Early HOY predictions
 

I like Bernardini, but think Rathor has a shot. I am rooting for Barbaro though.

Flower Alley - scenario is simpe...dont lose Whitney, Woodward, JCGC (if he goes), BC Classic - win HOY

The rest have to hope that he loses

I think Rathor could beat him and am fairly certain Bernardini will be the horse to beat in the BC Classic.

Yep - I agree 100%

Bellamy Road or Lava Man.

So hard to tell right now.....but if I had to bet I'd go with Flower Alley. Too bad they don't do future wagers for HOY.
Barbaro? No way.

The ball is in Lava Man's court. If he wins 2-3 more races at the Grade 1 level this year and runs 1st or 2nd in the BC Classic he wins, unless Flower Alley wins the 3 grade 1's he is aiming towards- Whitney, Jockey Club and BC Classic. If Flower Alley is the horse to defeat Lava Man in the BC Classic and Lava Man runs 2nd, Lava Man still wins HOY.

I dont give any 3 year old any shot at HOY except for Showing Up. Not crazy about Bernardini winning anymore than 1 grade 1 and that wont be enough.

Now if Showing Up were to stay on grass and win 3 grade 1's including a BC race, he would be HOY.

:D

Are you the guy on finalturn that thinks Showing Up is Secretariat? Showing Up isn't winning horse of the year no matter what. Turf Eclipse award is actually a real possibility after watching him saturday, maybe even 3yr old if he does what you said with all the grade 1's, but HOY is for dirt horses. I too like Lava Man but watch out for Bellamy Road.

You can bet futures on the BC Classic in vegas.

No I dont post on any other sight.

Bellamy Road, HOY? Hes got a lot of work to do to get that. I think hes a cut below the top horses.

Flower Alley

Tim you are way off. IF Flower Alley wins the BCC he is HOY, makes no difference who runs 2nd. Lava Man is noones hero after beating the awful competition that he has so far except yours. I think you are way overboard on him.

I will throw one in there--Deep Impact. If this horse wins the Arc and maybe he comes to Louisville and wins the classic then I cannot see how you cant vote him as HOY. But like Oracle said--Flower Alley. It is his to loose.

Your right. He could probably not beat Gold and Roses and Network.

Tim noone is saying that he couldnt. But please tell me who he has beaten so far this year? Know who? The very horses you make fun of and ridcule all the time. And last time I checked FA won the Travers and placed in the BCC last year and that credibility carries over. I'm sorry but only winning in Cali isnt gonna cut it.

Those races have nothing to do with this year Mike, they were run last year. If they do then the whole award is meaningless anyways.

Lava Man has beating nothings, I wont deny it. :D
But hes done it on 2 surfaces.

No Tim they don't count towards this year but your post was kind of silly. You are making it out like FA never won at the very highest level or played well there. Lava Man never has. That was his comeback race and if you are a smart trainer you dont throw back into the fire off a long layoff. YOu build their fitness up a race at a time. The Whitney is his next stop, and the WHitney is more prestigious than any race that lava man has ever won. Purse money isn't prestige, and the WHitney is absolutely the most prestigious race you can win with a horse outside the TRi Crown races or the BCC. Past winners include: Equipoise, Discovery(3 times), War Admiral, Stymie, Tom Fool, Kelso(3 times), Dr ***er, Key To The Mint, Alydar, Slew O Gold, Lady's Secret, Java Gold, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer, Criminal Type(not as big a name as these but still voted HOY that year), Awesome Again, Victory Gallop, Lemon Drop Kid, Left Bank, etc. The roster of horses who lost the Whitney is just as impressive. Last years HOY St Liam was defeated there and a little old horse named Secretariat lost it as well as many others.
When you win the Whitney, you join history and certainly vault to the head of the class if you any prior form whatsoever.
What I'm saying is that if Flower Alley wins the WHitney he is DEFINITELY in the drivers seat. Any notion that if he wins the WHitney that he is chasing Lava Man and that Lava could beat him for HOY by running 2nd in the BCC is purely delusional.

If Bernardini wins the Haskell, Travers, JC Gold Cup and BC Classic - which is possible with his talent - then I think he is your horse....

...I have a gut feeling that Sinister Minister will be tough on the lead in the Haskell and could prove hard to reel in if allowed to run off early, but Bernardini is a better horse....the Travers is the target and he should be ultr-tough there....wins in the Travers and Haskell makes him favored over Flower Alley in the JC Gold Cup IMO, and I still belive he is the mosty talented horse and can beat his elders in the BC Classic at year's end.......we'll see...

Flower Alley if he stays healthy.

I think Bernardini is going to the Jim Dandy. SM will fight it out with Brother Derek in the Haskell.

I'm a big fan of Bellamy Road but I think there is only a 50/50 chance that he will ever make it back to the races. He did work 3 furlongs last week but a friend of mine who is familiar with the horse's ailments does not think that BM will ever make it back.

I'd say 50/50 is an overstatement. With only 2 works the EARLIEST he could return is late July, with mid-August being more likely. No horse SHOULD win the HOY with only 3 races, so I would think he's got no shot...

My friend did not say that the chances are 50/50 of the horse running in the BC Classic. He said the chances are only 50/50 of the horse ever running again.

If Bellamy Road wins HOY, I will never watch racing again.

I seriously doubt he will even be a contender. Smart move having the FARM MANAGER train him. What are his *ailments* anyway?

As for Lava Man, I think he needs to win outside of California first.

He will definitely 100% be back.

Don't believe everything you read. That horse is alive and kicking.

I won't!

