Curlin to be m/l fav
 

While in Cincy this past weekend I heard a radio show with Mike Battaglia as the guest. Battaglia stated that he is leaning towards making Curlin the m/l fav followed by Street Sense and then Circular Quay. Battaglia then went on and said he spoke to Angel Cordero and Cordero assured Battaglia that fitness will not be a problem for Quay. Battaglia also said that Quay is his pick to win the 2007 Derby,

Interesting..
Curlin makes sense to be the M/L fave, followed by Street sense, but I can't believe they would pick Quay as the 3rd fave over Nobiz. I'm a believer in Quay, but I just can't see him being 5-1 on the M/L with that layoff.

All three horses mentioned do not have the foundation to win the Derby.. Until proven wrong I will stick with the same formula that has worked for years & years.

Java OUT

And that would be?

I doubt that the third choice will be 5/1.

I wish Battaglia did the race call for the Derby.

Just what foundation are Street Sense and Circular Quay missing?

Oh, and can you give the formula that has worked for years and years?

He couldn't get through the entire field once before they reached the wire.

I believe Java is one of those that believes that a horse must have 3 preps as a 3yo at 8f or more in order to have the proper foundation to win the Derby.
Personally....I don't think it makes sense to toss any of these three for that reason. Would I like CQ's chances better if he wasn't coming off an 8-week layoff? Yes. But I don't think that makes him an automatic toss. I like his chances more than horses like Scat Daddy or Nobiz, so I think the third choice on the M/L sounds about right.

Yeah, you should never toss a horse based solely on an angle (Barbaro won last year despite the RAN Curse, Giacomo won despite never having a stake win)...the angles that HAVE worked for years can/should at least be considered though (imo):
Among those...
1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby
These have proven to be powerful angles and no horse has broken them for a long time...the last was Sunny's Halo...winner despite only 2 preps in 1983.

Does the field even have a single horse that fits that profile?

Of course! Most of the favorites run afoul of one or more...these are individual angles, not a profile!!

I would prefer Battaglia not make Quay the third choice. I think that the public has a lot of doubts in him with the layoff. Nobiz is a popular horse coming off a win in the Wood.

Not 100% sure that the public would back Nobiz over Quay, but you would think he has a chance.

It becomes a question of what the ML Odds are meant to do - should they reflect the public's likely natural opinion at post time?
OR
- are they supposed to be an accurate estimate of actual win probability?

As a handicapper I would prefer that the morning line reflect the public, rather than be overly accurate. If possible err or exagerate on the side of public opinion!

WTF? He is the worst ever!

I think these trainers are starting to think outside the box, such as what Matz did last year. Would 1 more race make Street Sense a better horse? That's insane. SS, SD, CQ, GH, they all had big 2yr old campaigns, this has provided them with plenty of "foundation". These trainers know what they're doing.

It's not a matter of trainers knowing what they are doing...training is more art than science and any trainer would love to have his/her horse get plenty of 2yo racing and preps. A good trainer does the best he/she can with a given horse, usually plans made in January have changed several times before the first Saturday in May. The angles are mainly a bunch of historical "facts"...if a horse is good enough, he will break any trend...a son of Bold Ruler could never get 12 furlongs I remember folks saying...

Battaglia couldnt get through the entire derby field by the time they go to the gate for the preakness. The worst announcer out there ...hands down.

I'm a fan of CQ, but was expecting 8-1 - 10-1.
Putting him the 3rd choice only makes casual race fans bet him more, which I wasn't counting on.
With Nobiz winning the biggest 3-yo prep in NY, I figured he was a lock to be the 3rd favorite. With all the $$ being bet, it's really not that big of a deal.
I don't think anyone thought SNS would be the post time favorite last year.

With all of the runners, he would probably just keep saying "gaining ground" faster and faster until his head exploded.

I actually think there are quite a few horses in this year's field that fit those four angles.

