Scat Daddy's FL Derby Beyer
 

I didn't get around to going thru charts until today. And I'm convinced "they" blew this number. There was four 1 1/8 mile races at GP on March 31, so we should be able to make reliable figs. The Beyer folks gave Scat Daddy a 98, which I'm now convinced is 7 points too low ( I make my own figs, using a very similar scale to Beyers). 7 points in "Beyerizing" is hardly splitting hairs.

Of the four 9 furlong races, the most reliable race to use as a barometer would be the Skip Away, won by AP Arrow, a horse who regularly has been running in the 100-106 neighborhood. Yet they assigned him a 92 for his winning effort. I'm pretty sure this number is too low and will be adjusted later on. I think they didn't like the fact Rehoboth ran 2nd, although on his best day, he can toss a 100. Looking at the other also rans, Political Force was coming off a 101 in a win over NW2X runners over the track and even turf specialist Touched by Madness was coming off a 97 on the dirt at GP. The evidence the 92 for the winner is just flat out wrong. I assigned a 99 for AP Arrow. The final time was 1:49.70

In another 9f race, the 6th, I believe the 87 is definitely too low for the Pletcher trained Soaring By. Soaring By chased a fast pace and tired badly in the LA Derby, but had run a big fig (96) going 7f at GP on Feb 3. The 2nd and 3rd place runners were lightly raced runners coming off Mdn wins. The crowd bet the race like it was a match race between Soaring By and Fearless Vision, who ended up running 1-2. But Rogers ran a giant race for 3rd, and was 5 1/2 lengths clear of 3rd. My guess is the Beyer folks didn't want to give him improvement off his 82 Beyer when he beat Mdn claimers. 3 runners separate themselves from the pack w/a Pletcher runner who's already run a 96 over the track at 7f; is a 94 too much of a stretch? Me thinks not. Soaring By got the 9 furlongs in 1:50 1/5 (rounded up by 1/100th)

The 4th was a maiden race in which the first place runner, Mountain Wolf, was DQd to 3rd. Its tough to project figures for maiden races, especially spring 3YOs because they can jump up in a hurry. At first I thought a 91 for the winner might be high but I believe the softish pace contributed to the big final time. The horses who were 1-2-3 after a quarter mile were still the top 3 at the end (although they switched places). The 6f fraction was just under 1: 13 3/5, so its not surprising they had plenty left. The 9 length gap from 5th to 6th was more evidence that the top 5 ran big here. Final time was 1:50.47

Now the FL Derby. Scat Daddy was coming off a win in the FOuntain of Youth with 4 horses bunched at the wire. The old cliche is that bunched fields= slowish races. Mistake here. After the top 4, there was clear separation from everyone else. My point? The 95 they assigned Scat Daddy could have been too low. After all, Nobiz Likeshobiz came out of that race to dust the higher figged Any Given Saturday last weekend in the Wood. I think they used the 95 as a starting point to project for the Florida Derby. Based on the other numbers, I gave Scat Daddy a 105 for the FL Derby. But would that make the others too high? I don't think so. Notional would be a 103, which would be an improvement over his last but he was coming off an open length win, and one wonders if he could've won that by even more. Chelokee also would be making a decent move up, but he also was coming off a win, and a trouble plagued win at that. Stormello, who ran a tremendous race in the Fountain of Youth, factoring the pace into the picture, was 4th. Final time was 1:49 even

At a 98, Scat Daddy would be just another contender who you wouldn't want to take at anything less than 10-1. At a 105, he becomes a very strong contender. Street Sense and Great Hunter still have to run once more but right now, the "Daddy" has to be right there with them as the top 3 betting choices.

i agree with the beyer ,the race as awhole was not the best..the only bright spot was chelokke scat gets smoked in the derby imo he made hard spun look good

What does Hard Spun have to do with Scat Daddy?

I think you might be on to something there. I'm not really a fan of Beyer speed figs, but you have to check them. I think they are most reliable as a guage to what the odds will be since so many people use them and not much else. I prefer the DRF speed figs but use them very cautiously. It seems that Street Sense and AGS should have got higher Beyer figs considering they broke the track record. I'm curious what the higest Beyer figs for Poly are.

any time at gs is suspect including the grass...

What?

any time at gulfstream is suspect

thank you sooner ..i thought i was talking too the wall

Not being a wise ass, just didn't understand. Must have misread.
Does the Tampa 102 for SS and AGS seem out of whack to anyone but me?

The AP Arrow beyer jumped out at me for being too low. If your right about this U can make alot of $ on the derby because alot of serious players have already thrown out the GP horses.

Beyers work best for misleading people who don't dig deeper into the pp's.

Great detailed and constructive argument, and the same mistake they made last year on the Fl Derby (should have been 5 points higher.)

I still question the Daddy getting 10F but the horse cannot be discounted.

They will all get the 10 f !!!

My best plays Come when I find iffy BSF. I love using them but I don't rely on them. BTW, Joe Cordero's book on using BSF's is a must read!

