Real Derby Contenders
 

Any way I try to look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders I keep coming up with a replay of the Breeders Cup 2yo race.
Street Sense, Circular Quay at the top with Scat Daddy, No Biz right behind and followed by a bunch of pretenders to complete the field.

IF you look at the Breeders Juvy Futurity at Keenland last fall, and the Breeders Cup Juvy at Churchill right after, you'll see the same 3 horses in the trifecta.
I think Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quay all have a great shot at hitting the board again in some order....

i'd say there are 4 real serious contenders and i'd be shocked if the winner wasent one of these 4


great hunter
street sense
nobiz
hard spun

And 1 outsider

tiago

I don't post here much, but I guess it's called Derby trail so it's time to stick your nose in.

I take my contenders and then look at their running styles. I then try and see how the race will unfold based on what type of horses are going. I feel like the big guns are closers this year. CQ, SS, GH. However I fear the fact that you will have those three off pace, with Tiago somewhere in there, when they decide to make their moves I fear them getting caught up with eachother. If the rail does not open up for one of them, then wide they go. So I am dropping the closers this year because I fear the horse I pick might be the one getting jammed/caght. At this point, NoBiz will be my pick. He will be up close, and he has somewhat of a push button around the turn. I fear his strech run, and he might get caught, but at least I know around the turn he will be there and that is good enough for me. I just want my pick to be in the race and have a shot, and I am positive he will be up with the leaders around the turn.

nobiz is 100% my bet, its been like that since last year for me, but if its not nobiz i think it will be one of the other horses i mentioned.

I don't think there has been a real standout performance this year. It would be hard for me to discount any of these horses...

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Curlin
Tiago
Hard Spun
Circular Quay
Notional
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat

and to a lesser extent even horses like

Dominican
Officer Rocket
Deadly Dealer

...dependant on what they do tomorrow.

I have no clue at this point. It has been a pretty non-descript Derby trail to this pont for me. Nothing stands out. If Street Sense or Great Hunter or Curlin run a big one tomorrow, they may stand out as that is the last big prep day.

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

Are we going to have the fortune teller again this year? What color is the saddle cloth and does the winners name have a geometric shape to it?:cool:

It's never to soon to look to the stars for the winner.

That was Euro that knew of that lady... don't think he's on here anymore. Drat!

P.S.

The winner of the derby is coming out of the 9 hole.

I remember that from last year. I remember the poster said she saw the winner and had something to do with red. Then someone came up that it was Barbaor because La Vile Rouge=Red. Can't wait for her pick again.

you are right. I will consult the old board and see if he's still in the loop. I have a friend that is into all that. She made me laugh when we were at the track and I asked her what her lucky # was? She paused and said she never asked.

Here is something to chew on.These are the real Derby contenders.
Cowtown cat:Has raced on 5 different tracks,ALL DIRT,won at 5.5f,6.5f,1 1/6,1 1/8.Beyers just keep going up in every race he won.
No Biz: Because PG 1985 likes him.Most likely the pace for the race.
Street Sense:Owns the highest Beyer,And the horse to beat.
And last but not least and you all are gonna crap your pants if you know me...............
Notional:This is the only California horse who has a shot.Ran 105 as a maiden,and ran a great race at GP in his first off the layoff.This is the horse who has the best chance to run them down.
Honorable Mention goes to Hard Spun.
These are MY contenders.

I won't bet any horse that has been off for 6 weeks +
let him beat me
I don't care

Street Sense has always been my horse. I can't go against but the one I will include is going to run 3rd in the Bluegrass and first in the Arkansas Derby

Curlin will have you singing a different tune tomorrow. Bet on it.

If Notional has the lungs, he will have a HUGE shot to win with his style, they are going to get real stupid on the front end this year ago and Notional has the progressing sheet that you like to see

LMAO!!

ah, thanks for the trip down memory lane!!

These are the horses I like for the derby as of now:

Scat Daddy
Notional
Great Hunter
Street Sense
Zanjero

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

I don't like Curlin's last work... there's my knock.

Shoot, they may not even be running tomorrow if the storm system that they're expecting moves through. Supposed to be nasty tomorrow...

thunderstorms down here caj..of course i'm southeast of the track, so who knows what they have or will get tomorrow. i've heard several forecasts already for this area.

I've always said that there is only 1 handcapper in the world better than Andy Beyer, and that would be everyone who looks at a racing form!!!

