She's got no shot.

I like the 2, assuming it doesn't come up too soft today. How does the turf look?

Well I am pretty confident Dr. Franklin will win, but it is harder to win at Belmont than Gulfstream. The layoff concerns me a little, but I am using cash not bodog account money on him, so $20 WPS is pretty much my limit. I find when I bet with cash, regardless of how much I win, I waste it back betting useless things like pick 6's. My offshore account has saved me thousands over the years.

For those keeping score at home.....Now More Than Ever was a significant last.

thanks for the update, i'm at work but i was on the edge of my seat waiting for the news.

who did win?

Dean's List in a three horse photo. Rewrite was third and For Always was second.

And you couldn't have asked for a better ride. It looked like the race was fixed.

Well, of course you weren't wrong, it was obviously a fixed race.

She did get a lousy ride....and then backed up when the real running began in the stretch.

The horse who had the impossible journey was the favorite, Calla Lily, as at least she could have been a contender. Now More Than Ever was never a contender.

I'm never wrong.


I do however seem to run into a lot of fixed races.

Of course she was never a contender, she got CHOKED and snatched on the first 3/4 mile. Did you watch the race carefully?

Rewrite, rewrote the book on how to spit the bit after incredibly slow fractions.

Yes, I watched the race carefully, and saw that she lost ground when clear in the stretch.

On of the boggest mistakes people make in watching races is focusing only on the horse they are interested in and then should that horse encounter trouble failing to accurately evaluate the horse's total effort. You are guilty of both in this case.

While the pace was slow, but there was give in the ground, you have to be very careful with the early fractions in 1 1/16 mile races on the inner turf course at Belmont. There is virtually no run-up, which always causes the first quarter to seem over a second slow, and the ground undulates in an odd way which also contributes to the slow pace. They had pretty much stopped running these races the last few years and have only reinstituted them en masse this meet.

Dr. Franklin was green at times in his debut. Kent riding him back is a good sign if this horse carries that same form , expect him to move a little bit sooner.

The horses that make the 4th race interesting are the unknowns and where they will factor into the trifecta or super. If I am going to put up $150 on the super I don't want one of these guys sneaking in to win or place, or I want to know who to use in exotics to "save".

The 3horse- is this guy going to come up with something big or does he need at least 9 furlongs and some pace up front

The 5 has had no luck , is he healthy now ?

The 11 - if he likes the turf he should have a career best effort. He hasn't shown anything in a race beyond 4f. Toss the slop race. Works show he isn't a pig.

4- cheap , enjoyed the added distance, should enjoy the grass

Even the 8 has a small probability to get 4th if Samyn sucks up


----Tossing the 1,2 but I don't like seeing Prado on the 2 and the 1 has never tried turf yet.

Not an easy race to invest big. Exacta is probably more realistic.

this 3rd race should be easy

The 3 and 5, especially Dance Czar, were my bombs as well. Dance Czar had a bit of a trip in his debut and ran against MUCH tougher than Chinsegut Bay and Dr. Franklin did in their debuts.

Thanks...good to know. I didn't bet the race I was just watching.

with 11 min to go looking at exacta probable payouts -

playing the board:
$1 exacta 2 over the 3and5 - is a nice one if you think speed could hold here at a mile.


trifecta 3,5 with 1,2,3,5 with 1,2,3,5 isn't the worst "action bet" in the world

EDIT 3RDRACE

While I have always been curious about the continually unreliable seeming first fractions in those races, most of what I learned about it was from Richard Migliore, who is a great asset to me in learning about trips and racewatching. He is a never ending source of interesting and useful information about racing.

Interesting stuff, Andy - thanks. Given that we may not have a chance to talk to the Mig, any other sources you'd recommend for someone trying to learn more about jockey tactics, trips and racewatching?

trifecta 351

I lose $3.10 for all of the above... shoulda had an opinion:rolleyes:

Richie is an unusually sharp guy who absolutely loves everything about the game. Not as a knock on other riders, and I have honestly never really spoken about racing with any, but it would be hard to find a more knowledgable and informative source. However, I value insights from all the people I know at the racetrack, especially backstretch people, as they can offer ideas that I don't know about. Obviously one shouldn't take everything at face value but a different take will often at least be interesting.

The thing about my asking Mig is I know enough about what to ask that I can usually get an informed opinion from him. Let's face it, no matter how much I might think I know, he will know plenty of things I can't know.