Bluegrass or Florida Derby
 

These two races are shaping up to be two of the best Derby Preps (field wise) in many years.

Florida Derby Possibles - Adore The Gold, Notional, Scat Daddy and Stormello
Bluegrass Possible - Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter

Going to be a wonderful month and 1 week.

With that probables list for the Bluegrass looks more Ky Derby Jr vs Fl Derby which has one legit Derby/non-sprinter horse in Scat Daddy and possibly Stormello

Id expect Hard Spun, and Street Sense to run in the Arkansas Derby

Really, why do you say that? Carl has always been committed to the Blue Grass since the winter. Why would be change now?

Hard Spun is obviously not going to the Arkansas Derby after his loss in the Southwest where his trainer clearly said that he did not like the Oaklawn track. I have heard he is going to the Bluegrass, not sure if that has changed, but pretty sure he is not going to Oaklawn.

They said after the Lane's End that Hard Spun was going to the Bluegrass. After his performance on the poly at Turfway, they have a good shot at that one.

I think Hard Spun will be onto the Bluegrass, where we will really be able to see what he is all about. On another note, Scat Daddy will win the Florida Derby. Stormello jumps out to the lead (like Sharp Humor last year) and Scat Daddy manages to get to him down the stretch in a battle (like Barbaro did last year). This is how I'd like it to set up atleast.

I was thinking with a horse like Any Given Saturday that desperately needs graded earnings they'd try the Coolmore Lexington.

I think Hard Spun will be in the Bluegrass. I think it is unfortunate he will run on polytrack again since it is hard to tell at this point whether the Lanes End was a performance that can come on dirt or if Hard Spun really liked the poly. Don't know that question can be answered in the Bluegrass even though it is a different type of polytrack.

Does anyone know if anyone decent is going to the Arkansas Derby? I am really surprised that Pletcher would not send Any Given Saturday to Arkansas instead of putting him in the Bluegrass.

Very good point. I would also agree with you as well.

Pletcher already knows that AGS loves the poly at Keeneland. Watch the move he makes on the turn in his allowance win there.

Some Arkansas Derby horses: Teuflesburg, Zanjero, Officer Rocket, Curlin, Deadly Dealer I believe, probably Ketchikan ... any others?

The Wood is free money for any of these that can really run. There isn't anybody top flight pointing for it.

Nobiz?

yeah plus doesnt Shug have a derby hopeful

Only the derby winner will be there.

Scat Daddy is running in the Florida Derby, not the Wood. :p

I thought Circular Quay was goin to Ark???

Lexington should been a good race when all is said and done due to the fact of graded earnings. You should have a full field trying to get some more cash so they dont have to sweat getting in.


Also Sedgefield should be headed to the Bluegrass and if he runs high-- KY Derby for a Turf horse

Hard to say that NoBiz is not top flight. The Arkansas Derby is for $1M and it seems to me that out of the FD, BG, Wood and AD the AD presents the least competition. I can understand Hard Spun not going that route, but not sure why AGS would want to face SS again when there is an easier race on the same day. Maybe it is that he is a known on that surface. I thought that CQ was going to the Wood, but I have not checked lately. If that is the case, that explains why Pletcher would not take AGS to the AD.

All you have to do is beat Circular Quay and Nobiz, and you get all the "free money" you can count. It's the SA Derby that looks light.

Is Nobiz going to the Wood? Good.
I thought Blue Grass. But I guess that would make sense with Tagg, and he's proven over the Aqu strip.

I heard Arkansas for CQ. Has this changed?

I agree about AGS needing earning but remember, he'll be one of the top 2 choices in the Blue Grass, with a %750k purse. If he's one of the choices, why should he duck the spot and go elsewhere?

AGS could run in the coolmore lexington I imagine, but the 2 weeks is obviously the issue. He needs graded earnings, although if we don't see any more upsets, I think he gets in regardless.
Pletcher's runners:
CQ - Wood
Scat Daddy - florida derby
Any Given Saturday - Bluegrass
Cowtown Cat - Illinois Derby
Sam P - Santa Anita Derby
Deadly Dealer - Arkansas Derby

The Bluegrass will be loaded, but the timing (3 weeks out) travel logistics (easy van ride to Churchill after) and the forgiving polytrack surface are all too important to pass up for horses who are already in the derby with earnings and just need a final tune up.

