Chelokee
 

I like this horse very much. Too bad he wont have enough earnings to secure a spot in the KY derby. His past two races he was checked pretty hard and still he re-rallies. I had a nice win wager on him in the FL derby and I really think he would have won if not compromised. Matz said he is looking toward the preakness for his next. I think this horse could have a future.

Not too many horses get left out of the Derby with 100k in graded stakes earnings (Sunriver and Windward Passage come to mind) and it's my understanding that if they can get into the Derby, they'll run him. They likely wont run him in the Lexington to accumulate any more graded stakes earnings.

well he is 22 on the list so as of now he is out and there is still 4 major preps to go. Only way in is if others who have the earnings dont decide to go.

Birdbirdistheword has NO business going. . . I doubt Adore the Gold will go now. . .

His run in the Florida Derby was very impressive..I believe if Duh-minguez shoots through the hole on the rail, he gets at least a shot for second..Instead, he checked, and Chelokee is out of the derby (barring defections)..The horse that impressed me the most besides the Daddy was Notional..I think that the derby is going to set up perfectly for him..He has enough tactical speed to keep him midpack, and is an impressive stretch runner as well..Cant wait for the upcoming preps, and of course, the big dance...

I don't know how well the Derby is going to set up for closers this year though. Stormello's the obvious pace, but unless he goes all Songandaprayer and runs a 44 and change for the first half, I don't think the pace will compromise the stalkers in the race. My point? I think the race is going to set up better for a Street Sense or a Great Hunter instead of Notional or Circular Quay.

agree neither of those horse have any business in the starting gate

i think the race will setup perfectly for nobiz

Or Nobiz like Shobiz, yes.

The same NObIz that was a mortal lock to win the Fountain of Youth??:eek:

lol yes that same nobiz im expecting a HUGE PERFORMANCE this saturday!

1 Street Sense $1,332,000
2 Scat Daddy $1,308,500
3 Circular Quay $1,116,134
4 Great Hunter $730,000
5 Stormello $642,900
6 Birdbirdistheword $637,000
7 Notional $472,000
8 Jack Junior $400,000
9 Hard Spun $360,000
10 Nobiz Like Shobiz $328,500
11 King of the Roxy $280,000
12 Xchanger $202,890
13 Curlin $180,000
14 Officer Rocket $153,260
15 Cobalt Blue $150,000
16 Cowtown Cat $137,253
17 Zanjero $130,000
18 Ketchikan $120,000
19 Sedgefield $120,000
20 Liquidity $116,200
21 Adore the Gold $114,387
22 Bwana Bull $110,000
23 Any Given Saturday $102,969
24 Chelokee $100,000
25 Teuflesberg $85,442
26 Sam P. $56,500
27 Joe Got Even $56,445
28 Air Commander $50,000
29 Storm in May $27,500
30 Summer Doldrums $21,334


So lets see what happens here for Chelokee to get in. Stormello should probably not run. His outspoken owner/trainer has indicated he will not unless the horse shows he wants to. Birdbird should not run. But the Giacomo effect might take place for a hoplessly slow horse. Jack Junior is in other parts and does not appear capable... right? If Nobiz bombs in the Wood and pulls some strange act again with blinkers, he most likely would not go. I think if Curlin or Cobalt Blue bomb, they wont go. If Liquidity shows poorly in Santa Anita, I doubt he would go. The Blue grass is loaded. I would think that if Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, or Great Hunter run a ratty race(no clean excuses), you would get rid of one of these (or on the other hand, horses considered lesser Zanjero, Sedgefield could lose both). So the Blue Grass could possibly be a big eliminator. Ketchikan does poorly in the Arkansas. I dont know if Pletcher sends King of the Roxy at the distance. Cowtown cat... if he blows it, I dont know as Pletcher has a wealth of runners.

But then you have the problem of horses below, like Summer Doldrums, Sam P., etc... doing the opposite and showing they might belong. Looks tough, but not impossible, even with no injuries.

Then again if the poly trackers that lose, they might really look at it as a prep and go anyway. Why did I even type this, its too far out.

I think the lightly raced Curlin is going to break another tradition and move forward in the Ark or maybe the Ak derby. Instead of not having the foundation to get the derby distance, I think he has more room to improve and he has shown the talent in his two races.

I could see someone in Pletcher's situation running a horse just to keep a horse like Chelokee out of the Derby or better yet scratching after the draw.

I like Chelokee.

