Whos 2nd-4th Derby Lock??
 

whos the always a bridesmaid never a bride plodder who picks up the pieces and thats it?? i was thinking maybe cowtown cat???

I would say Zanjero should be used in exotics for sure. He's never been off the board (yet.)

I'll give you a few...
Scat Daddy
Circular Quay
Any Given Saturday
Zanjero
Tiago

Zanjero definitely. . .

And how about one of brianwspencer's favorite horses... Storm in May. Worth a shot... I think he's been off the board in maybe one start.

ask PG1985

CQ is a LOCK for a exotic hit and Zanjero has great shot if post is nice for him

I think he's too busy praying that none of Pletcher's horses make the super.

A smart play would be to key Quay 2nd and 3rd in a trifecta surrounded 10 horses. That is 2 $90 trifectas

That is true....only once, and he ran into some traffic on the turn in that one and had to "steady."
I still don't think he is a good play in the Derby though (if he goes in that race) even in exotics. I just don't think this horse will be particulary effective going 10f.
His style seems best suited to being a closer in sprint races. I think he will be most effective closing in races run from 6f, to one-turn miles.
He is a fairly versatile horse however, so I could be wrong.

He's not a dirt router in my opinion. . . Can he get 10F?

Hell Quay in all three spots is $270 with going 10x9x1 and moving the 1 into three spots. a great play in my opinion. Really depends on how you structure it but I also think Zanjero has a shot at the board....want to see who is going to ride though

No clue, but his pedigree suggests that he can. And you made me say this...

They can all get 10 furlongs. It's just a matter of how fast. :D

I completely agree. You know you are going to get good odds on Quay. $270 is definately worth the risk. Lets see, we need 10 horses. I can throw out Teuf and Sedge. Hmmm..I can also toss Liquidity and Sam P. So I need to get rid of 5 more horses. Any thoughts......

Of course, Storm in May's broodmare sire is Relaunch. A couple of years ago there was another horse out of a Relaunch mare that I didn't think could get 10f effectively. His name was Ghostzapper.
I have now started quoting and arguing with myself. That is always a good sign.

I can't foresee a situation in which neither Circular Quay nor Tiago hit the board.

Curlin, Great Hunter, Cowtown, Tiago is four more

I can only assume that the person using the term meant it as an insult to Perfect Drift. I also assume that you quoting it means that you hate Perfect Drift. Why does everyone hate Perfect Drift? This entire thread has been nothing but Perfect Drift bashing in disguise.

Tiago

Did you really just say Tiago could hit the board?

Why not, Scav?

That's how I play the Derby every year, and it works quite well. Find a horse (or two) you are most comfortable will hit the board, and key them with 8 others (8x7x1 * 3 bets = $168 for a buck.)

Last year I couldn't decide between Barbaro and Sweetnorthernsaint so I double keyed them in exactas and trifectas, and caught for $8k.

The year before, I keyed AA but didn't have Giacomo (who did?!?)

2004, I keyed Smarty but didn't have Imperialism (but it didn't matter because of the future bet.)

2003, I keyed Peace Rules and hit (although the triple was pretty weak.)

2002, Perfect Drift (but no War Emblem, loss).

So in the last 5 years that works out to a pretty nice payoff, even though I've been 5-5 in selecting a horse to hit the board I hit twice (which I guess that's about the % you would expect.)

True true. I know he's not a threat to win it, but I like his style as a *possible* super filler at boxcar odds.

1) Mike Smith
2) Mike Smith
3) SLOW
4) no
5) Mike Smith

Squirrel finds an acorn once a winter

Also, no way the pace is anything near when Giacomo wins. I for one love the fact that he is in the race because he has no shot, and will take stupid money because of Giacomo and pretty boy

Dont be talking them out of there Tiago,Curlin,Great Hunter bets

All it does is make SS,CQ,AGS odds go higher and higher

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

I like your method here. Thanks for the info.

I thought the same thing, but after looking at this horse, I think he's probably a bit more talented than Giacomo. I actually like him better than CQ at this point... I just can't see CQ winning the derby off an 8 week layoff. If he wins it, it'll be bad news bears in the future.

If Pletcher ISN'T dodging anything (anyone really believe that?), then CQ is a far superior animal to Tiago. Though with all of the questions....I'm not really sure.

He's a ****ing faster version of Giacomo, so you tell me why he won't keep closing when others are quitting and get a piece.

Mike Smith sucked in New York, but he's capable of a great ride every once in a while, and this is his kind of horse.

Unless they go :24 and :49, he'll crack the super.

Bad news is fine. I was telling GPK tonight that his turn of foot on the dirt is Afleet Alex like. If he is healthy (no wraps whatsoever unlike Bandini last year) I am all over him and not getting talked out of it

I would say CQ is a very good choice for a wager like this if I have any faith in him off the layoff.
If he hits the board and just one less than expected horse does as well, you are looking at a $3,000 tri, minimum... that's the beauty of the Derby.

I'm concerned about there being an underlying issue we don't know about. Circular Quay is definitely a talented colt, but I'm just concerned about the long layoff and fact that the colt is 800 lbs soaking wet. How is a colt like that going to withstand the bumping and grinding (no pun intended) of the Derby?

Remember Smith's ride on Flashy Bull last year? He may be the only horse to ever run 15 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby.

Almost the same TG wise, except less races for Tiago....

He has been bounced around in all his races, and he still comes flying.

By the way, my most likely choice to key at this point is Hard Spun. I don't feel super confident he can win (I don't have any real strong opinion this year at all) but I feel very confident in his chances to hit the board.

With 19 other horses going 10 furlongs? I think I'll have to pass on him. I'll let him beat me.

Interesting selection right here. He would definitely be part of my ticket in the other legs when using CQ and his 'tg' sheet is very solid, I worry about distance though. In my experience, every Danzig I have ever beat seems to be gasping as the wire. my experience, one of those instances for a horse player I guess

He's got stamina top and bottom (Turkoman has one of the highest AWD's of American sires), with tactical speed. The distance isn't a concern, the trip is though- he doesn't quite have the tactical speed of say a Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex, and doesn't have quite the late kick of a Thunder Gulch, but runs very consistently and hasn't fired a bad race yet (I don't care what anyone says, that Arkansas race wasn't bad at all under an impossible scenario.) A very good chance to hit the board, even if his win odds may be slightly underlaid to his actual possibility of winning.

My second choice to key will likely be Street Sense if the public doesn't recognize his talents, and 3rd choice of CQ (the layoff is really driving me crazy because I think he may be the best "fit" of all the runners in the field to win if Pletcher can get him right.)