Ags is not in the top 30 right now but it looks like about 12-14 of those on the list are not considered Derby candidates right now. AGS could probably get in with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. I suppose the Lexington is a last ditch chance but running that often is not Pletcher's style.
I know AGS was second in the KY Jockey Club and the TB Derby, how much $$$ does he have? I'm guessing about $70k in graded earnings...

He's at about $102,000.

Cakes, I think you are right, the TB derby was $300k so he made $60k there. The 2yo race where he was second was about $200k, I think.

Since AGS is on the fringe of earnings my point was that he is sure to get in with a 1st or 2nd at either the BG or AD, the difference being his chances are better in the AD since it seems to be coming up a bit light as opposed to facing a better field in the Bluegrass. Although, if he does have $102K he is likely to get in as I don't think a horse with over $100K has failed to get in the Derby yet. Just thought that Graded earnings were an issue, if you want to make sure you can get enough to get in, Arkansas seems to be an easier place than BG. Forgot anout Santa Anita, that it is coming up light as well.

last I heard it was the Wood for CQ... I wasn't aware if that changed.

You can always identify who is playing TVG Fantasy and who isn't. :D

I'm guessing the cut-off for graded earnings will be closer to $150,000-$175,000 this year than the $100,000 of years past.

Derby earnings level has been about $135,000-$160,000..

The fields as they appear currently:

FLORIDA DERBY:

Hal's My Hope, J. Rivera
Boogie Boggs, J. Bravo
J'burg Star, R. Maraagh
Notional, R. Albarado
Stormello, V. Espinoza
Scat Daddy, J. Velasquez
Adore the Gold, E. Prado
Chelokee, M. Guidry
Imawildandcrazyguy, R. Bejarano
Bold Start, Manny Cruz


ILLINOIS DERBY:

Cowtown Cat*
Cobalt Blue
Freesgood
Catman Running


WOOD MEMORIAL:

Nobiz Likeshobiz
Circular Quay
Sightseeing
Summer Doldrums
Sir Whimsey
Cowtown Cat*


SANTA ANITA DERBY:

Sam P.
Boutrous
Bwana Bull
Liquidity
Medici Code
King of the Roxy
Song of Navarone


ARKANSAS DERBY:

Ketchikan
Teufelsberg
Officer Rockett
Deadly Dealer
Curlin


BLUE GRASS:

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Zanjero
Birdbirdistheword
Great Hunter

Song of Navarone is reported to be out of the SA Derby with a quarter crack as per the DRF...

Thanks for the list!

Damn, that sucks. I liked him!

I think this further begs the question, why wouldn't Any Given Sat. pass on the Bluegrass for the Arkansas Derby? More money, weaker field? Does the Grade 1 mean that so much that they would risk missing the Derby if they run out of the money at Keeneland?

I usually don't care much for the Sunland Derby runners but this one seemed to have some talent.

Still possible for the Preakness I'm sure.

The G1 is very important for the connections of AGS as he is owned by WinStar Farm which is like Coolmore Light. They are a stud operation meaning that racing for them is a means to an end, breeding. As a KY based outfit, the win at KEE is significant as well.
Arky clearly looks easier, he'd be 1-2 there, but I figure he'll be 2-1 in the Blue Grass anyhow. It's not like he's got only an outside shot there.

Updated Earings list (horses highlighted are injured, retired or unlikely to enter in Derby). There are others on the list that are probably long shots to make it as well (BirdBird, Kingoftheroxy, Sedgefield, etc..)
I believe Any Given Saturday is around 33 or so on the list.

1) Street Sense
2) Dreaming of Anna
3) Circular Quay
4) Holy Roman Emperor
5) Great Hunter
6) Scat Daddy
7) BirdBirdistheword
8) Stormello
9) Hard Spun
10 Rags to Riches
11) Nobizlikeshobiz
12) Notional
13 King of the Roxy
14 Romance is Diane
15 Xchanger
16 Tiz Wonderful
17 Pirate’s Deputy
18 Kirklees
19 Mount Nelson
20 Curlin
21 Officer Rocket
22 Cobalt Blue
23 Horse Greeley
24 Admiral of the Fleet
25 Cowtown Cat
26 Skip Code
27 Zanjero
28 Ketichikan
29 Sedgefield
30 Liquidity

Pirates Deputy just worked the other day. I hope they don't decide to throw him in a prep like the Lexington where he runs 4th or 5th and then they press on to the Derby with him and cost a more deserving horse a shot.