Who will show drastic improvement in the Derby?
 

About 6:30 pm after the Derby is over we'll comment that the winner's improvement was the difference in the race and we should have seen it coming. I think this is more important this year where we have such a mixed bag with no real stand out that you can check off as doing everything right.

So, who do you think is poised for showing great improvement off their last race and why? The answer to the Derby jusy may be here.

Spyder

The answer is the even running plodder who can't win at 8-9f but can run his same slow speed all day. Find that horse and you'll have the longshot who makes the trifecta. As for winning, it'll be one of the seven or so that have been highly regarded on the trail up to the race.

T-bred fan....
Based on what you just said- Zanjero?

I think that is possible. Zanjero has been a horse people have wanted to bet based on price and improvement angle. He does look like he can run all day. So, yeah he might be the one.

If you need "drastic improvement" going into the Derby, you shouldnt be running in it.

Zanjero
 

Who rides Zanjero now?
Now since Gomez jumps to a Pletcher horse, Any Given Saturday.
Who is Asmussen go to guy?

If that was the case. from a speed figure standpoint anyway, there would be not a single horse running in the race.

As par for the race is 110 on the Beyer Scale, and Curlin's top figure of 103 puts him 4 1/4 lengths shy of par.

Dominican would be the most drastic possobility. After a break to adjust his sexual preferance ,he has hit the track running and Miller has eased him into the derby picture. My concern is he a cushion track horse. Number 2 is Curlin. As good as he has performed it just looks like he is a lot of horse and he has room to improve based on his light careere. Tiago is another that I think could still show improvement. Did the light come on or will he revert back to an ordinary horse?

Tiago and Zanjero seem most likely to me, both should like the extra furlong more than others may and both seem to be improving. I don't know that they are quite fast enough to win but I bet both put up new career high Beyers in the Derby.

Any Given Saturday seems the horse most likely to be able to move way up and run a 108-110 Beyer that should be enough to win the race. He could also be a total non-factor.

While I don't particularly like Tiago for this race, it won't shock me if he runs OK, but Zanjero feels like a plug who just sort of sucked up in the Bluegrass where no real running was taking place. I will be very surprised if he is any real factor in the Derby. He just feels slow.

That could be Bridgmohan, he's won aboard Zanjero before and I think Asmussen knew he was taking the risk of losing Gomez when he gave him a leg up on Saturday.

NT

One of the biggest reasons I like Tiago, is look at his Maiden race. The way he dug in, after being pushed and forced how wide!?! The way he continued to dig and fight to the wire impressed me. I don't think he will win, but he will hit the board.

If Sean Bridgemohan wins the Derby it could jeopardize Jean Cruget's stranglehold on worst jockey to ever win the Derby.

I thought Tiago looked good winning last time out and was visually impressive, but wont everything have to fall just right for him to show, he'll have to avoid traffic probelms with his style of running!

First race with the blinkers off and that really helped as he showed a willingness to weave through traffic that will be important in the Derby. People really shouldn't be fooled by him being Giacomo's brother. This horse is a lot faster. Heck, Mike Smith said that in an interview before the SA Derby when the horse still looked like a total nag. Not often that you see a Hall of Fame jockey tell you that a horse with a career high 84 Beyer is a lot faster than the horse he won the Kentucky Derby on.

On a related note....if they gave jockeys Beyer figures, what do you suppose Mike Smith's would have been for the inner track meet......23?

He's an obvious detriment to the horse's chances but we've seen him weave through traffic at Churchill before to win the Derby with a much slower horse so I won't be able to dismiss this horse solely based on his jockey. At least we know he won't put the horse in a stranglehold on the first turn and destroy all chances like Kent D will.

grand, thanks for that. was over in the states that weekend, and Tiago looked the most impressive in the derby preps - he's also the name of one of my favourite footballers, so im hoping he does fine!

I am still waiting for a horse named Giggs!

Stewart Elliott get a mention in that category?

I think Zanjero has little chance, no matter who's aboard.

NT

Oops.....my mistake. He totally sucks.

hes playing class at the moment. Coolmore have had Solskjaer and Van Nistlerooy, could be one soon!

I would settle for one named "The Welsh Wizard"


You don't happen to know where one could pick up one of those t-shirts about Giggs only playing for the Welsh National Team and Not England do you? Been looking for one of those since I heard about them.

had a quick look - quite bored right now.. but couldnt see any to match your description.. i know there is a famous pic of him playing for england as a schoolboy cant quite find it yet..

Nah, I think Ron Franklin retired the trophy.

Every race I look at Zanjero and expect improvement and it has not happened, I dont see why it should in a few weeks. I am through with him.

give me Mike in a big race over half these nags riding......now if its a mdn 16k claimer on the inner you might as well have CC Lopez (as long as he is not in on a fix with Coa)

Really?

Some people find a way to get it done in the big spots............then again maybe some people are really lucky.

It doesn't matter what par is. All you can do is see how you stack up against the others. When Giacomo won, I don't think he made any considerable move forward; just many horses regressed. If nobody can route a 105 Beyer, then you have to anticipate a Beyer for the Derby winner to likely be under 110. And if you've been running 88s or 87s even in a weak year, you better forget about the Derby.

LOL, you joke around, but I've sometimes thought they should give jockeys some kind of figure like a beyer based on the ride they gave a horse,etc...

mike is riding alot better as of late, hes picking up winners cost to cost, and hes on the a derby horse who alot of ppl like.

agree with you, mike gets bashed bad on here, but ppl tend to forget hes a hall of famer, and hes still solid, better then half the guys around i'd say

Ah, the Mike Smith path. I can't wait to see Tiago go 37 wide on both turns.

I wonder who the board would collectively rather have on their horse right now, Jorge Chavez or Mike Smith?

Back in the day, summer of 1999 these two kept swapping mounts on Affirmed Success and Artax in the sprint races in NY. It seemed like every time Chavez got on Artax the horse ran better. That played out in the BC.

NT

Mike rode like **** at Aqueduct, I dont think he would deny that.......still though in big races he is more into it and finds a way.

Good luck to Curlin and Albarado in a 20 horse field.

Whats funny is I see Mike get blasted constitently but I here narry a peep about Solis who has had MUCH MUCH better mounts the past year or so.

Poor Flashy Bull. Smith did do a great job of keeping him out of traffic that day though didn't he? :eek:

What has happened to Solis? The only time he wins is when he is on the best horse by far and I refuse to bet him.