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-   -   Rags to Riches/Belmont try? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12667)

tiznowthegreat 05-02-2007 11:32 AM

Rags to Riches/Belmont try?
 
Does anybody else find it comical that she is 5/2 on the ML?

What do you all think she will go off at?

slotdirt 05-02-2007 11:49 AM

You know, are her speed figures really that good? This field looks more competitive than I initially thought...

Bigsmc 05-02-2007 11:51 AM

I wouldn't take less than even money in this race.

She will not be a single on my P4 ticket.

whodey17 05-02-2007 11:52 AM

Rags To Riches is no lock. This is a very good field with very competitive speed figures. I think that 5/2 in a 14 hore field is about right. I really like Octave in here.

philcski 05-02-2007 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
You know, are her speed figures really that good? This field looks more competitive than I initially thought...

Forget the speed figures. Does she stand out when you consider the fact that (a) she's only got 4 career starts, (b) never left Cali, (c) comes in off an 8 week layoff, and (d) the fillies behind her have not done anything of note to validate the performances?

5/2, 3-1 is fair value. Even money (or less) is not.

PPerfectfan 05-02-2007 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
Forget the speed figures. Does she stand out when you consider the fact that (a) she's only got 4 career starts, (b) never left Cali, (c) comes in off an 8 week layoff, and (d) the fillies behind her have not done anything of note to validate the performances?

5/2, 3-1 is fair value. Even money (or less) is not.

That is why I am going to try and beat her in this spot. Who wants to eat chalk?? I think she is the best filly by far, but this is a race to try and beat her in. And some of the fillies that are in this race are nice fillies.

philcski 05-02-2007 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I won't be betting her at such a short price either, but come on, she's a huge standout. Who has run fast enough to beat her?

I have a strong feeling she may regress off the SA efforts when faced with a real horse race. IF she runs her race, it's all over, she will win by 3, but if she takes a step or two back and another takes a step forward, suddenly the event becomes a lot different.

Those eligible to move forward at a price (taking into account the mile and an eighth, pace, etc.): High Heels, Dreaming of Anna, Tough Tiz's Sis, Autobahn Girl, Sealy Hill.

Thunder Gulch 05-02-2007 12:44 PM

If you don't look at the names and the hype surrounding this one now, the pp's don't show her to be that exceptional compared to the competition. Yes, she's the deserving favorite, but taking 2-1 or less from an outside post in a 14 horse field is really problematic.

sundaysilenceforever 05-02-2007 12:51 PM

I love Rags, and think she will win. But at a price I like High Again, with High Heels and Octave. Kinda concerned about the distance for Sealy Hill.

blackthroatedwind 05-02-2007 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
If you don't look at the names and the hype surrounding this one now, the pp's don't show her to be that exceptional compared to the competition. Yes, she's the deserving favorite, but taking 2-1 or less from an outside post in a 14 horse field is really problematic.

Her pps don't tell the whole story. You should do yourself a favor and watch her race two back. It's really something.

To be honest I felt similarly to you until I watched her races.

declansharbor 05-02-2007 01:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Her pps don't tell the whole story. You should do yourself a favor and watch her race two back. It's really something.

To be honest I felt similarly to you until I watched her races.

Was that the race where GG had her in the 6-7 path the whole trip?? If so, that was one of the more impressive performances by a filly this year..

sundaysilenceforever 05-02-2007 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Was that the race where GG had her in the 6-7 path the whole trip?? If so, that was one of the more impressive performances by a filly this year..

By almost ANY horse this year, male or female. I am excited to see how she does in this stronger field. What a great race it will be!

ArlJim78 05-02-2007 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Her pps don't tell the whole story. You should do yourself a favor and watch her race two back. It's really something.

To be honest I felt similarly to you until I watched her races.

agree 100%, the race you refer to was unreal. As much as I was impressed with Curlins 2 turn debut, RTR running 3-4 wide on both turns, at Santa Anita, and running down more experienced fillies was a real jaw dropper.

ArlJim78 05-02-2007 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I don't get it

don't worry, you're not alone.

Cajungator26 05-02-2007 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I don't get it

She's saying that people who drop a horse because of the odds are idiots. She referenced Ouija Board (who was an obvious single.) I don't know of many on here who DIDN'T use Ouija Board, but whatever... maybe Gander tossed her? LOL

KY_Sasquash 05-02-2007 02:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski
I have a strong feeling she may regress off the SA efforts when faced with a real horse race. IF she runs her race, it's all over, she will win by 3, but if she takes a step or two back and another takes a step forward, suddenly the event becomes a lot different.