I'll believe it when I see it. ;)

How do you know that? I know they are trying to bring him back and they will do whatever they can to bring him back, but that doesn't mean he will make it back. By the way, after he worked 3 furlongs in :40, he didn't work again until 19 days later. That's certainly not a good sign.
There is no horse that you can tell me will run again for a 100% fact. Horses are fragile. Even with a sound horses who has been running regularly, you don't know for a 100% fact that the horse will run again. Any horse can have a career ending injury at any time. There is never a 100% chance that any horse will run again, let alone a horse that is coming back from an injury.

I don't know exactly what was wrong with BM. I know he came out of the Derby with a splint injury. He came back a few months later and only ran once and got hurt again. I think he popped a splint in his other leg but I can't remember.
Anyway, even if he makes it back I highly doubt he will be the same horse. My friend says that there is no way the horse will make it back. I'll ask him what the exact problem is and why he is so sure that the horse will not make it back.

I would think that is a more serious injury than a popped splint. I know any injury can be devastating to a race horse, but I have experienced popped splints with my show horses and they do not make them go lame for an extended period of time. My show horses are usually back to their regular training regimen within a month depending on the individual animal and the circumstances. I do hope to see BR back because I really liked this horse, but I just don't think that it is going to happen.

Yes, I'm sure you are right because he was supposed to be back a long time ago. They acted like he would be back in a few months after the Travers. Here we are over 10 months later and he only has two 3 furlong works.
A friend of mine saw BM up close in the Travers. He told me that the horse's ankle was all shaved and you could see that they were doing a lot of work on it.

I don't think Bernardini will run in the Haskell, but your point is well taken, Cunningham. To be honest, I'm getting very frustrated because it seems as if Barbaro has the 3 year old Eclipse wrapped up before even half the season is over. Writers like Steve Haskin (who loves Bernardini) are saying that Bernardini will have to win the Travers (agreed), a big fall race (Jockey Club?) AND the Classic in order to win the Eclipse. IMO, that's unfair and I don't get it. If Bernardini wins the Travers and a race against older horses and say, runs well in the Classic, how has his year not been better than Barbaro? Right now, Barbaro has won the Holy Bull, Florida Derby and KY Derby. Bernardini has won the Preakness and Withers. The Withers/Holy Bull cancel each other out, so Bernardini is one grade 1 behind Barbaro. The Travers is more prestigious by far than the Florida Derby, and races against older horses speak for themselves. I agree that Barbaro has the edge now (Bernardini still has to do it on the track, no matter how confident I am in his ability), but I think it would be a travesty for Bernardini (for example -but same applies to, say, Jazil) to lose the Eclipse because of sentiment. The voters are human, though, and they love Barbaro.

Gander, I recall someone saying he didn't care who was in the race that a Grade 1 is a Grade 1........................ So I guess that a Grade 1 really isn't the same if it's in California and the purse money doesn't mean squat. Well if they are really that good they can come and get the easy Lava Man as they prep for the BCC. Right now it's LAVA MAN. Flower Alley needs to come out running and winning, again and again and again to win HOY. If all goes well he will have some Lava Man along the way. May the best horse win.

Well, I think Darley's original plans had Discreet Cat going Dwyer then Haskell and Bernardini going Jim Dandy then Travers, obviously keeping them apart as long as possible...but, now that Discreet Cat has defected for the Dwyer and the Haskell looks much in doubt at this poin t for that colt, I seriously think that it would be hard for Darley to turn down the invite for the $1 million Grade I at the Shore over a Gr. II at the Spa....money is not of object with those people - obviously - but still, now that Discreet Cat is out they may take a second look at the Haskell for Bernardini....I would....BTW, Sweetnorthernsaint is Haskell bound too...

Nice post...I couldn't agree more...I have never had a vote in the Eclipse ballots but know dumb media that has and have been APPAULED at some of their votes and agendas behind their votes at times......it can be a joke....there have been MANY Eclipse winners in the past few years that were the wrong horses/people IMO...

Sounds good Holy Bull, glad you found your way over from ESPN, I thought you were still sore over USC being embarassed like they were, glad you have gotten over it and moved back into society again.

If the dirt horses take turns beating each other, then a turfer can get HOY. HOY was there for Slew O Gold in '84 but he lost in the BCC letting John Henry slip in. In '93 (?) had Bertrando not lost the BCC to Arcangues, he would have been HOY but Kotashan won it with his superior year on the turf.

HOY???? Surf Cat of course.:D :D :D :eek:

Thanks, Cunningham. I know I'm biased towards Bernardini because I personally love him. At this point, I've decided that it's too early to get aggravated. If Bernardini performs as expected, he'll win many big races and will get the credit he deserves; that's really all I can ask for. He's still not getting (on other boards) the respect he should get even for his Preakness (he only won because Brother Derek and SNS were injured/tired/over the top), so I can't wait until Saratoga (or the Haskell, wherever he goes) and he gets to prove himself all over again.

I cant think of too much opposition Flower Alley will have to contend with in the Whitney. Maybe Suave, Perfect Drift, Seek Gold, possibly Buzzard Bay.

Its his home track and he'll be 3/5 and he'll probably romp like he did in last year's gerbil infested Jim Dandy.

What will that prove? Why is this anymore important than Lava Man beating a couple of past grade 1 winners on the turf, who werent at the top of their fomr cycle? Because its a race rich with tradition? Please. What does the history of the Whitney have to do with identifying this year's HOY?

We will see who comes and takes on Flower Alley in the Whitney. Then we will see how Lava Man does out West.