Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement
 

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

DrugS,
Just out of curiosity, do you think post position will matter much with him?
What if he draws 1, 19, or 20? Do you like him enough to still go with him from one of those posts?

As you know...I also had fine money acb on Inky and also had Jazil and Steppenwolfer in my first 4 last year.

Not to mention Benardini and Jazil winning the next two legs.




So I do speak with some authority when I say these 2 things:





2......I am not taking him...under any cicrumstances........also good.

Someone stole my first thing.

LOL, could your day get any worse by knowing these were my plays too and coming from me that isn't saying much! :D

Oh my God.





Could you seek another site....ma'amski?

I'm kidding....fine work.

Oh...do you squamish?

I will bet him from any post.

In a 10 furlong race--with such a long run into the turn, and a horse with his grinding style---post postion means very little.

I don't know for sure that AGS is the most likely winner in the race...perhaps Curlin might be....but he's a great price, has the right style, and I will be quite surprised if he isn't on the board....

I like him as well, at least at this point, and think he is a cinch to finish ahead of Curlin ( which may only guarantee him 14th ).

And why does Curlin have to run so badly?

Isn't he a prime candidate for the 'bounce' theorists?

I think he could win if the rest of the field were alpacas.

And Andy sure isn't one of those....

I think in his case it has more to do with the whole under-seasoned horse, for a shady trainer....

The Derby is a race that makes too many people try and be too clever. While the best horse doesn't always win....and in some cases...like with Holy Bull...they even run in the tank....but, Curlin is "the best horse"...and the best horse should rarely be so easily dismissed...imo anyway.

I love derby post position theorists.



This already looks like a race that could get stolen by some filthy sneak.

But I will reveal no more at this time.

If anything wins wire-to-wire, it would probably be Hard Spun....and with Mario Pino up, who's never seen a horse he didn't want to rate into submission, I doubt he'll be on the early lead.

I am far from convinced that Curlin is the " best horse ".

No you aren't.

If he isn't...who is?

Do you mind?



Saying it can make it happen.

Or didn't you know that?

I have like three weeks to figure that out....right?

with horses that are going so far..your pick is a close 4th in mine..

I would say AGS and Cowtown Cat are my top two right now.

You are not fighting the devil hard enough.

You must resist with all your might.




Satan comes in many forms...my friend.

These are going to be 2 of them.

Really? What is it that you like about Cowtown Cat?
He hasn't impressed me at all.

I was going to ask the same question. Where the hell is his good race?

Why, on the day of the Kentucky Derby of course!!

Im betting AGS too.. the horse is doomed...

!!!!!!!!!!!!



OOOOOOOOOO

I agree with the fact that AGS is a grinder and those types tend to light the board. I will use him in my tickets. But my pick is Street Sense. I hate chalk but I love this horse.

I think 6-1 to 8-1 odds are well within reason. Curlin comes in as the "now horse" and he'll get some play. Folks won't forget Circular Quay, or Scat Daddy. And certainly Nobiz (although I think most people are skeptical of him) will take some dough. We might have a favorite in the 9-2 or 5-1 range. I am honestly fascinated by the potential odds in the race, should make for a great race!

Yeah there are always the "wiseguy" horse that comes in and takes alot of play. I think that horse will be Dominican, who I dont plan to use. But I will take 9/2 - 5/1 on Street Sense please.:D I will not use Circular Quay, I really liked him but the time off is just to much. And Nobiz will be on my tickets also.

Disclaimers:

All of this could be null and void once I look at the Sheets and see if he's fast enough...

Assumptions:

As has been discussed these are average horses this year
They are all a little on the slow side

I don't care about Derby myths, Voodoo or anything to do with breeding other to look at the sire and dam sire and see if they might be precocious and see if they have some distance limitations(based on races run). Most of that to me is nonsense and just people trying to act like they know what they are talking about.

We have a horse in Cowtown that will be overlooked big time on the Derby.

Here's a horse that was brilliant enough at 2 to track a fast pace and kick out a Beyer of 92 at 5 1/2f.

He's tractable enough to carve out slow fractions on or off the pace.

He doesn't appear to me to be speed crazy to me, he's not fighting the rider.

He's won 2 two turn stakes back to back.

His last appeared slow, but I believe he got a 98 Beyer.

He's going to have 4 preps and 4 weeks off, let's see what the reports come back on him during Derby week. He might be thriving.

There's no standout in my opinion and no one, unless it happens this weekend(which I doubt) is throwing big numbers.

This is a very average group of horses, again let's see what the most important figures come back, if he looks good on the Sheets, he can win.
I like his versatility and that's a big factor in the Derby. It's not like he's 10 points slower on the Beyers than anything this year, as long as the legit figures show he's fast enough, I"ll have no problem using him.

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

I really like that phrase....."dramatically sub-par." I am going to have to start using that one.
It is also very apt in this case.

I like Windu's logic on this one. I think this is the exact type of race (a lot of inseparable horses and not too large of a dichotomy between the top tier and the second tier) where a bomb can come in. With that said, I think the winner will come from the group of Curlin, SD, NLS, CQ, SS, Tiago, HS and AGS, but upon further inspection, I'll probably chuck a few of those and find some bombs that I like to take their places. Cowtown Cat will probably be around 30/1, which I think is very good value considering that his IL Derby figure was the same as NLS' Wood figure and SD's FL Derby figure.

Cowtown Cat is an underlay at 100-1. He is SLOW. He has never run anything even remotely close to a good race.

What will you be wearing if he wins the Derby?

I don't know.....what will you be wearing when he runs in the second half of the field?

Why should I always be the one accountable for bad opinions?

I didn't say I liked him really. I said I thought 30/1 was an overlay and that I like PG's thinking in trying to go against the grain because I don't think there's a huge disparity between the top tier and the rest of the field.

You, on the other hand, basically said he's going to run 21st, which is a much stronger statement, and you already were shown up by the horse once, so I'm wondering what'll happen if he runs big again.

I'm now shocked to hear that you are using logic from PG. That alone should put you directly in a clown suit....if not a strait jacket.

Not PG1985, buddy. Pointg5.