Wish he would make NoBiz 3rd choice. No way this horse even comes close to winning, until he shows me he does not mind a jockey on his back NO BET for me. I would take Scat Daddy over him


Also if CQ still keeps up his nice workouts would def have to put him in the exotics as the BEST Closer in the race

Yes, there are:
Circular Quay...2 starts
Chelokee...16 dp points
Curlin...3 lt starts, 0 2yo starts
Dominican...16 dp pts, 2 starts
Great Hunter...2 starts
King of the Roxy...10 dp pts, 2 starts
Stormello...2 starts
Street Sense...2 starts
Tiago...4 lt starts
(DP pts...prefer over 16)

OK, it's been a long day so maybe I'm lost, but how does Circular Quay and others fit your angle list with only 2 starts as a 3 year old?

1...3 preps as a three year old
2...raced at two
3...16 points or more in DP
4...at least 5 starts prior to derby

Initially I thought you meant the winner must have all 4, but I'm still wondering how a horse with only 2 preps is fitting your angles.

It's also said that it's an advantage if a horse has more points in the middle category (classic) than the others. I like to see at least 8 points in the classic category. That would leave the following contenders out of the ones that already fit the 4 angles you mentioned (I put the number of points they each have in that classic category after their names):

Any Given Saturday (10)
Cowtown Cat (8)
Hard Spun (24)
Liquidity (14)
Nobiz (12)
Sam P. (14)
Scat Daddy (11)
Sedgefield (11)
Storm in May (11)
Zanjero (8)
Xchanger (12) - if he goes.
Teuflesberg (9) - if he makes it in.

Those are the horses that DON'T fit his angles.

Yeah I realized that but he replied to a guy saying there were a lot of horses who did fit them. (and yes, I initially thought the original poster was saying that all 4 angles needed to be met not just a combo)

I know... I had to read it twice too. I need another pepsi... :o

Coke is better! :p

No way... don't get me started. <:-)

You should have stopped listening or changed stations at that point..... he is about as good a ML odds maker as he is a race caller.

Forget dosage points. As currently formulated, it doesn't keep up with the emergence of new sires. Moreover, it ignores the importance of the females in the pedigree and that was important in Barbaro's case - his dam was by distance-limited Carson City, but she was an atypical Carson City in that she was successful at distances beyond 9f. Roman Dosage worked for about 10 years, but because he limited his outlooke to 4 generations, it quickly went out of date.

Barbaro fit the dosage profile (and then some.)

14-8-21-2-1 (46) DI = 2.41

Come back in 7 days.

Interesting angles:

http://ezinearticles.com/?Kentucky-Derby-Tips&id=535899

Someone tell this guy (Brian Gabrielle) that Real Quiet didn't have the RAN curse since Raise A Native wasn't in his dam's SIRE line. :p

Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Hard Spun
Liquidity
Nobiz
Sam P.
Scat Daddy
Sedgefield
Storm in May
Zanjero
Xchanger - if he goes.
Teuflesberg - if he makes it in.

Yeah...again, dosage is worth considering. It wasn't developed as a handicapping tool but certain aspects do seem to apply. The 16 points in DP rule has worked since 1950...only two horses since dosage became meaningful around 1940 have had less than 16 points, Middleground in 1950 had 12 and the great Count Fleet had but 4 in 1943. Only 3 horses had as few as 16...Sunday Silence, Lil E Tee, and Canonero II...SS now has 36 with new CDR's appointed, Canonero was So American so he figured to have fewer. I generally like to see 18 or more. Again...just something to consider and far from a lock, just a guide. I agree that the female lines are just as important, in fact I believe in the LH+ theories as put forth by Hahn and the Reines (female counterpart of CDR's). Also of note, no horse with more than two 0's in DP has ever won the Derby...Slew's Tizzy, if run, would be the only one in this year's field with three (4-0-8-0-0).

Exactly. What most people don't seem to recongnize is that all dosage points mean at this point is how close in your pedigree you are to the old time stallions. They have become completely obsolete.

Yeah, I often hear people claiming Real Quiet broke the RAN Curse, he had RAN in dam's dam line, not in dam's sire line. Barbaro was the first horse to break it...there are about 8-9 horses this year who have "The Curse"...we'll see if one of them overcomes it.

I think there have been others who had fewer than 16 dosage points win then get their dosage points bumped up following the race. Real Quiet comes to mind.