my derby top 10..
 

drum roll please.....

no 10 c q..was not impressed at all..still not sold

no 9 great hunter looked ok out west but hey thats out west

no 8 natonal his fg run leaves questions in my mind

no 7 curlin keeps showing some good stuff

no 6 street sence ..the toll may take its course

no 5 stormello love the way he runs period

no 4 cobolt blue has the right stuff

no 3 adore the gold when push comes to shove he will be in the mix

no 2 nobiz like showbiz.. weather or not the kinks get worked out hes a runner

no 1 chroklee..he will win the ill derby and roll in the kd..

I love Chelokee he is flying low could get a good price on him:D

posters chime in and tell me how wrong i am..

While each entitled to our own opinion, I can't imagine there are ten 3YOs better than Any Given Saturday right now, or five better than Street Sense. Cobalt Blue and Adore the Gold are outsiders right now in my opinion. Nobiz is the same horse he was five months ago and that's a problem. Chelokee ran a bang-up allowance race, but it was just that, an allowance race. Very hard to put that performance ahead of some of the stakes races we've seen.

Anyway, that's just my opinion. Glad to see so much discussion and thanks for putting up your list.

NT

Hooves,
I like your list, especially since there haven't been very many darkhorses to surprise anyone yet. Nobiz, Street Sense, Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Stormello, Any Given Saturday, etc...they've all been on everyone's radar since last Fall.
A horse like Chelokee, For you Reppo or Curlin could turn out to be a late blooming monster.

Still, until I see something more, I'm sticking with the same trio that ran 1-2-3 in the Breeders Cup Juvy and Breeders Futurity. Great hunter, CQ and street sense.

I've been ranking them on my blog lately, and while I've thought Street Sense has been the man since the Arlington race, I'm still not going to put him on top just yet.

1. Notional
2. Street Sense
3. Great Hunter
4. Circular Quay
5. Any Given Saturday
6. Ketchikan
7. Stormello
8. Nobiz Like Shobiz
9. For You Reppo
10. Sam P.

Close mentions for Curlin and Adore the Gold. Not that enamored with many of the others. I don't think Scat Daddy will have any business at the distance, and I think that horses like Chelokee will become wiseguy horses a la SNS last year.

1. Great Hunter
2.-10. who cares!

None of you have the winner on your top ten list:

SCAT DADDY

I was watching the Fountain of Youth again last night. I'm not sure I've seen too many horses who are in full out drives for a half mile actually win a race ( that is since Ramon Encinas disappeared ).

I have no idea what to make of that performance but if he wins the Derby I'll be shocked beyond belief.

Good... I can hardly wait until the first weekend in May.

That was my vibe, dawlin. One of those weird, crystal ball like vibes. (And yes, I've been drinking tonight. I'm entitled. :p )

He's a complete non-contender.

I'm loving this. Remind me tomorrow why I decided to drink tonight.

1. Street Sense
2. Nobiz
3. Great Hunter

after these its a mess. Nobiz and Street Sense will most likely improve. Great Hunter has exactly what it takes methinks. Nobiz and Street Sense have so much talent and upside...

Educate me about this Chelokee...why do people like him...a horse that has won 2 of 5 and has he ever run in a stake?? By this point last year SNS had already run two 1000 plus Beyers.

who are you? pointgiven1985???

This horse has no chance unless he shows vast improvement.

LOL, a 1000 beyer.

Just my take and of course subject to change

1. Nobiz- Still think we havent seen his best, but time is running and out and blinker experiment in Wood has to work

2. Any Given Saturday- Loved his run in TB Derby. Horse is a runner plain and simple

3. Circular Quay- I have read all the talk about him on these boards but I feel he will get right set up Derby Day and will be a part of mix. Of course he needs luck but so do they all that day

4. Notional- Seems very professional at every step. Fla Derby needs to be one more step forward

5. Street Sense- BC Juvy champ surprised me with his comeback. yet need one more still and need to see him overcome some adversity before I personally move hm higher

6. Great Hunter- Still not enamored with him. Though Cal race was Ok. Is bred to run all day and that in itself is a plus

