Tiago's Beyers???
 

Can someone please tell me Tiago's Beyers by winning the SA derby??

100

Hey you know Tiago can get the distance of the KY Derby since his brother Giacomo did it.

All the horses could be gasping for air in the stretch drive, while Tiago can just mow them down :D

While he seems to have nicely inherited that same grinding style of Giacomo's.....I think people will be making a big mistake if they put too much emphsis on whoelse his dam dropped.

Giacomo actually ran several very good races leading into his Santa Anita Derby effort---where he got no pace to work with. Giacomo had only been passed by one single horse in his career going into the Derby, and he had an abysmal trip in that race, his 3rd place effort in the Sham.

Tiago, may have improved markedly (off his lousy form) with the removal of blinkers---but, he's going to have a lot more to run down in the Kentucky Derby than some Ohio-bred sprinter/miler type like King of the Roxy.

What's interesting about Giacomo and Tiago's dam---was that she (Set Them Free) was a confirmed sprinter. I believe she was 2nd in career debut to Champion Eliza...before winning a couple stakes at age two. She won five races in her career, four of them stake races, her average winning distance was just 5.8 furlongs.

DrugS,

As always.. great post... Another interesting part of Tiago's effort?

:24.3 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :23.4 - :13.0

Find another Derby runner who has finished the 9f in under :38.0.. And three sub :24.0 quarters? No one has come close... And John Shirreffs has to be respected. I'd invite people to read this piece on Smith, Giacomo and Shirreffs for more insight into what we may be dealing with come Derby Day:

http://www.derbytrail.com/writings/display.php?ID=10

The best part of the win by Tiago is Pleasant Tap, whom I love, and is totally under-appreciated as a sire.. Anyone scoffing at Tiago's Derby chances will be making a mistake.

So beyers are a piece of poop like I have always said.

;)

Mr B. with the E. Coli abscess reference so early in the morn......


Are you more of a sheets guy or do you prefer the commented PP's you spoke of previously. Beyers are screening tools in my book nothing more... they get you past the first filter of who you don't like.

I am very intriqued by this horse though after watching the replays on all races back to back. Derby moneymaker ITM possible here if the last race didn't leave him empty for months.

Where are you focusing your efforts today Mr B

I am not a beyer guy, that's for sure. If anything, when someone tells me what a great beyer a horse had, or this horse had the best beyer, I toss it right away. I guess I can say I use beyers to predict failures, or what the new younger crowd calls, "THE BOUNCE". As you know, just recently, we had a major beyer adjustment on a Derby contender, it didn't matter, he ran like crap. Andy has made millions on this so called theory, but I can't remember when he has picked a derby winner, easy as it should be, with all the great beyer input, yet, a failed mission.
History is just that, History, and to play from that history, without understanding to new requirement, is down right wrong in determining today's outcome. As the day progresses at the track, so does the tracks environment, so to look back at history, with a completely different gang to contend with, what good is that history lesson? I say absolutely nothing at all.

With only 22 days left at the Big A, I am going to look more at some routes until closing day, and be prepared to toss half the field with horses that have been on the upside all winter, and ready to go to the shelf. Fresh horse flesh, 2nd of the shelf is a good place to start looking for winners. Dirt to turf 1ster's looking for a fast pace to collapse, and Lone speed in a sprint.

I will be at Belmont opening day, hoping for a better card than last year.

im very happy we agree on something

I'm not really in love with this horse either, but I think the two he ran by could be decent horses especially with Pletcher's guidance and in the right spot. No idea what Sam P was doing up so close to the pace. Blinkers off next time?

I tend to agree, I don't think you can ignore him. In any other year, yeah maybe. But I just do not see many performances this year where horses finish up strongly.

Also the SA Derby was run with an honest pace, not like the Sham.
He's got things working against him for sure, but not one I will be ignoring.

I love Pleasant Tap too, it's great to see a sire with stamina and soundness. Premium Tap may end up being the "big horse" he needs to get more notariety.

Here's my issue with Tiago. He beat a miler (at best), a horse that's maybe 7th in his own barn, and a bunch of nobodies. Not to mention the horse that beat him easily in his last start got clobbered in a 2nd string prep at even money.

On top of that, I have an issue with the Beyer. There were 6 dirt races on Saturday:
MSW 3yo's at a mile 1:37.62
MSW 3U at 6.5F 1:17.34
G2 Potrero Grande at 6F 1:14.83
40k Optional claimer at 6F 1:08.87
40k Starter allowance at 6F 1:10.35

So by my calculations if the don't split the variant for 2 turns, a 100 Beyer in the SA Derby gives the Potrero Grande about a 121-122. Smokey is one fast beast but I'm not sure I'm buying that (and they actually gave him a 115 I think). The allowance would be in the 115 range, which also seems awfully high. I think the number should be more like a 94, not splitting the variant.

The one thing I can say positive is the consistent fractions analysis is very positive in determining a Derby winner and I'm sure he'll stay the 10F.

