TG Sheet players...Scat Daddy question
 

Do you see a negative reaction coming into this race, based on the 1 he ran last time. Based on a short history, rubber ball here?

Nope I see a better race than last time. He matched his 2 year old top. 3rd in the cycle. All systems go.

Just remember with all the speed that appears to be in here,is it hard to repeat that same effort ? Have a funny feelin he does not show his best here.

but he reacted bad last time he hit this level. I am a fan, not afraid to admit it. I think it sets up well for him, if he can repeat last effort.

He reacted as a two year old to a big number. That's normal. Plus he did it in the Juvy which can be a really tough task for a 2 yr old with a full field and trouble in the race....Make no mistake, I am no fan of Scat Daddy going forward, but I highly doubt he is up the track in this.

Be Nice.

:p

agreed...didnt mean to infer he would win the derby, just speaking of this field, and "like" fields. Just trying to work through the probability of repeating a similar effort.

Thanks for your input.

As always you try to beat the fave, but some in here actually need to step up their game to beat him tomorrow. I think that's what's missing here. I'd venture to guess he'd run a 1 again. Don't see why that can't get this done.

I like him to win the derby.

as good a chance as any right now Cajun...wouldnt try to talk you down off of him.

I also think he's in for a step back tomorrow.

I think that Bird could be in for a big race tomorrow afternoon. Not my favorite horse in the world, but he ran a decent race first off the layoff and I think he can move forward off of that.

I love Notional and have had him at the top of my Derby list for awhile now, so I expect a big race out of him.

But I think that there are a few fringe contenders here in Imawildandcrazyguy and Birdbirdistheword.

For the win, barring a pace meltdown for the aforementioned two -- I'd say we're looking at Notional and Stormello.

NOOOO WAYYYYYY

I really don't understand why everyone is so convinced that there's a ton of speed in this race . . . There really isn't. . . Adore the Gold walks with Chelokee and Notional underneath. . .

A Formal Gold going routes isn't my cup of tea. He didn't get 9 furlongs last time, what makes you think he will this time?...Chelokee looks slow to me on the numbers. Notional could do it.

I honestly don't care for Stormello here. I think that Imawildandcrazyguy has a good chance at hitting the board and I think that Zito's horse looks decent too (to finish in the super.)

I'm not a huge fan of that work he just had. You've got to wonder if that took anything out of him... at least I am.

He didn't get 9F last time?! He lost by ONE LENGTH. . . Plus- go watch the replay head-on and see how many lengths he lost at the break

Since this is a thoro thread.
He ran a 4 last time, so his numbers are going backwards. Add the suicide work and I can't see him winning this. He is the one most likely to X in this race for my money.

That work doesn't scare me because I think the fast time was a function of the track. . . I also don't think Stormello will be 100% after his second cross-country journey and the fact that his flight was delayed may not give him enough time to acclimate. . .

Chelokee looks slow to me also,but so did Curlin. Beware Here.

Alright I JUST LOST EVERYTHING I ****ED WROTE

WTF?

Curlin is slow. He won a slow race as a slow horse. It happens.

I prefer Adore over Stormello...but maybe even Wildncrazy more then either of them.

Notional - great progression after that monster Debut, closely getting back to that number which makes him a strong Derby candidate

wildcrazyguy - no

Scat Daddy - I agree with Randall, him getting back to that number means he is in great form. he might very well explode in this race, which is fine with me because I am not playing him in the derby

Adore - no

Stormello - another derby prospect. I am praying that he runs about a 2 or a 2.5 in this race so I can just unload on him in the Derby. Derby will be 3rd race off the layoff and I expect a 2nd or 3rd here. Hope he doesn't run his eyeballs out

Cheloadsfiaolee - no, too slow, will get overplayed because of Barbaro angle

Boggs - like the pair up from last, could mean move forward, probably not forward enough

John Star - should have sold when had the chance

Bird - Ran his two year old number off the shelf, which is HUGE. According to Jerry Brown of TG, that race was better then it looked out of him with that '!' notion on his sheet. Beware tomorrow and also depending tomorrows race, beware in the derby

So, all in all, for Tomorrow's race, I like Scat Daddy and Bird to run well. But, thinking ahead to the Derby, I think both Notional and Stormello have favorable sheets and with slight move forwards tomorrow, could be great plays on Derby Day

Do you consider this a slow race ?

I had this whole write up going down and I f'n lost it....no idea how...I just did the condensed version above

A few more things about ATG and then I'm done. . .

It seems to me that ATG is just a very fast-working horse-
He ran a :58 5F and :59 5F before the Swale and then ran a 102 Beyer

I know Andy, etc. . . consider "trainerspeak" worthless, but the fact that Gorham said that the work was a function of track speed makes a lot of sense. . .

I'm not a big Tgraph follower but based on the Beyers it looks like he should run close to a career best here. . . he ran a top off the lay-off, then regressed a little bit and will now be 3rd off the lay-off in this race. . .

I might be rethinking Scat in this race. That last was really huge, I am on Bird now

My hope is that Stormello and Notional run good races and good numbers so I have reasons to get nuts on the Derby

Don't know. I'll wait to see. A few horses in here could run a fast number tomorrow.

Bird's line, while interesting gets less so considering the post. The wraps did come off last time, if they are back on I'd steer clear. He could be in the tri for sure.

He ran his best race with the wraps on. . . But he won't win this one either way. . .

Your wrap theory was blown out of the water there, he won with them first on.

That is a pretty solid number off a 100 day layoff Randall.....He moves forward a little, he could be a great price play come the Derby. I do worry about only 21 days and shipping, and also about FG numbers being somewhat fast sometimes