Buckle down and stay safe, D...

I hope it's not bad enough to keep them from running tomorrow.

i've been pulling for hard spun in all his races. but i've never made him my 'derby horse'. the ones running the show have me concerned.

i think great hunter is the one. but i'd love to see a danzig come in first! (but that should be obvious!!)

Top Pick - Any Given Saturday

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Longshot horse - Sam P.

oh, it's not too bad. we just got in from a trip down south--i live in a dry county (the horror, the horror!!) and we have to drive about 40 minutes to get the devil's brew.:eek: incredible lightening show on the way home. of course it got dark, so i had to quit trying to read the bloodhorse from last week that i just got a chance to dig into.

but i'm with you, hopefully the race goes off, and everyone comes in ok. gotta tape it, as i have to work a rare saturday. like the 60 hours i put in this week already wasn't enough!

Notional makes me think of BlueGrassCat from last year. Sneaky good horse that has really done nothing wrong and looking at current live odds:

Pool Total: $49,442.06 Last Updated: 2007-04-13T20:57:14.531


Notional ML:15 Current:35.

Seems to be forgotten. for now.....

I don't think you will see alot from any horse that has raced this winter in California. Baffert's gone quiet and O'neil horses are a cut below. Notional is to slow and Great Hunter won't have a polytrack in Kuntucky. Tioga gets alot of talk after his last race (his final quarter was the best of the 3yo out west) but he lacks real racing experiance.

Right now I see:

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Any Given Saturday

as the group most likely to win on Derby Day. I think Curlin and Deadly Dealer both have a chance to join that group tomorrow with a big effort.

Then horses like Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, Tiago, and maybe even Sam P that I have a hard time seeing win but can see hitting the board. The rest I feel pretty confident in tossing at this point. Hard Spun is the only I could see possibly burning me but I am pretty confident playing against him is the right move.

From the TG's, these are horses that have a great progression going into the Derby.....

Any Given Saturday
Curlin - this weekend pending obviously, might be too fast too soon but great opening numbers
Hard Spun
Notional - my focus
Scat Daddy - amazing progression for a horse that I personally thought had no shot of getting this distance
Street Sense - obvious but good opening number, will see how he runs this weekend
Zanjero

Circular Quay ran absolutely monsterous in his race at FG. I am now of the opinion that the KY Derby might be coming out of the FG this year as those races were ultra impressive fig wise.

Hard Spun could be a great use with his progression, could very well be sitting on a monster race and Jones (who I agree is a moron for some of his statements) might not want to squeeze the tomato too much

I am absolutely PRAYING that Great Hunter runs his rear end off tomorrow. His sheet is brutal and his stablemate looks about 10 times better, and I could probably get 40/1-60/1 on Notional Derby Day

Great info, Scav. Thanks for posting this.

I haven't let go of that one yet either. I'm totally with you, because if Hunter runs like a monster tomorrow, it just helps Street Sense too -- who at this point are probably my two key horses for the Derby and of course less inclusions of the other contenders (not trying to say they're your Derby exacta by any means).

These two horses I will have to deeply consider including...

wonder which horse gets exposed in early may? which of the 'best' finishes far back? which prep winner would you pick? or maybe runner-up?

i'm worried about the new and improved stormello. it's not that easy to change a horses style.

I think you are wise in your focus on Notional.He is just getting off the bench,and ran great in the Fla derby.Let's just hope he gets someone better than Robby{BURN IN HELL}Albarado.And he looks way better than Great Hunter on Paper.Cowtown is looking good too.

I think you have nothing to worry about with Stormello

You know... I just have a hard time liking Nobiz at this point. I can see him getting all freaked out and running rank early on and falling back. Who knows... I just don't think that cotton balls and blinkers are going to be much assistance on Derby day. I'll probably let him beat me.

I agree,But,he is a player that shouldn't be taken too lightly.I think he will be the pacesetter.

I like Notional and I like Cowtown Cat. The prob I have with the Quay and SS is that they will need an opening and with 20 horses that is very hard to do. Great Hunter is a logical choice and so is Any Given Saturday.

i'm not worried about him-i think he finishes far back on derby day.

edit---i'm not 'worried' about him, i said above that i'm worried insofar as i think they are putting him in a bad start, that he won't finish well.

cajun, i agree on nobiz. i don't like him derby day eith