This Given Saturday
 

Whether you like him or not, this is a terrible spot for Street Sense if anywhere near the morning line 4-5. Any Given Saturday will be low odds himself, but at 8-5, he's a steal against a field where he would be 3-5 if Street Sense weren't taking any money. Swallow your foolish longshot pride and unload on AGS.

Or better yet, unload on Optimistic Steve.

or dont unload on anyone... and play some pick 4's

What is your opinion on this race? I can't see Street Sense being 100%, but maybe he doesn't need to be. Lori and I were told last week that Pletcher's fave derby horse is Any Given Saturday (and Scat Daddy for sentimental reasons.)

Thanks for your opinion... I agree with you, but might take a chance with Optimistic Steve because his odds will probably be too good to pass up. :o

I'm pessimistic about Steve. Gotta stay closer to the front to have a shot.

Haha! That's hilarious. :D

The Naf moved Street Sense up a week according to my recollection. That means the horse is working well. If this horse is working well. He can win without being full bore. Ole Carl says we just want him to run a smooth race. Relaxed, and balanced, dont matter if I win says ole Carl... Horse is too good, even if he struts around in a very even manner.
Just because they dont need to win a prep does not mean they wont win it anyway with a horse like this. This race is a no go for me.

The only horse I like in the Derby preps is Officer Rocket at the right price. And I hate having other horses needing to crater in order to win. But thats what has got to happen in the Rebel for Officer Rocket to win. Curlin, Flying First Class and Teufelsbergerhead have got to do some burning up front. I hate having to count on that. This should be the race to bet if you have to bet a Derby prep. D. Wayne is ready to burn some flesh.

Optimistic Steve is lightly raced, so he's obviously got room to improve.

But we're asking HUGE improvement here to have a chance this. His best race ever is about equal to Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, and Most Distinguished's career WORST race ever, including their respective first times out.

If you're fishing for a price, Most Distinguished seems like a much better option in here because he doesn't get much better, but he doesn't get much worse.

Steve would be a total surprise for the win, if you ask me.

Last time we saw Street Sense he left in his wake Scat Daddy, Circular Quay, and Great Hunter, all three who have since returned and won Graded stakes races.

Last we saw AGS it took what I would call a vigorous handride to put away All I Can Get, a 33:1 shot whose previous claim to fame was winning the Patrickwood for Michigan breds at Great Lakes Downs.

I'm not sold on the "load up on AGS" idea.

Agree.

--Dunbar

for once i totally agree with you, earlier this week i was full blown on making a big win bet on street sense i have definitly backed off that because of value, and a few other things, but i will say that i still think he wins and im strongly considering playing a heavy pick 4 with him keyed on the back end, the horses you mentioned that street sense beat have all been great, you also have stormello who ran huge, so he beat alot of really good horses who have all come back to run well, and for the ppl who say the juvenile was a fluke, i say that in all of his previous starts he was no worst then 3rd, all except for possibly his maiden score were vs very good company.

I'm not dismissing Street Senses performance in the BC juvy, but I think it's irrelevant tomorrow. He hasn't raced in over 4 months, and doesn't have a trip over the tricky surface at Tampa. And most importantly, whether it's trainer speak or not, the horse is not cranked and does not need to win. All he wants is a good performance.
Any Given Saturday needs the Graded Earnings to get to the derby,
and is ready to roll.
Bet against Pletcher and Velasquez at your own risk.

If Any Given Saturday and Grapelli both win tomorrow, Pletcher might have over half of a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby. If this happens, I plan to introduce a bill in the Texas House of Representatives declaring Todd Pletcher "Little Baby Jesus"

Todd went to High School at Madison in San Antonio, so I think this makes him eligible. I dont think he has the earnings in State.

kind of like last year at tampa bay with another horse who was supposed to be a standout, bluegrass cat...... everyone keeps saying he wont be cranked, but he dosent have to be cranked to beat this group, im going to bed now, good luck to everyone tommorw

The BC JUV irrelevant? How can one of the biggest figure two year old races ever not be relevant?

Okay, four months off is something to consider. But I see 10 works since Jan 29th. He hasn't exactly been resting on his laurels.

The tricky Tampa surface? Yeah thats another factor, but he's ran well at several tracks including the poly at Keeneland. I don't have the feeling that he's going to have that much difficulty with it.