I MUST disagree,Steve.This horse,Tiago ,had absolutely no part of these fractions at all.At the quarter,he was ninth out of ten horses,the half,still ninth,Three quarters,he moved to seventh,the stretch,he moved to fifth,obviously because the other horses were tiring.If you want to use these fractions,the horses who ran best were the ones who SET,or were a part of these fractions.That would be Liquidity,Sam P,King of the Roxy,and Black Seventeen.Tiago was nowhere to be found,and got lucky to inherit this win.It is completely foolish to think this horse has any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby,and those of you who wager on this fluke win do so at your own risk!!!!

Good post Kimmeastar!! I kind of agree with you here. He won it passing tired horses and eventualy wore down a horse who is a miler at best.

But I have to say that Giacomo did the same thing in the derby by passing tired horses too. He is also by pleasant tap so distance is not a problem. I did like the way he weaved through horses going in and out without problems. He is an exotics possible in the derby.

Only problem I have is that none of the horses you mentioned actually won the race. How can you say with certainty that, if the fractions were slower, Tiago would not have been closer and just won anyway? Of those you mentioned, only KOTR was moving halfway decently through the last part of the race which was run in decent time. It is just as likely -- perhaps more likely -- these horses didn't want any part of 9F as it is that Tiago lucked into his win.

He was giving experience to all the name horses in the race and passed all of them. To me, it's no fluke. He's headed the right way and is in the mix at the bottom of the contenders 'list' at this point.

I will say that with comparable post positions, I prefer Tiago over NoBiz. I'm very hopeful that I find a matchup with these two head to head.

Kimme.. (and I guess Eajinabi)..

I'm sorry, but you're completely 100% wrong and are missing the important point.. I'm not aware there was a requirement that a horse lead a race at every point of call to be allowed the win. Tiago's fractions aren't presented as important in context of the Santa Anita Derby. They're important in the context of how he projects to run in the Derby. You look for horses in the Derby that run even SUB :25.0 fractions and can close solidly (<:38.0 is generally a great place to start looking for contenders). Running 5 quarter miles of :24.2 equals 10f in 2:02.0 and that wins most Derbies. Tiago's splits and SUB :37.0 closing time Saturday protend very well for Derby success.

As for the horses who did the heavy lifting in the Santa Anita Derby, they don't hand out any particular special awards for that. Black Seventeen and Liquidity did not run "better races" than Tiago Saturday. Sam P. was too close to the pace and is a better horse than he demonstrated. King of the Roxy, who isn't running in the Derby based on his performance Saturday, is a courageous overachiever who ran a winning race at 8.5f. Unfortunately, they've been running the Santa Anita Derby at 9f for a number of years.

Is Tiago a Derby lock? No.. But in the hands of Shirreffs, off that effort Saturday and with four weeks to fine tune, if you don't think Tiago can win May 5th, you're mistaken.

Better said than me.

As much as it pains me to point it out -- Cowtown Cat came home in 37.3 at Hawthorne Saturday, too. He obviously was allowed to loaf through the early stages, but at least he came home well too. (EDIT: Just watched the race again, and Jara wasn't all over him either. Urging him along and took to him with the whip a bit, but wasn't all out aboard him in any sense late)

If Tiago ran anywhere outside of California, Kimmeastar would not be bashing him.

Nothing more, nothing less

War Emblem won out pf the IL Derby. SNS was highly regarded out of the race last year. So much of the Ky Derby is based on post, pace and trip that it's impossible to rule out any of the horses that ran well in their preps and especially those that finished up well at this point.

It seems like it never fails, the Illinois Derby winner either runs just fast enough or gets a big enough Beyer to have everyone talking about them. While Cowtown Cat isn't even his trainer's best, he still has to be talked about because he went about his business pretty well.

NT

If you project CQ final 1/16 in the LA derby, out to an 1/8, he too qualifies as an under 38 sec. 3/8.

I agree w/ much of Kasept's posts but one thing about projecting Tiago to run 24.2 the whole way around the track, that's being a bit over ambitious, isnt it more likely that Tiago runs his final 1/8 at CD in the same speed he ran his final 1/8 at SA? in 13 sec.

I dont see Tiago as some sort of closer like Ponder or Whirlaway or whatever. He's not gong to close in 24.2. More like 26 or maybe a little less.

What does that translate into a 2:03 derby? Okay, these are only projections and he may run better. Sounds to me like he can hit the board but a win not likely.

But kasept is onto something w/ those even fractions, those really are quite even, a horse that can run like that can have something left at the end for sure. What do you think he can run the final quarter in? Thats the big question.

Tiago sure appears to fit in this year's race...I prefer Dr Roman's Performance Figures to Beyers...he was awarded a -45 for the SA Derby, certainly that puts him in the mix. Nobiz Like Shobiz had a -55 for the Wood, best numbers of the season (at a distance) so far are Circular Quay's -65 on 3/10 and Street Sense's -60 on 3/17, AGS had a -60 earlier but fell to a -40 in the Wood.

