Scat Daddy
 

I have been reading and following the board now for several weeks regarding all of the Derby talk and potential winners, favorites, etc. Why is it that Scat Daddy is getting little talk as far as being a legit contender?

Granted I am pretty green when it comes to the ponies as I have only been wagering and following the sport for about 2 years. But I have witnessed this horse in person win the Fountain of Youth and Fl Derby. I thought they were failry impressive victories. Am I not seeing something in these races or this horse that would dismiss these wins??

I think when he ran 4th in the BC, and then 3rd in the Holy Bull, a lot of fans dismissed him, I personally think he is the KD winner, and I might get 9-1 Derby Day.

He won't hit the board. . .

that is great, but my question is why is this horse not getting any love? I am not debating, just trying to figure out what I may not be seeing. Anyone can throw out predictions like "he wont hit the board"

He's too slow.

His entire career has been consistent....consistently good but far from superior. He's possibly the most glaring sucker horse in this Derby.

My two cents...worth about 1/2 of one.

My problem is his route to the Derby...last prep 5wks out in Florida worked once so far last year and I think we all can agree that Barbaro was pretty special. I'm not willing to throw him out underneath but I never liked a horse coming out of Florida for his last race, looking elsewhere.

Problem is that seems to be the case with most of the field. Other than Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and Curlin I don't see anyone else that much faster than Scat Daddy. I won't be playing him in the win spot on Derby Day but will definitely be including him underneath.

I don't particularly disagree but it feels like his odds are lower than his actual chances of winning. He is a model of consistency, and not only does that make him slower than at least a few serious contenders, it also makes him less likely to dramatically improve. To me he is somewhat reminiscent of Lawyer Ron, or High Fly, in that he's clearly talented but also clearly slower than more than a few, and will take real money.

Not that I am endorsing him, but I feel like Tiago is in some ways a more likely winner, in that he COULD improve. I also feel like he is likely to lose to Scat Daddy but I am not sure he isn't a likelier winner of the race.

Nobiz is faster when not running all over the track in the strech. I don't buy Curlin yet, if he beats me in the Derby so be it, then I will be a believer in him. I concur that Scat Daddy is just slower, but people say Nobiz is too. I do think Scat Daddy will be the best finisher of all the Pletch horses, I just don't think he will be in the top 3, maybe not even 4.

Tiago will be on every Triple and Super I play. I feel he will improve, and even if he does not get the dream trip he did in his last, he will still be able to get up for a piece.

I have consistently underestimated this colt, so it is certainly possible that I am doing it again......but I don't like his chances to be in the exacta. You say you think his FOY was "impresive." Well, in some ways it WAS a very credible win. He came 3-4 wide in a 9f, G2 race (with a field of nine) and won.
However, he was all-out that day to beat a real quitter at 9f in Stormello, and he was actually GETTING weight from Stormello on that day. He ran a 95 BSF that day (which is pretty much his top effort) and while that is certainly respectable, I don't really see a reason to expect any more from him going 10f. In fact, I don't really see anything in his past performances or pedigree to suggest that he will like 10f, or improve much from what he is right now.
He is a solid stakes horse.....but I don't think he is a classic-winner.

Tiago is my fifth choice (behind Nobiz). Sam P is another sleeper I think could hit the board if they take the blinkers off and get him off the pace.

I think these are very apt comparisons.

Yeah, I guess the credible counter argument is that those two met arguably more intimidating fields but they do seem like very comparable horses.

I don't want to marry myself to anyone before really looking at the pps but right now Sam P interests me as well. Some of it may be that I always thought he had potential when he broke his maiden at Saratoga but he also feels like the only horse coming into this Derby who ran much better in his final prep than it looks on paper.

Yeah, he comes from off the pace there and he is probably the Santa Anita Derby winner rather than Tiago. I'm normally not into watching pre-Derby works but he is one horse I'll be watching closely. If it looks like they are working him to rate then I'll be very interested. If they are working him alone in bullet times then I want nothing to do with him in the Derby.

I disagree.

