Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?
 

Let's imagine for a second that Ketchikan didn't get injured and ran in the Arkansas Derby and duplicated his 99 Beyer. Now let's assume Curlin runs the exact same race, finishes the same distance ahead of Storm in May and the rest of the field but is only 2-3 lengths ahead of Ketchikan. Is there the same amount of buzz for him as there is now? Don't get me wrong, I think he's a heck of a horse and one of the few that has a shot to win on Derby day but I really think people should think of this scenario (using whatever 99 Beyer horse you'd like) to evaluate him instead of basing it on blowing away a bunch of sprinter/miler types at 9 furlongs.

yes, same amount of buzz for Curlin.

See my thread on PF's...if Dr Roman is correct, Curlin's race, while visually impressive, doesn't measure up to other prep winners...time will tell!

I don't know, people seem pretty impressed by margins in forum-land. This just kind of seems like Bernardini all over. Granted Curlin won't be running into Invasor anytime soon but 7/2 in the future pool seems insane to me.

I agree with everything you said.

I think there is a reason why Pletcher and Assmussen haven't won the derby. And, by god, i'm sticking to that reason this year. If they win then i'm wrong.

I don't care as much of him not running at age 2, or just have 3 lifetime starts. I'm more worried about the fact that I don't think any other horse in the rebel or Arkansas Derby is going to the derby. (at least, they shouldn't...Storm in May has no business going).
I don't knock him for who he ran against, but you would at least like to see him tested against one of the other top 10 candidates before betting him at a such a low price on Derby day.

I will puke in CD's grandstand if a cheater like Assmussen wins the Derby.

Nothing against Curlin, as I think he's a quality horse (and less likely to be "aided" than others that won everything yesterday for Assman) but there's a reason his horses never run big on big days...

Detention barns.

You are correct, sir. That's the only thing keeping me from making Curlin my Derby pick (well, that and a possible shitty post).

Not trying to be a smartass, but which high caliber trainers have NEVER cheated, ever?? My guess is some have never been caught. I know Pletcher, Asmussen, O'Neill have all cheated so that's a large chunk of the Derby field right there. Which ones NEVER cheat??

Well... the likely 2nd choice is trained by a guy who has won the Derby and the BC Classic and he's never been suspended.

no chance to hit the board first saturday in may

Because?

NO chance at the board?

I think Curlin maybe the Bellamy Road of this year. And I think Dominican maybe the "wiseguy" horse of the Derby that always takes lots of money and doesnt light the board. jmo I am sticking with Street Sense. And I like Nobiz/Zanjero/AGS for the bottom slots/super.

Title of the thread says it all "Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?"...

Yes, he is...much like Bellamy Road was for being a 17 1/2 length winner in the Wood. I pray Curlin is the favorite on Derby Day, he might cash in on a lesser prize, but he is not winning.

okay, why is he not winning?

didn't you see, he doesn't have a shot at hitting the board?!

yes ,lol, I saw that. ummm, I guess I look for a little more actual reasoning to accomodate the opinion.

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

Also, my apologies for not leaving a rationale for why he wasn't winning before...girlfriend was lurking around asking questions while I was posting.
Got me distracted.

nice reply.

some others need to take note--a post like the above, whether one agrees with the opinion or not, is far more meaningful than the reply 'well, i just don't like him' as a reason to bet against!!

Duly noted.

One quick question.....do you think Time Squared can win the Bluegrass?

One horse that both Curlin and SS ran against was the closer Delightful Kiss. In both races, Curlin and SS fired their "A" game or at least close to it and DK seems to be a pretty reliable decent horse.

In the TB derby, DK lost by 6 1/4 lengths, although he ducked out quite a bit at the start, in Ark Dby, he lost by 11 1/2 lengths.

Perhaps more interesting, in the stretch runs of each race, he lost 2 3/4 lengths or so to Curlin, and he lost about 1 1/4 lengths to SS. The Tb Dby was 1/16 of a mile shorter and probably wind aided in the home stretch but one would guess that based on this, Curlin is certainly not overrated.

He reminds me of a lightly raced Lawyer Ron. He ran well at FG and Oaklawn, just like Lawyer Ron. Will he **** the bed in the Derby? We'll see.

Disclaimer: I lost alot of money today so my opinion isn't as valuable as some. Take it with a grain of salt.

And King of the Roxy beat Storm in May by 11 3/4 lengths in the Hutchinson. I guess Curlin will be filling out the exacta behind him in the Derby.

what, six degrees of delightful kiss??

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

Curlin is better than Lawyer Ron, who was just unrateable. Was his Ark Derby better than Smarty Jones? Arguably it was. The 2004 field did have Borrego and Purge so that was a better bunch but I think Curlin would've dusted both Borrego and Purge as well.

The Bellamy Road comparisons are apples to oranges, IMO, since Bellamy Road was a need the lead type. Curlin doesn't have to lead every step of the way.