Just a matter of 2:01 or 2:10 :D

Your analysis of the BSF's for Florida Derby day are the best I've even seen anyone critically analize the numbers. I'll have to break out the charts and do the same because you might be on to something. Most times the Beyers are on target but sometimes they are wrong. There's $ to be made when you can pinpoint incorrect calcultions of BSF's.

Or more.

I agree that generally speaking, the Beyers are pretty solid. And I think they're definitely better than 10 years ago. Unlike some, I think its a good thing to change numbers after the fact. At least they will admit they made a mistake initially.

I also agree w/Vol Jack: the AP Arrow figure really is the key here. I think the Beyer people put too much into projections for the Mdn race and NW1X, when in fact horses at those levels can improve dramatically.

I think Chelokee becomes a very live longshot for tris, exactas and supers (as does Notional, although the price won't be as high).

I hope you're kidding. The wise guys told you so?

So who is going to get played coming from GP? Scat will be 12-1.

First of all, thank you JJP for sharing all of your hard work with us. That is really nice.

As far as Nobiz beating AGS, I think people are reading a little too much into this race to "make weight" to their arguments. It's okay to back Nobiz, but AGS was forced very wide in the first turn and still somewhat wide on the 2nd turn. He finally hit the wall in the stretch after going the long way. So I dont think it makes Nobiz run any faster that he beat AGS, more or less a melt down for AGS.

More importantly, we coming back to two horses we havent talked about much but could shed more light on this: Chelokee and Sightseeing. THey butted heads with each other at least a couple of times in ALW races at GP. Their head to head score is 1-1. They both appear to have run consistent races once you factor in the ground loss in both of Sightseeings races (breaking from 9/11 holes in these races).

My question is did anybody see these races: (GP 3March, 5th race; GP 11Feb, 7th race). Be interested in any notes on ground loss, and how fast they were running at the end. They dont look to be very fast closers from the PPs but maybe someone saw this better and can comment.

My pt. is that aside from Notional, these two animals are the closest runners we have to the winners No Biz and Scat Daddy. We dont have many data pts to compare to Notional but we have several data pts. that we can use to compare these two horses to the the winners.

It's hard to believe that a serious player will throw out all the GP runners 3 1/2 weeks prior to the Derby.

It will prove to be a very strong NW1X race. True, Chelokee and Sightseeing didn't win their next starts but when you consider the big class hikes, its apparent this was a strong NW1X. And like most unusually strong races, there was a big gap (actually two) in this race. 8 lengths from 6th to 7th then another 10 lengths back to 8th.

I do remember Chelokee getting into some traffic trouble and overcoming it to win. I thought the race had a definite lack of speed and many quality closers, but the fractions were legitimate.

When I did my figure projections...I had the route races 3 points faster than the Beyer figures.

I guess that 's the Mar 3rd race. I believe Chelokee was blocked on the turn and then found a way to get through and win. Most observers were impressed with this. Sightseeing made some sort of move between 1st and 2and 2nd calls but then "couldnt sustain bid." Did he run into more traffic? was he wrapped up??

The Feb 11 race he also came from 4 len. back this time he was leading in the stretch and was caught by Delightful Kiss who may prove to be pretty decent. Sight. nosed out Chelokee for place in this one, but broke from the 11 hole. Serious ground loss here; if you can win from the 11 hole they make a movie about you..

I'd like to know if this horse has the will to pass other horses or just moves up when he's in the clear. The Feb 11 race sounds like he has the will to pass horses. Not sure about the other race, did he pass tired horses or actually move past them?

Does Prado have a derby horse yet? Edgar rode him in GP but Castellano for the Wood. Sightseeing connections dont appear to be derby bound but...?

DrugS, three questions that are probably fairly obvious, but I want to be sure. (1) when you do your figs, do you do them before you look at the Beyer figs? (2) are your figs "tripless" figs (ie, not trying to add or subtract for bias, trouble, etc?, and (3) are they on the same scale as the BSF's ? (ie, in a perfect world, would they match up exactly?

Thanks,
--Dunbar

PS--very nice thread-starter, JJP!

Yes, I make my projections before I see what the Beyer figure maker came back with...and I use the same scale.

I never add or subtract points for ground loss, bad trips, etc. I don't believe it's wise to. I might think a horse might have had about 2 or 3 lengths worth of trouble--but I would never factor that into the number....because those type of things can be difficult to quantify so accurately, and aren't always that cut and dry.

If you make a mistake with a figure--and have a number wrong, it can compound itself in the future, because you are going to be using that number when you make future figures. That's why I think non-computerized speed figures tend to act a lot more conservative when a tricky situation arises.

Now, I will sometimes take race circumstances and stuff like bias and pace into consideration when I do a card where a race on it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. There are some real easy days, where you can have a figure for every horse on the card in less than 10 minutes time and be totally confident it's the right number. And, there are other days, when it is very hard to have complete confidence in the numbers that you came back with. For example, if there is only one route race on the card, you don't have much to work with. Or, if there is a change in weather.

This is an awesome thread. Thanks, guys.

Thanks, DrugS.

--Dunbar