I think we have established this tig...er...cajun:p

This isn't a field of world beaters, that's for sure. At least Barbaro stood out to me last year as the winner... that's not really the case this year. Street Sense is the only one that really seems to have it, but I'm concerned about the two prep approach for him.

While I don't like his chances and won't be betting him, Curlin definitely seems to have "it"- whatever that is. . . Scat Daddy is probably Pletcher's 3rd stringer and doesn't seem to be improving much. . . I just can't see moving up enough to beat the horses in here who seem to have more potential. . .

I just can't see Curlin as having 'it' yet... 3 starts doesn't equal 'it' for me... sorry.

I think Steve has mentioned on DT Live that Scat Daddy is actually the "bell of Pletcher's barn" and that he loves him.

Maybe talent-wise he's a third stringer, but seems like TP is a fan.

Nick Zito said the same thing about Sun King before the Derby.. Didn't make him any more of a winner.

Sun King was horribly off form going into that Derby, he ended up going off at almost 30-1 (and he ran like it...) At least in the case of Scat Daddy he's coming in off close to a career best effort.

I think High Fly is an excellent comparison. A very good, gritty colt who found ways to win with less than spectacular speed figures who didn't figure to move up at 10F. That year he was the one I had the most difficulty determining whether to toss him (eventually I came to the conclusion he may end up too close to the pace and fried- at the top of the stretch he was actually the leader) and I feel the same way about Scat Daddy this year. I will probably make some protection bets with him but that's about it.

Tiago? puhllezz he could not hold Scat Dady's jock. Your cash 5/5 is greatly appreciated.

Java OUT

Scat Daddy is a good horse, but there have been distance questions on him for a long time, and the conventional wisdom is that he will not get faster at longer distances. Add to that the fact that he hasn't run a triple digit Beyer, and you don't have a good profile for the Derby.

That said, I think he is as professional and consistent as anyone in here. Put him in the hands of Pletcher and nothing would surprise me. I think he has a good shot at a top 5, but not the win. I'd compare him to More Than Ready.

The real question is who's jock are you currently holding?

Oh wow... LOL

Aren't you the guy who is real high on Cobalt Blue?

You mean this post....under the heading " No need to name 5 "

He has already defeated Level Red AND Air Commander in the same race. :eek:
Clearly he is the class of the crop.

yeah, that's what I thought.

I keep seeing Mr Gold talking about taking peoples money, and offering to be the ticket window for others, however with his money on Cobalt Blue I'm fairly sure that he will be donating money, and not receiving any on derby day.

Aside from of course misconstruing my comments concerning Tiago, probably because of substandard reading skills, he is also looking forward to booking DrugS's action.

Come to think of it, it makes a LOT of sense that he likes Cobalt Blue.

well that clears it up then.

Maybe he saw that he defeated Street Lights, and got it confused with Street Sense.

Seacrest OUT!

Sure thing jimmyboy.... played a few future wagers. Means nothing when it come down to betting 5/5. Be sure to post your selections her prior to the derby as I will for braggin rights... oh yeh your sidekick can as well..

Java OUT

Hey Tony Clifton, you don't mind if I call you by the name you originally used to slander people here, where exactly did I say I liked Tiago?

You know....sort of like where you said you liked Cobalt Blue.

Scat Daddy has one thing that makes me wonder about him. The RAN curse.
Who is going to get faster the farter they go? and if everyone tries to rate who will try and steal it? I mean what if we get a War Emblem track. Anyone that breaks worst than 4th doesn't hit the board.

btw Sam P has never delivered the goods.

it's to bad Hard Spun has been mismanaged.

I'm still looking for a long shot to key I have one in mind but won't committ until after the draw.

Don't worry yourself, I am not one to shy away from posting picks.

Oh I eagerly await the details of your 5/5 wagering.

Nice of you to step up on the comic relief side of things, seeing that PG man has departed the scene.
thanks,

Believe me I'm not singing Sam P's praises. I just feel like he may be one of the better longshots in the race. He's really the only horse coming into this race with reasonable darkened form. To me he was the best horse in the SA Derby and had he won that race his odds would have been a half or even a third of what they are going to be.

On the other hand a stronger argument could probably be made that the SA Derby was a lousy race.