Those eligible to move forward at a price (taking into account the mile and an eighth, pace, etc.): High Heels, Dreaming of Anna, Tough Tiz's Sis, Autobahn Girl, Sealy Hill.


I think Rags will win in a jog if the track is fast. Im tossing Anna though, dont like her, i do like Autobahn Girl and Tough Tiz's Sis underneath and will play a few backup tickets with them on top

hockey2315 05-02-2007 02:38 PM

Can someone with the PPs tell me who the speed in the race is please? Thanks. . .

Cajungator26 05-02-2007 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Okay, now I get it. I see her point, just couldn't understand what she wrote.

3 and a half years of deciphering and I can sometimes get it. :o

miraja2 05-02-2007 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Can someone with the PPs tell me who the speed in the race is please? Thanks. . .

Dreaming of Anna and Mistical Plan will most likely be on or near the lead. But there is no need to take my word for it, because the PPs are free on DRF.com this week.
Here you go: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07kentuckyoaks.pdf
Personally I think this race is pretty wide open. I think Rags is a bit overrated, and there are 3 or 4 others here that wouldn't surprise me at all.

miraja2 05-02-2007 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26
3 and a half years of deciphering and I can sometimes get it. :o

The "words" like causve and mustve tend to throw me off.

hockey2315 05-02-2007 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2
Dreaming of Anna and Mistical Plan will most likely be on or near the lead. But there is no need to take my word for it, because the PPs are free on DRF.com this week.
Here you go: http://www.drf.com/row/pps/07kentuckyoaks.pdf
Personally I think this race is pretty wide open. I think Rags is a bit overrated, and there are 3 or 4 others here that wouldn't surprise me at all.

Thanks. . . I'll be using Mistical Plan, Cotton Blossom, and Dreaming of Anna in my Derby doubles. . .

slotdirt 05-02-2007 03:52 PM

Anybody see the Aegon Turf entries? Those characters certainly deserve themselves a Breeders Cup race. Mighty Beau and Sgt. Bert!

Cannon Shell 05-03-2007 04:00 PM

Rags to riches will be 4/5

She is a better bet at 4/5 than Curlin is at 7/2

whorstman 05-03-2007 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt
You know, are her speed figures really that good? This field looks more competitive than I initially thought...


I totally agree, there seems to be several in here that can challenge her. I'm going to try and beat her myself.

Cannon Shell 05-03-2007 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by whorstman
I'm going to try and beat her myself.

There is no way you are fast enough

zippyneedsawin 05-03-2007 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
There is no way you are fast enough


LOL!! I bet he's carrying more weight too!!

Cajungator26 05-03-2007 04:13 PM

I don't know if anyone (including whorstman) is going to beat Rags, but I will be using Rags, Cotton Blossom, Octave, High Heels and Dreaming of Anna. I think Pletcher has this Oaks in the bag.

randallscott35 05-03-2007 04:48 PM

I think she will win and I wouldn't bet her. Not a good enough price. I will sit out.

smuthg 05-03-2007 05:07 PM

I was at Oaklawn for the Fantasy; Cotton Blossom and Cash Included didn't have a chance... Rags maybe a superstar, but I wouldn't snooze on High Heels.

whorstman 05-03-2007 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell
There is no way you are fast enough

Oh, you havn't seen me in the club! I can flat stalk some fillies! :D

ArlJim78 05-03-2007 05:47 PM

I think it's kinda foolish to try to beat Rags here. Anything can happen but she is quite the beast.

jdm 05-03-2007 05:59 PM

I can see, just as the whole world does, how veryone thinks Rags to Riches is. I've seen two of her races, yet those races were her's before they started. They set up perfect for her. I can't see her as dominating this field, in fact I believe her stable mate is going to beat her. Cotton Blossom is going to run huge. She's sitting on a big one, her Oaklawn race was extremely good. Johnny V proved once again he's a slightly above average jockey, not one of the best.... Dreaming of Anna and Mistical Plan also have big chances, as long as they decide not to tear each other to pieces on the front, this race is paceless. Rags doesn't have chumps to run by this time around. These 3 gals will definitely make her work for it.


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