As far as trainerspeak goes, well all I can say is bet on trainerspeak at your own risk.:D I think if Nafzger gets his good performance then Street Sense wins.

Yep, you can't ignore anything TP sends out, and I'm not advocating that people unload on Street Sense. Its just that he's like the 800lb gorilla in the corner, hard to ignore.

Based on the very explosive moves he made in his last two races, I honestly think he could win this not "fully cranked" and even if he didn't fully care for the surface. But I don't feel inclined to bet on this one, rather just watch this time.

A 60% Street Sense blows these horses away.

And anybody who thought the Juvenile was a fluky performance didn't watch the Futurity at Keeneland when Street Sense ran a sensational race. 4-5 wide on first turn, giant sustained move to force a fast pace 4 wide on the 2nd turn, put all the other speed away, and after all that, Circular Quay beat him for second by 1 inch and Great Hunter beat him for the win by about a length.

This race is probably a no-bet situation unless you're playing the pk4 or show a lack of discipline like me. . . with that being said:

Pletcher has been pointing AGS towards this race for a while. He's got a race over the track and in my opinion is underrated. I think if the two favorites get into a slugfest in the final strides he takes it because he has proven his gameness and also will be more cranked up than Street Sense. And with all due respect to Borel and Nafzger, Johnny V. and Pletcher are a little more intimidating.

I'm seeing Street Sense in the same way that I (correctly) saw Summer Doldrums last week. Violette undertrained SD for fear of a bounce and SD had a lackluster performance. Nafzger probably doesn't fear the bounce for this horse because of the time off between races, but he is obviously trying to start him off slow and he won't be anywhere close to 100% for this race.

I still think Street Sense's health should still be in question despite the way he's supposedly working and it will be interesting to see how he looks in the post parade. I've been on AGS since before his race vs. Tiz Wonderful and I'm not jumping off now. . .

I LOVE Optimistic Steve so I'll probably play a $20 exacta AGS over Optimistic Steve and $10 Exacta the other way. . .

Is there nary a believer in Kev's wisdom that the quirky sandy surface of Tampa has humbled many a shipper. AICG and AGS are the only horses to run on this track with a likely 15-20 mph wind making things even tougher.

Street Sense loves CD but will not have as comfortable time on this track.
I like AGS and AICG exacta box hoping that this time AICG holds on for the better price. Street sense has the benefit of the CD/Borel homecourt the first Saturday in May.

It isn't always the better horse but the better horse for that track that day!

The wind is howling here, currently 20mph gusting to 30mph out of the north (per weather.com). That means it will be a head wind down the backstretch and a tailwind coming home.

I don't think the Tampa Sand is nearly as quirky as it was say 5-10 years ago. It is definitely not as deep as it used to be. Generally, if a horse likes Churchill he will like Tampa.

Taking a stand with one of the standouts in the P4 may be the only way to make enough money to justify the risk. That said, leave either off your ticket at your own peril.

I think there are some juicy opportunities in the undercard Stakes.
GL to all today.

Any Given Saturday raced on Tampa sand last time for the first time and was comfortable winning.

Why then is it automatically assumed that Street Sense is going to be uncomfortable and at such a disadvantage?

How was Any Given Saturday able to do it?

I agree that a looking for a horse with an affinity for the surface is a good angle. It certainly works for me on poly. But before having raced on the surface its seems strange to jump immediately to the conclusion that the horse won't handle the surface.

Any Given Saturday showed that he can run the same kind of race over the TBD surface as he did in previous races in Kentucky. Why won't Street Sense do the same?

Arljim, the only reason to assume he won't is the price! If Street Sense is the big favorite, and he doesn't take to the surface, there may be value elsewhere. This type of assumption makes most sense when going against a big favorite, although you certainly won't be right all the time. But you don't have to be.

Well for multirace plays you can't just leave out all favorites because you won't be right often enough because they win too much.

Certainly if you think he's worth the risk to play against it makes sense but I don't think you are going to get any bargain price on Any Given Saturday either, and I don't see any other likely win candidates.

There are many many races you can play each day with false, overly bet, heavy favorites. I guess I'm more inclined to play against those types and not this one considering what the horse has shown and the connections.

is it safe to say that you think street sense is a winner today ?

