Hard Spun's Condition.......Fit Or Fatigued
 

After reading such conflicting information including the thread here about the accuracy of media "opinion" or facts, I am left with less of a feeling of certainty about the horses condition.

Did Mario ruin him for a couple months by leaving his best effort on the track a week prior to the day he needed it or did the horse get a strong work that was part of his intended cycle.

I agree with many here that although I think you have to have savers with some of the obvious chalk I would love to key Hard Spun for a great score if I had confidence of his current condition.

What do people think????

i think we will see when the gate opens..thats a fast work..

Say you work like this, then come and win the race with a solid effort. Does the combination of work/race exertion this close together matter or is the recovery up to the Preakness strictly about getting over the Derby?

i think his connections are boneheads and that is a bigger issue to get over then the workout......i like this horse alot but theres a few red flags that go up for me.

He would have been my top pick...but, his connections & the work scared me from doing that.

I hope the condition is sharp.

This guy has to pull a War Emblem. Take the lead and grab the rail so Street Sense has to go around him. War Emblem forced Perfect Drift to go outside of him, cause I rememebr Perfect Drift comming hard along the rail.

I believe this is all Street Sense, Hard Spun.

Agree with this. While traditional prep methods are losing favor, they have been all over the place with this guy.

Hard Spun was a bit of a puzzle for me, but at the end of the day I decided that I don't think he is a win candidate, and not all that likely to hit the board even.
three things that bother me;
1) hasn't faced top competition, in fact avoided it.

2) the only time he faced some adversity, and had to be asked for everything and dig deep down, there was not much there. yes he was on the wrong part of the track but these were not top class horses, and for a moment he worked himself into competition but then could hold his position against forty Grams, and Officer Rocket. how much fight will he have when challenged in the Derby against much tougher horses? He doesn't look like a horse that you can fool with during the race. He doesn't like to be held, and he doesn't really have a kick either if pushed. He runs his best like in the Lanes End just letting him run. In the derby I like horses that have proven themselves in battle more, that are not so one dimensional, that can be rated a little if need be, and that have something in reserve when called upon.

3) The Lanes End looked to be a fantastic race. The only thing that bothers me is that this was a career best race for Hard Spun, Sedgefield, and Joe Got Even. Why did they all move up at the same time on that day? Why did Sedgefield finish within 3 lengths of Hard Spun that day? For Sedgefield it was a huge jump, like 5 TG points, 11 point jump on Bris. In his next race he fell back to earth big time. Something is odd there and if I don't believe that the Lanes End result was truly legit, then I can't play Hard Spun because the rest of his record doesn't do it for me.

Thats my take, boy will I look dumb if he runs like so many seem to think!

Didn't this happen before -- where the horse worked extra fast and Mario said he misjudged it because the horse was moving so easy? Or am I thinking of someone else? But if I'm right, it'd be nice to know how the horse did in the next race right after that work.

His line looks really good to me. He is a must use. No question about it.

Yeah, with a little colt that was born not far from you ;)

Oh...yeah. But I meant, didn't it happen before with Hard Spun?

He came out of the work very well. If anything, that work may take some of the edge off him. He's bred to get the distance. Must use. Particularly if we see mud. The closers will be buried in it.

Like the horse, wary of the jock

I figured you were going to say "(Horse X) has no shot."

I am worried by a jockey that cant tell how fast he is going. I understand that there are some jocks that are not great in the mornings that are fine in the races but very few of those win the derby

Have you used Pino before? Any success with him?

He's won what, 6,000 races. He's far from incompetent, although the comment of "I didn't realize how fast he was going" is worrysome.

Living in Maryland Mario is pretty well thought of on this circuit as a cagey middle aged jock with almost 5000 wins I think Chuck....

Do I have this wrong??? I mean is he considered top 10 or did he take his career as far as it could have gone?? Probably not but is he really that much of a liability because of the missed time???

Is there any chance that this was the plan all along to train this horse hard for 5 F thinking because his breeding seems to imply decent pedigree for 12 panels that the sheepish "I didn't think it was that fast" is just Pino playing possum and working us all. Was Carl obviously pissed at Mario ove rthe workout or was it less obvious trainer and jock were on the wrong page?

Carl was probably happy with the work since he trains Street Sense! I just think that a jockey that does not ride in these types of races on a regular basis is more likely to screw up than one who does regardless of how many races they have won. It is a very tricky race to ride in because it is unlike any other. This year is really hard to figure because the pace picture is still unsettled.