7. Hard Spun- Too early to give up yet, but poor showing Saturday drops him off my list

8. Stormello- Still love his guts. another runner

9. Sam P- Reminds me of Invisible Ink from a few years back. Little bit of a grinder who could spice up exotics in derby. Like his progression

10. Liquidity- My early pick, and will keep him here again and give him one more shot in SA Derby

i agree those are the big 3, street sense and great hunter and proven, nobiz has some issues but if he gets going in the proper direction he's as good or better then the other 2

IMO, after Street Sense it's a mess. You can take the next 8 or 9 on the Dispatch Poll and pull the 2nd fav out of the hat. Not much separates them.

For those enamored with Chelokee, you can get 75-1 at Bookmaker.com or CRIS.

--Dunbar

1. Great Hunter - (Looks to the best of the West, but so did Brother Derek last year :eek: )

2. Any Given Saturday - (Handled the Tampa surface with ease, only gets better for him)

3. No Biz Like Showbiz - (Hard to say any of the 4 "Lost" the FoY)

4. Stormello - (See #3)

5. Street Sense - (set track record in the Tampa quicksand - hope it didn't take too much out of him)

6. Adore the Gold - (See #3)

7. Ketchikan - (hope he stays under the radar - probably like 40-1 on Derby Day!)

8. Scat Daddy - (See #3)

9. Notional - (Meh...)

10. Circular Quay - (See #9)

what ?

Chelokee is the classic wise guy horse, ran a good race and now he can win the derby ? no way.... take 75-1 i wouldnt take 5000-1 on him, he might not even make the starting gate

Be on the lookout for a sternly worded PM, if you haven't received it already.

I might take 5000-1

thats good im sure alot of ppl would, i wouldnt put a penny on a horse that might not even make the race

Are there any posts that you don't respond to?

I would be willing to have been completely wrong all spring about who was going to win the Derby if it meant Chelokee could win, just for the raw satisfaction I would get out of you calling him not even worth 5000-1 odds.

Dub's got a new favorite Derby horse.

I would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

Dub's also going to get a year older tomorrow.......... :D

would take 5000-1 on this horse for at least $1000.

Is there no end to the idiocy?

-----------------


I have a short envelope for you back from Master David.





I hope you will stay with me because I will make it up next week.

1. Street Sense
2. Any Given Saturday
3. Ketchikan
4. Great Hunter
5. Adore the Gold
6. Notional
7. Nobiz Like Shobiz
8. Circular Quay
9. Stormello
10. Curlin

Seriously, if it's that long of a shot, someone should be booking these things through email and making a whole lot of cash.

I'd put money on it just to get 5000-1 on a horse that many people consider among the top 20 Derby contenders. I'd take 5000-1 on Storm in May right now.

I think Great Hunter is thr real thing: He has a pedigree that says Derby, seasoning others are lacking(even off just two starts in 2007 before he goes to the big one), experience at Churchill, a running style that will work, and loads of talent. I think Doug O'Neill and Corey Nakatani have their first Derby winner.:D

That got me thinking. How much money would you have to have available for betting horses (or devoted to horses and other roughly similar investments), to justify what would be considered a "correct" bet on Chelokee of $1000 at 5000-1 odds?

I think Ed Thorp showed that the correct "Kelly" bet was Bankroll*%ADV/odds. ("%ADV" is percent advantage, your expected return on the bet) For a $1000 bet, then, 1000=Bankroll*%ADV/5000. Therefore, Bankroll*%ADV would have to equal 5 million.

If fair odds on Chelokee are as "low" as 250-1, then %ADV is (5000/250) -1 = 19. (or 1900%) Therefore, you'd need a 5000000/19 = $263,000 bankroll to justify that $1000 bet at 5000-1.

But if fair odds on Chelokee are even lower, say 75-1, then a 77K bankroll would be more than enough.

And yes, I'm sure by now you are thinking that "no, there is no end to this idiocy!"

--Dunbar

Actually there is no real limit to how much 5000-1 you could take because you could easily turn around and give people 500-1 on him for whatever you bet....or more.