I just think you guys are getting excited over nothing.A horse who wins his maiden by DQ,then inherits a lead from a bunch of tired horses is NOT a contender in the Kentucky derby,in my book.As a 2 year old,this horse did nothing,and yes,he is a California horse who has done nothing outside of California,so the odds are against him.And I will make my prediction now that he will not be the winner of the Kentucky derby.I don't bet on Connections,jockeys,owners,sentimentality,time off,etc.I base my handicapping on face value.If he cannot set or at least attend to solid fractions,and can only win by inheriting a lead,he isn't worth a bet.Good luck if you waste your money on this fluke.He is going to get eaten alive.

Have to agree, the left coast will not run good at CD. SA is a set up track for that last effort. won't repeat.

Way too early to say things like I'm reading here...I for one have absolutely no idea who is gonna run well this year...and neither does anyone else! Once we have the field set with post positions, then you can say with a little confidence that this horse or that horse will run well but now...??? Tiago is an interesting horse...to say he won't move forward now is well...interesting! Every year at this time, folks post that they "know" this or that...hell, I don't even know which horses will be in the field...all this is pure speculation!

Of course it is, it started January

What are you talking about? its not that everyone is abuzz over the horse. Steve merely said not to ignore him and that the possibility exists that he could win. That doesn't mean he was predicting a win. Predicting that he won't win is pretty lame and not very bold.

And what monsters are waiting to eat him alive? Who is your pick as of today.

If you ask me its too early to start ruling out a horse like Tiago as having no chance.

in 2005.. everybody was quick to toss out the horses coming out of the SA Derby.. How did they finish in the KY Derby? how about 1st, 5th, 6th..

I am not saying that this horse is a world beater. I also don't see any others in this crop, save possibly Curlin, who I'm not sure how good is/can be.

I can see it's pointless to discuss this and you're simply not willing to learn anything or open to comprehending the topic at hand. But I'll try to address a couple of these saliant points..

Did nothing at 2.. Well, he's by Pleasant Tap who tends to get late developers and didn't make his first start at 2 until Opening Day at Santa Anita, so I'm not sure how much more he could have done.. But he did get a requisite 'start as a 2 year old' if you're looking for Derby voodoo. As a reminder, Charismatic did nothing at 2.. Grindstone had 2 starts as a 2 year old.. Fusaichi Pegasus made one runner up start at 2.. War Emblem won a maiden and ALW race at AP and FG.. Monarchos was 8th and 3rd in his 2 starts as a juvenile.. WHAT'S YOUR POINT?

Hasn't done anything outside California? Silver Charm and Giacomo had never been outside California before the Derby..

Your handicapping? I guess pedigree has no place in it either.. His dam has already produced a Derby winner and his sire was a champion; ran in 4 different Breeders' Cup races finishing 2nd in both the Sprint and Classic. And of course being by Pleasant Tap he should get better with added ground.

Horses 'attending the pace' in the Derby? Recent winners that were at least 8 lengths back after a half mile or 5 lengths back after three quarters in the Derby: Sea Hero; Grindstone; Real Quiet; FuPeg; Monarchos; Giacomo..

you got it, this is the same poster who stated california horses cannot ship and win.....lost all credit as someone with valuable opinion after reading that.

If you read this thread from the beginning,you will see there are a ton of people abuzz about this horse.
I have a right to disagree with all of them and Steve if I want.And he,and you and whoever else,have a right to disagree with me.That is just fine.That is how a forum works.I never said Steve was predicting a win,and that was not the topic we were discussing.Don't know how you got that.As far as my derby horse,I do not have one and will not until the first saturday in May,when I have the DRF in front of me.But I do know that Tiago will not be him.
Monsters?Everything east of California,those monsters.

Name one who ran last weekend and won outside of California.

Also here are the quarters and final 1/8th I came up with Tiago

25 24 23 3/5, 23 4/5, 12 4/5

what is wrong with that? This horse is bred to go farther, he is not really in play in the Derby as he will be overbet. While I respect Drugs opinion I think this horse has more talent then his brother.

If I hear the Santa Anita derby fell apart again I am going to puke. It was a fair race, the pace I have is 107 with a final of 100, hardly a fall apart (I had the derby as 130-100 that Giacomo won, now that is fall apart).

So objectively Tiago made a strong middle move into a fair pace to reach contention, then was able to grind out the win when Roxy got tired late. What is horrible with that for a horse in his fourth start? Sure he probably runs second had Roxy come home strong I would still view the outcome for what is, a well bred distance horse, late developing under strong connections who will run against a week field in a month.

Why is it everyone has to have an agenda when breaking down this colt, seems they are still frustrated over Giacomo if you ask me.

LMFAO!!! Talk about contradicting yourself.

Does Mike Smith provide any negatives?? The Moss's think this horse is better than G-Man

last weekend, you mean one weekend out of 52, out of say 520 weeks the past decade.

give me a break, you lose credibility with statements such as this, an others you throw around. If you say something like this others might not call you out but I will.

:D :D

what do you mean negatives? he sure rode the horse much better last out then victor did.

from what I understand the Moss' want Mike to ride all their horses from here on out and was one of the reasons he is going back to socal. (among others, like riding like **** in ny).

think or hope?:)