Please excuse the Carl for Larry typo. What an idiot I am regularly.....geez

Jim,

I think you pretty much have Hardspun Pegged. Not a win contender, the breakdown you made is logical, and an off the board is in sight. Couldnt agree more.

Keep in mind a guy who has had live mounts several times hasn't even gotten a sniff, in fact I don't think he's even hit the board. (Johnny V)

I don't think Pino will "screw up", if the horse is good enough he will win, if he isn't he won't.

Okay, I buy some of your arguments, but judging Hard Spun's performance in the Lanes End based on what Sedgefield did in a TURF race the next time out in which he was running on 12 days rest and hung like a cheap suit is stretching it. How about the fact that Dominican ran in the race prior, and blitzed that field, yet still ran 3-4 lengths slower than Hard Spun did?

I have to believe the Lanes End was legit. He was the only Derby contender to run a :23 1st quarter and a sub :38 final 3. Plenty of these horses can do one or the other, but not both.

I'm not so much basing my opinion on what Sedgefield did after the lanes end, although that wasn't encouraging because he had been previously much better on turf. And if I just look at the Lanes End then HS looks great, but there is still the other stuff that bothers me.

My main point with Sedgefield is that his figures jumped up so much in the Lanes End from his prior races. I am suspicious when a race brings back higher figures for everyone.

Dominican did not run the race that day that Hard Spun did, thats for sure. To his credit though it was his first start of the year after the equipment change and being off 4 months. When he came back in the BG he showed that he can kick home better than several of the top horses including Street Sense, although the way the race was run obscured any hope of finding out how fast he could have run, and the fact that it was on poly obscures what his dirt form might be like. Also the way I saw him gracefully veering out to avoid trouble without losing any momentum makes me think he has the agility to overcome obstacles in the derby.

I think Dominican might be sitting on a huge effort, and the price will be nice because of the obscured form that I mentioned, which is why I was touting him to be at least on the board. With Dominicans bad draw however i've lowered my expectations for him a bit.

Larry Jones took Hard Spun out to graze on Tuesday and Hard Spun was very lively. He refused to graze in a calm manner. Larry Jones was quoted saying "maybe we should have worked him more yesterday!"

I think this horse has tons of speed built up that he is ready to get out. He is my top pick.

I don't think that you can take into account what a jockey and trainer say a week before the biggest race of your life. I mean wouldn't you want your secret weapons kept under your belt until the big dance?

Well you've sold me. I'm putting $25,000 across on him.

I also think Dominican may be sitting on a big effort, the bad draw is obviously a concern but his style isn't as much a deterrent from out there. I like his chances to hit the board at a square price.

The "ultimate equipment change" is something more trainers/owners need to consider. It has turned this guy from a talented but unmanageable colt (see the KYJC) to a "graceful" (a very good description) runner. Unfortunately for the game, the goolies are the value in today's society...

Good...glad to be of help.

That is a seriously good point. We'll know what happened if Spun is leading by 10 going into the clubhouse turn :D .

Dominican got a chance if they decide to run on POLY

Yeah, no horse has ever duplicated good poly form on dirt.:rolleyes:

Not saying that just saying if it wad run on Poly he would be 4 for 4 on it

That was 'unmanageable ridgling,' one testicle not descended, deemed to have been causing abdominal discomfort. Sometimes they leave the descended one, but with this one they took both.

......dont overthink, its just a horse race. i remember ferdinand worked 58 flat, thats
before churchill was santa anita east.......he won rather easy;)

You know it's a crap shoot....I think Hard Spun is as good as any horse in the field...One thing about the work that doesn't bother me is it's been a while since he raced and he was a handfull. So the 57 and 3 cured some of that, no doubt....but he has apparently been full of himself since as well, so they might be sitting on a monster....who knows....I am still amazed that he's 15/1 on the m/l. I just don't understand it and will be amazed if he isn't close to or even the betting fav at post time.....

I'm starting to worry about a faster than expected pace.

You think that Hard Spun is going to gun to the front? Maybe Teuflesberg will loaf around and wire the field. :rolleyes: :D

Well, if we get the Nobiz like Shobiz of the Wood, he's going to be at or near the lead, I'm guessing. THere are plenty of horses here who probably won't have the opportunity to run their usual race. (Yes, I know, Captain Obvious here.)

Dominican has actually repeated his Churchill effort three back twice on the poly, same three numbers. I actually have him as a board contender now, orginally thought he was a rat but he isn't