Why do I like AGS so much?
 

I like him and I don't know why. He has the running style that I like I think. He has a great race thrown in with a subpar right before the Derby. The only thing is if J.V. is riding him I'll stay away at all cost. I also like Street Sense because he has the Thunder Gulch look in the Blues Grass. Barely a hard run for the horse and has that turn it up on a dime button I think. I'll put these two on top of the usual 7-10 in tri's and Execta's and Hope for the best.

Gomez is riding AGS. JV will be aboard CQ.

JV is riding Circular Quay. Garrett Gomez is riding Any Given Saturday.

You might like him because he has shown the ability to run a fast race.
Most of the field has not.

And Prado is up on the winner again. :D

Oh really? I thought he was still on Scat Daddy. Guess not. :D

It's hard to like a horse that as never been over 5-1 in his life. I mean .. what kinda adversity has he ever faced. I know this is really weak rationale but hey... he must've been in some easy races or races that looked easy

They didn't take him to Gulfstream, they took him to Tampa Bay. Then when it looked like Street Sense was going good they switched plans and tried him against Nobiz

Did Nobiz look like he was easier to beat and AGS needs everything to be easy
?

SS is my horse. I know he had a prep at Tam but it was his first race back and need a easier start first out. IMSO

Maybe you can tell me why you like AGS. I would really like to know. honest

Scat Daddy has the proper number of syllables but don't know what to think about working out with Bar shoes?

What? I am not saying he is going to be the winner, but I don't follow your logic here one bit. Who cares what his odds were in other races? You thought his Tampa Bay Derby was easy because he was the favorite? He was in a stretch battle with the 2yo champ!
Honestly, your post doesn't make any sense to me at all.

I think AGS is a one-paced dog who will show his cards on Saturday when he finishes 8th.

Well he's raced from off the pace early in his career. I think he likes it more than being put in the race before he's ready.
71 beyer in Maiden score out of the 11 hole
2nd race Kee 1 1/16 Sweeping 5 wide rally
100 beyer to Tizwonderfull by 1/2 length
95 beyer in 3 yearold debut 1:44 ridden out
102 Beyer loss by a nose in 1:43
Then he throws in the Wood Clunker. I'm the greatest Handicapper of all time and I have an off day from time to time. ha ha ha

yes, for the Tampa Bay Derby he was in a stretch battle with a short horse. He has been favored in almost every race. ie - no on else was supposed to be good enough to beat him and he still lost. I can't remember all of his races. Just a different derby angle - guess you think it needs work.

:(

Ummmm yeah a little. I think considering level of competition is wise, but I think AGS has actually faced pretty good competition both last year and this year. Does that mean he will win on Saturday? No, but I don't think the fact that he has "never been over 5-1 in his lifetime" is a good reason to toss him.

I think AGS had no shot in the WOOD. Todd P. wasn't pointing for that spot if you recall. He went to get the 75k he needed to get in and that turned out to be brilliant because he could of easily ran 5th in the BG. Here's to hoping the AGS, SS exacta pays over $80.

Well Pletcher sent Bluegrass Cat to Tampa last year and we saw how that turned out. . . Those two horses seem pretty similar to me. . .

Well, how much competition can there be with 6 starts with a maiden and allowance race that leaves 4 races and it's not his fault who shows up in his race.

there's 20 horses. I have to broaden my rationale.

So what if they didn't take him to Gulfstream? What are you implying? That he isn't as good as Pletcher's other horses, otherwise he would've taken him to GP? Perhaps he didn't want to throw in a three-start horse against his more seasoned charge in Scat Daddy and another superstar in Nobiz..

I wholeheartedly disagree. At first, I was annoyed that Pletcher decided to take him off the pace, but after discussing it with Steve, we agreed that it's probably a better idea than sending him. I think he's got the best shot of the Pletcher quintet to win.

I seldom cash but I'm too stubborn to listen to anyone else.

I guess those are sound reasons to play him. I will probably put him in it if the price is right. (15-1 +) Just not too excited about his last 2 preps.
Including the TB Derby.

Street Sense pulled ahead of him in the Tampa Derby and he came right back at him. I think he was ahead of after the wire a jump or two. I'd like to see him settle a little and come with his run. He came home in the Wood alittle sideways but he came over come that with good training. I think he and Street Sense are my picks barring a bad Derby Draw.

He's without a doubt my second choice in the race behind Street Sense. I think he's got a great shot in the Derby and the price will be right given the clunker in the Wood.

If you are beyer person then you can see a pattern in AGS beyers - 80-100-95-102-92. If this pattern holds true, then AGS should run a beyer in the 100's on Derby day. He has one start at CD and finsihed 2nd to Tiz Wonderful beaten 1/2 length. The things below are all good signs as well (except for the RAN)

Pedigree
Sire Distorted Humor
Dosage Index 2.67
Center of Distribution 0.73
Raise a Native in male line Yes
Highest Dosage points in "Classic" wing Yes

2-year-old factors
Experimental Free Handicap 119
Dual Qualifier Yes
Raced as a 2-year-old Yes
Won as a 2-year-old Yes
Raced a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Won at a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Three to seven races as a 2-year-old Yes

AGS doesn't have RAN in his dam's sire line. It's actually considered a very GOOD thing to have RAN in the sire line.

You are so correct. Thanks for reminding me.

I love this horse's chances... I like Scat Daddy more (more sentimental than anything :o ), but I'm nervous about Scat Daddy having the RAN curse. :eek:

I would be nervous betting a horse who doesnt have a beyer in the 100's. He has improved his beyers in each race in 2007.....93-95-98. I personally dont like him in this spot, however I do like the horse.

Pedigree
Sire Johannesburg
Dosage Index 2.47
Center of Distribution 0.81
Raise a Native in male line Yes
Highest Dosage points in "Classic" wing Yes

2-year-old factors
Experimental Free Handicap 123
Dual Qualifier Yes
Raced as a 2-year-old Yes
Won as a 2-year-old Yes
Raced a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Won at a mile or more as a 2-year-old Yes
Three to seven races as a 2-year-old Yes
Stakes win as a 2-year-old Yes

I'll jump in Packer and say I like him as well. And like a few people in this thread, I like he and Street Sense best of all Saturday.

He's a little bit of a hanger, but he did fight back on SS in the TBD.

I like that he hit 100 in the Beyer Scale as a Two Year Old.
I like that he got his bounce race out of the way in the Wood.
I like that he's bred to run all day.
I like he took a more traditional route to the Derby. Not trying to buck 100 trends.
I like Pletcher. I love the switch to Gomez.

I don't like the hanger factor. I don't like that he has not show an "explosive" stretch drive since last year but I think he might be sitting on a big one.

All that being said, if he's the "wise guy" horse as has been mentioned elsewhere and he's 7-1 or something like that, I'll have to hit the re-evaluate button.

His race in the Wood wasn't exactly a "clunker". He was 4 wide after breaking alertly on the clubhouse turn (tough to do in a 6 horse field, even with the short run) and 3 wide on the 2nd turn. He tried the winner at the top of the stretch, and when he couldn't get by and got passed by Sightseeing JV shut him down, so the margin of loss was a little higher than it should have been.
My concern with the Wood was the come-home time was less than stellar.

He has a very good chance to hit the board IMO.