Florida Derby Entries (enclosed with M/L odds)
 

Looks like all the key players drew well.
Courtesy of Bloodhorse.com

The Florida Derby (gr. I), $1,000,000 guaranteed, Gulfstream Park, March 31, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles, approx. post 5:30 EDT
PP. Horse, Weight, Owner, Trainer, Jockey, Odds

1. Notional, 122, Robbie Albarado, 4-1
2. Imawildandcrazyguy, 122, Bejarano, 15-1
3. Scat Daddy, Edgar Prado, 5-2
4. Adore the Gold, Cornelio Velasquez, 6-1
5. Stormello, Victor Espinoza, 3-1
6. Chelokee, Ramon Dominguez, 8-1
7. Boogie Boggs, Joe Bravo, 8-1
8. Johannesburg Star, Rajiv Maragh, 30-1
9. Birdbirdistheword, Manoel Cruz, 12-1

That seals it, Adore the Gold will win.

I like Notional here a lot. I don't understand why Stormello is 3/1 while Notional is 4/1 but hey, ML odds often make little sense. Notional's big problem will be that he might be a bit directionless, considering his jock is busy "burning in hell."

Birdbird in the 9 hole. The 9 hole is 0-9 in races 1 1/8 mile or longer. The horse that is intriguing to me is Chelokee.

Time off.

And the fact that Stormello has already run a very game race over this course.

The betting public may still agree with you however.

Good draw for Scat Daddy. :cool:

By far the best pick of this bunch is Johannesburg Star. Every time I have seen that horse run I have thought:
"Wow, all he needs is to move up to G1 competition and stretch out to 9 furlongs and he will be unbeatable!!!"

Tough spot for Adore the Gold with Stormello directly outside of him, unless Stormello goes 23.1 and 46.1 again, which I'm not expecting. In that case, Adore the Gold might just get the perfect trip sitting a length or so off the speed. I'm expecting Chelokee to take alot of "wise guy" money, but I just don't think he's the real deal.

Uh-oh. We are thinking alike again.... :D

How about that 5f workout on 3-24 for Adore the Gold? 57.60

According to the trainer it was "exactly what they wanted." Yeah right.
I am sure his instructions to the rider were: "Okay I want you to pretend that this is the BC Sprint. Go try to win it!"

Couldn't agree more. . . I was hoping for 5-1 so I'm loving 6-1 . . .

Notional is a gift despite Albarado at 4-1 but have to assume he will be lower come post time. Imawildandcrazyguy at 15-1 could spice up your exotics with switch to hot Bejarano and strong possibility of lively pace

Do you really think the pace will be lively?

I am in complete agreement.....

Stormello and ATG should help. But then again I respect your point because Gulfstream does play to speed especially on big days

Only if he's washed out, Dell. :p

He'll be making bubbles coming down the stretch.

watch j'burg upset and throw everyones thoughts on the derby right out the window.

I think him being in the superfecta would qualify as an upset.

After watching the Fountain of Youth head-on I realized that Adore the Gold lost way more at the start than I thought. . . He probably lost 3+ lengths to Stormello. . .

Maybe I am thinking of a different race (they all begin to get conflated in my mind) but didn't they come home in like 13 4/5 for the last furlong in the FOY. None of the horses in that race really impressed me as much as Notional in the Risen Star.
I don't have the pp in front of me so I can't say for sure what I will do in this race, but Notional's San Rafael and Risen Star were pretty impressive. Circular Quay is a legitimate colt, and I don't think he was going to get to Notional that day even if hadn't found traffic. I liked him in the Risen Star when he wasn't getting a ton of respect, and it seems like not much has changed since then.
Oh well, I hope he does go off at 4/1. I think the race should set up for him fairly nicely.

I would expect Stormello to be bet more than Scat Daddy. And if he's not, he should be.

After watching his last race about 15 times, I think Chelokee is the REAL DEAL.

I was just watching that race, which was very nice, but I'm still not totally convinced that he can step up to G1 company. . .

This is a very interesting race with Adore The Gold and Stormello. It appears that there is not going to be an easy lead for anyone in this race. I dont think it sets up for a closer. I think it sets up for a stalker.

Boogie Boggs... on the board!

considering his jock is busy "burning in hell."

Thanks alot, coke all over the keyboard this morning. Poor Robby, come on people he has won many a race for yall "by a nose"!! ;)

That is what impressed me about the race as well, Here is what I get by looking at the chart and looking at the fractions:

ScatDaddy: final 1/8 13.15; final Quarter 26 estimated.

Stormello 13.75
No biz 13.53
Adore 13.8

WHen a horse comes home in 27 sec. he's about finished. If they ran 10f on that surface with the same horses getting the same trip, etc. Then it looks like three of them wont get 10f. ScatDaddy seems fine.

So like you, that is what impressed me the most..

Question for someone who would know this- (Cannon Shell?)
 

Could the fact that Notional and Stormello's flight to GP was delayed have any impact on how they run?

Is there a certain amount of time that a horse needs to get acclimated after a flight like that?