So what was the best prep, anyways? People though the Blue Grass was going to be but considering how it was run, I'd say no way. The Fountain of Youth might be, since it produced both the FLA Derby winner and the Wood winner.

bernardini was fourth in his first start, i don't know much about that race, how it was run, who won it--but he certainly finished behind some horses in his debut.
as for curlin--the question remains, much like bernardini, is what will he do when he gets eyeballed? a lot of people say who knows what will happen, since he hasn't been, but what if curlin hasn't been because no one can keep up with him long enough to test him? now, after only three starts, i'm certainly not going to start with the 'he's a monster' talk (of course, i have seen that mentioned here) or he can't be tested--he's only run three times!

as to whether he's overrated due to large margins, i guess i'd rather have a horse who may be overrated due to big wins, then to have a horse suffering narrow losses, or barely eking out a win.
so, what helps you to sleep better at night if it's your horse? big win, or narrow but gutsy win?

excitement at the finish-wise, i thought the bluegrass was a pretty good race. god knows it needed it after a ho-hum 6 furlongs...

Okay, I can buy all that, legitmate concerns.

Competition, yeah it wasn't the best. But what I will say is that he handled Tueflesberg who has beaten Hard Spun and who also ran competively in the Blue Grass. And regardless of the competition, in each of his races there was never any doubt about who the best horse was, he has simply crushed each field. And not like Bernardini did in my view. Curlin has shown that he can come from off the pace, race wide, etc. I think he has been tested and has shown that he is superior. The other contenders, the ones that have supposedly been tested all have question marks of their own imo.

I also like the tempo that he maintains. He doesn't need the lead, he won't be on the lead, but he isn't a real closer. I don't know, maybe he's a presser?
What I'm saying is that his pace is dispersed more evenly throughout the race which is beneficial for long distances. A contrast would be Circular Quay who runs slow, then kicks in. I don't like that style for 10 panels. Others like AGS don't look like they can sustain a top effort the whole way.

he is fighting history in terms of the number of preps, but to me that does not rule him out, especially this year.

I'm not saying that he is my pick, or can't lose, but I am saying that I am not going to rule him out because of the number of preps or who his trainer is.
right now I would say that to me its between him, Street Sense and Dominican. Domincan is the most interesting because everyone is going to write him off as a poly specialist. but he was really impressive how he ran in the BG.

I think this is a misconception about Bellamy Road. I don't think he was a "need the lead type," rather that he was just so fast, he beat everyone to the front nearly every time.

Right now Lawyer Ron is the better horse and more than likely will remain so. If Curlin flops in the Derby you can expect the cut and paste retirement announcement.

It's well understood that there is a big difference between 7 fur. races and those longer distances we see in the derby preps. If you want to choose KoRox over Curlin at 7 fur. it might be a decent comparison but the only 7 1/2 fur. race for Curlin is the maiden he won, first time out by 12 3/4! So even then, you dont have a common opponent at 7 fur. and Curlin did pretty well his only go at one turn...

Moreover, the very idea of Beyer figs as I understand them is to be able to compare horses to one another, when they ship to other tracks or whatever. I maybe wrong about that, I only have a casual knowledge of them but I think that is the idea and a reasonable idea. Most people agree Beyer did something for the sport with his figs. even though they are not the be all and end all either. But you are not opposed to his idea are you?

One would think someone of your experience would see the distinction after all, dont experienced punters speak about such things as pace, pressure, ability to stretch out? Clearly comparing horses at difference distances is a recipe for disaster, just imagine comparing Roberto Clemente to Henry Aaron in a league where the fences are 400' from home plate (e.g. in the Caribean winter league)?

This stuff is rather obvious so I guess you just want to be a prick or else confuse other people.:(

As I stated previously, there are all sorts of comparisons that may be made, and one race is certainly not the be all and end all by any means. I tried to find a horse that was reasonable comparison, I tried to find distances that were reasonably the same distance, I tried to find a horse that was as highly regarded for the derby as Curlin, I tried to find a horse that seemed to fire about the same in each race, DK is a decent horse, he did decent in each race. I tried to point that there were some differences in the race e.g. trouble and wind. There is no perfect comparison and of course other data pts. would certainly be appreciated.

Perhaps you can try again with a more intelligent post. Instead of using a horse like KoRox that has not shot at getting 10f, you can find a horse that is highly regarded for the derby? That might be interesting.

Considering how unintelligent I find comparing the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby, two races run in very different manners, I hardly found my initial comparison unintelligent. Simply comparing how far one horse finished behind two different horses without taking into consideration the actual way the races were run is preposterous. That was my actual point.

That post by horseofcourse he just deleted made me laugh out loud. Thanks. I needed that.

Paraphrase, homie.

He quoted my comparison of Lawyer Ron and Curlin and was breakin' my balls how Lawyer Ron wasn't a lightly raced horse.

Curlin has run 3 preps this year which is pretty much as many as any other horse or more in some cases...other than Teuflesberg who has gone out 4 times, noone has run more than 3.

By the way pillow pants, I misunderstood your post then reread it and realized how stupid I was in my reply..which is why I deleted it.