I dislike Scat Daddy

but the SD horse keeps beating me.

i read that jack junior is coming for the triple crown races, i dont know if that means the derby or not ?

from thedowneyprofile.com

Jack Junior Less Likely for Derby Now. But the Preakness may be in his sights. Eamonn Connolly, racing manager for owner Roldvale Limited, told British Racing Post that Britain's 2000 Guineas remains a possibility for Jack Junior (Worth Watching), but he is also being considered for the Preakness, the second jewel of America's Triple Crown.

"He's an exciting horse to have. The Guineas may be a bit early for him, and although it is expensive to go there, the Preakness is a bit later and we know he handles the dirt."--Eamonn Connolly

Jack Junior finished second in Saturday's Group 2 UAE Derby in just his third overall start, and his first this year. He earned $400,000 for the effort.

thank you

And now we read about CQ. The bottom of the list looks a little better. Chelokee gets a bit closer.

Is that the maiden that was second in the UAE Derby?

Xchanger, Birdbird and King of the Roxy are not likely for the Derby. Adore the Gold is questionable as is Stormello. I don't know if Sedgefield is really being considered.
That puts Chelokee "in." The problem is that several rivals behind him still have races and could vault by him. Summer Doldrums, Sam P and Teuflesberg could keep him out.

we dont know for sure yet about CQ and there are more preps to be run, the santa anita derby is very very weak a longshot could win that race and come from out of nowhere and make the starting gate, i think tiago will run huge in the santa anita derby... i guess my point is, i think chelokee is a huge longshot to make the starting gate at this point

if king of the roxy wins the santa anita derby or even if he runs a big second i'd be shocked if he dident run in the derby especially with ravel being out for pletcher.

I dont know about huge, but longshot yes. Nonetheless I think the CQ news puts him a bit closer. I would agree with the other posters that something is wrong and they are hoping some significant problem gets better. Preps are preparations for the Derby I believe.

I dislike Scat Daddy

but the SD horse keeps beating me

Aint that the truth. I have never really cared for him but the sucker keeps running good races. Kinda hard to knock one that keeps winning.;)

Sedgefield is probably Millers number two 3yr old. Dominican has only run once this year and won but his BC was ok even if he didnt threaten.

Linny,

Yes.. Jack Junior. Pretty intriguing given trainer Brian Meehan who is as sharp
a conditioner as there is in the world. For that colt to turn in the effort he did off two 7f grass starts in September, is incredible. And the fact that he was ONLY 50-1 in the race gives an indication that Euro punters were hip to the possibility that Jack Junior was ready to run.

Indeed, off the form, that colt should have been 200-1 against Asiatic Boy and Eu Tambem, who all but failed to show up.

Of course if would actually win a race.....

I do not think Owners/trainers will bypass the derby off of one bad race. If curlin or cobalt blue bomb in thier next prep I really think they will still go for the derby unless these horses were injured. Its the big dance and this is where every owner/trainer is targeting for.

Honestly BIRDBIRD should bypass cause he had 2 bad races. Sam P. will make it on the list after winning this weekends SA DERBY.

He better tell Liquidity that!

I bet he will run

i bet he will finish 18-20 somewhere in there

I think he has no chance but McP loves the spotlight even if he has zero chance.

i see what your saying, it just bothers me that a horse that has no chance will run and a up and coming horse like chelokee might have to sit out.

Exactly right...which is why the system is dysfunctional. Congratulations for Delta for having a $1 million race, but it must be stripped of its graded status if the system stays like this. The WinStar Derby has no grade, neither the Southwest and those races have had more Derby contenders than the Delta Jackpot.

NT

He probably doesn't 'deserve' a spot because he was third in one graded stakes race either.

I favor the system of grade 1 money is counted 100%, grade 2 is counted 75%, Grade 3 is counted 50% and listed stakes $ counts for 25%

I agree Cannon, a "sliding scale" using more points for G1's. Maybe give partial points for sprints vs routes etc.

Matz knew he was putting all his eggs in one basket with Chelokee. Last summer at Saratoga, I knew who this horse was but most folks didn't. Everyone was asking about him. Matz was high on him and Prado rode him for some works. Matz knew that he was not Babaro though. When he lost that allowance in KY last fall then had a slight setback he knew he would probably get in 1 graded prep.
Now he has to hope others drop out or change plans and run in something like the Lexington. He gambled and may have missed the big pot. Of course in the long run his horse may benefit.

yes he will