Understood, mine was more a general statement than specific to this race, however, I'm still taking a stand against (in the win spot).

My thoughts exactly. Plus, nobody has come off of the BC gold rail to run well.

An overlay is an overlay, whether it's 10-1 or 8-5. I think AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field if Street Sense weren't in it, so by tossing him, I'm getting twice the fair odds in my opinion. Kinda like Lava Man in California. So many people are quick to try to beat him that he goes off more than even money and wins 8 straight.

If he goes off at even money 8 times, and you keep betting against and finally hit that 10-1 shot on the 9th, you made your money back and more in one play.

Lots of ways to look at it from a probability point of view. Looking for that big kill on a favorite at even money is death long term. In other words if you make that kill once, stop. But the tendency is very clearly to put big money down, make a 100% profit, and its party time. Then you look for party time again, and take a smackin. People cant leave that apparently easy money alone for long in this game.

That being said I will have fun watching, not wagering on this race. Imo Street Sense and Nobiz are the capable monsters this year. If you had to pick two horses that have a shot at the TC, I would go with these two.

3 year olds don't run 8 straight. More like 3 and then retirement.

Yes and even money is an overlay on Street Sense if he shows up in the same form that he showed in his last two races. Even a close approximation of those races will get it done here.

I just think that after this race people are going to be looking back and thinking why in the world was I trying to beat him with this field.

You are correct. But if you cant find 8 races with even money favorites you just know are going to win... you are not looking. The temptation of easy money is my point Dr. Pillow. Kinda like when two teams play, its one or the other, 50/50 shot with a return of less than 100%. And you just know you have the winner. You are familiar with these plays I will assume.

Race Projection:

1.Op Steve: NY Bred who jumped 35 performance fig points from maiden to second race. I expect him to regress a little as he has not faced this competition so far in his career. Positive to him as he was closing well on a very speed favoring bias last out. If he pairs that last performance, he'll still be short of a win here.

2. Street Sense: Has shown nice small progressive figures in each of his last four races and has done well on fast, slop, poly and a juiced up Breeders Cup surface last year. Projecting him to run a triple digit performance fig today from off the pace. Does he need a race? Lots of works says he ready to go. No price though.

3. All I Can Get: Ran a triple top last out...should regress back to his level today.

4. AG Saturday-2 nice off the pace wins on poly in his 1st 2 starts, then exploded to a triple digit 4W performance in the KY JC on 5 weeks rest. First out this year JV rides just hard enough to get the win. If he pairs up his JC performance fig, or IMPROVES as Pletcher usually does, he'll win, but at no price.

I don't see anybody else being competitive in this race. Race is a pass and watch from cold and icy Long Island!;)

By "tossing him", do you really think he has zero chance to win? Of course not. So, what chance do you give Street Sense? Let me turn that question around. Would you take 2-1 on Street Sense if you could get it? If so, you think he has at least a 33% chance to win the race.

You said AGS would be 3-5 to beat the field without Street Sense. If you mean 3-5 is fair odds, then that means that AGS would have a 5/8 = 62.5% chance to win the race without Street Sense. The rest of the field would have 37.5% chance to win. WITH Street Sense, those numbers are obviously reduced. If fair odds on Street Sense are, say, 2-1, then that 33% has to come from the chances of AGS and the other horses. AGS's chance to win would drop from 62.5% to around 42%. A 42% chance to win is close to 7-5. That's consistent with your 8-5, but it's heavily dependent on the fair odds you assign Street Sense. My point is it usually pays to assign odds rather than "toss". (unless you truly think Street Sense has zero chance, in which case you can make a ton of money by offering various people on this forum 2-1 on Street Sense.)

That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.

--Dunbar

If you make that single play "longshot" play 9 times... you only have to hit it once. And if you find nine races in which you project fair odds close to but not double digits on a double digit odd horse...

I guess the real point is I would have never bet Lava MAN to win the 8 races he has. In hindsight I would be way ahead. But I never would have done this. How many times do you see even money favorites win 8 races in a row using any track and any 8 races on a given day?

That was the best stakes race so far this year, Classic Calvin "Borail",
that race didn't deserve a loser

why the front wraps for street sense?

Mike...does anyone love the rail more than Calvin?? No fear....I love it.

Kev, I never seen a jockey like Calvin squeeze through the smallest gap
on the rail. Has some Guts.