Tampa Bay Plays for Saturday
 

I have spent a few hours this afternoon handicapping this card, i have a few plays that i like alot, here they are....



Race #9 $1 pick 4 wheel All/2,7/6/2,4 ... possibly not much value if you dont catch a price in the first leg, thats why i will go all. In the 10th i thought it was really hard to go past the top 2 in here i looked at this race for a long time trying to find a way to beat one of the top 2 but i just dont see it happening. In the 11th i think My Typhoon is a standout, i will be betting her heavy to win, i have loved this horse for a long time i love the pedigree and the great tactical speed that she has, she is actually my play of the day if she losses im in trouble because im making a big win bet on her and keying her in the pick 4. In the 12th i was tempted to key Street Sense and play a $2 or $3 wheel but i dont want to get beat by Todd and Any Given Saturday, this is another race that i looked at for a long time trying to find a horse to beat one of the top to, but i just couldnt, i could not go over 2 in this race or the 10th. Good luck everyone, and once again unless you catch a big price in the first leg i dont think you can break the bank with this ticket but i definitly think its hitable.

I'm not very enthused by the card so my only play as of right now will be a straight exacta Any Given Saturday over Optimistic Steve. . .

i dont like it much either i only like the 4 races in the pick 4 sequence, but there is not much else tommorw, i dont like anything at gulf or the big A, i like lukas's horse in the rebel but he will be short price.

do you think optimistic steve will run good ? i looked at the race for a long time and i thought maybe most distinguished could get into the exacta if one of the big 2 runs bad.

I've liked Optimistic Steve since his debut (see my posts in the "two year olds to watch" thread in the trip notes section). . . His last race was pretty impressive and I think he's got the running style to get a piece. . .

do you think he can win, should i put him in my pick 4, i mean if he wins you could possibly catch a huge pick 4, even if the other 3 races are chalk.

He has a SLIGHT chance to win if there's enough pace in the race. . . I'm not sure he's quite at the level that AGS is and the level that Street Sense can be when he's 100%. . . If you haven't watched the replays of Optimistic Steve's races- take a look. . . He's got a nice kick

i just watched, i dont think this race will setup for him, but from what i saw he's definitly talented

ya that's why I'm playing him underneath. . .

I have also been looking at the races in this Pick 4. I'm hesitant, because I don't like to bet tracks I'm unfamiliar with. I like the picks suggested for the 10th and 11th. I'm trying to narrow down the choices in the 9th.

As for the 12th, the Tampa Bay Derby, I think this is Any Given Sunday's race to lose. Of the Zito horses, I prefer Most Distinguished to run 2nd. But I haven't seen Optimistic Steve run, so.... I don't think Carl Nafzger could care less about winning this. I think he's trying to get his horse ready for the big race the first Saturday in May.

i agree about nafzger possibly not caring but heres how i look at it, this horse might just be that much more talented then any given saturday, i mean he has never been worst then 3rd in his career vs very good company and everyone he beat in the juvenile has came back to run very well, so even if he's not fully cranked im thinking he can still beat any given saturday, the more i think about it and look the more im thinking of keying street sense and doing a $3 or $4 ticket, instead of a $1.

Good luck to you. I agree that Street Sense is the best horse. I just think that Calvin Borel is going to follow instructions and take it very easy on this horse. If Street Sense doesn't win, who does? The way I'm thinking, I'm going to key Any Given Saturday over the 2 Zito horses in the exacta. I was going to go for a cold exacta Any Given Saturday over Most Distinguished, but a few others on this site love Optimistic Steve, so I've got to include him or I won't be able to sleep tonight.

Remember boys, Tampa is not like most other tracks. Very sandy there and some horses simply do not take to the quirky surface. Been following the track long enough to know that horses that run great elsewhere, can run like total sh*t at Tampa....and visa versa.

My greatest success has come betting horses that are proven over the track.

J.M.V.H.M.F.O.:cool:

Truer words have never been spoken...GPK is BACK!

AGS has already proven he can win over the surface, albeit over questionable company...I'd still take that over SS off the layoff and the Zito pair, but use them for sure.

Does any one think Desire To Excel has a chance
in the Fla. Oaks. Hasn't started since Saratoga, but
Breen does pretty well with fresh/layoff horses. Could
be the controlling speed with Calvin at the helm.

damn right homey....:cool: :cool:

Already been to the OTB 2 times this week and left a winner both days.

To quote The Beastie Boys...

"IT'S THE NEW STYLE"

Yes, I'm using her in my pick 4.
And I'm not a Tampa expert either, but am going to tread lightly and take a shot at the pick 4.
Selections below.

2 p4's
 

There is a more interesting p4 for the 5-8th races that i will be playing instead of the 9-12 races p4. I HATE turf sprints and with it starting the 9th race p4, i will most likely pass.

Here's what I came up with for a pick 4.

9) 6-8-9-11
Could get burned here, but I think one of these 4 will win it.
Not buying Court Folly in here, as the 5 furlong turf sprint is definitely a specialized race, and I don't think any back class is going to help him win this one.

10) 2,5,7I don't think Cotton blossom will win here, but can't justify not including her, either. Autobahn girl is in great form and Desire to Excel could be an absolute force in the 3-yo filly ranks this year if she comes back as good as she looked before she got sidelined.

11) 1-5-6
I agree that My Typhoon is the class, but also note she's never ran at Tampa before. Plus, 1-1/8 isn't her favorite distance, and she won't be alone on the front end getting away with soft fractions either as the 8 and 9 will both be right on her tail. She could win this on sheer ability, but I need to include Rich in Spirit and as a longshot, I'll take Masseuse. Trainer is good off the long layoff, and if she's ready, she fits with these.

12) 4
No reason to take anyone else. There's already too many built-in excuses for Street Sense not to win here, and I don't see anyone else in the field being able to handle Any Given Saturday. The Sam Davis win makes him even more of a slam dunk. Anything near the 9/5 morning line will be a gift.

6,8,9,11/2,5,7/1,5,6/4
$36 for $1 (pending scratches)

i looked at the race for a long time and i cannot use anyone but the top 2, i looked at her i like her, just not in this spot

good luck, i cant single any given saturday for me at this point im using both of them but im definitly considering throwing any given saturday out and keying street sense and in the 11th i think My typhoon is such a standout i mean at this point i cant get off her, its like not being able to fold a bad poker hand, i cant get off how much i love her tommorw if she losses my day will be horrible, im keying her and betting her to win

Oh yeah, looked at her, she's real interesting.

Long time off but working well. Also noticed in the Schulerville she was the favorite over Cotton Blossom last summer.

Downside is of course the long time off and first time 2 turns, but yeah, I think worth a long look because of the speed she showed last year.

umm Rudeboy, all I have to say about your signature is,

What are you an F'N park ranger now?

Changing my ticket.
Going 5 deep in the 9th and 11th.
Singling autobahn girl and Any Given Saturday..

Fingers crossed.

obviously i cought the first 1 in the pick 4, since i went all i guess 5-1 is ok , not the huge number i was looking for but ok start.

i cannot belive that todd's horse is favored over my typhoon im unloading on her to win, if shes losses im ****ed because shes keyed in my pick 4, but i like her so much its worth the risk, good luck to everyone and lets all hope my typhoon gets it done

she looks reat on the track. not sure set up of race as I don't have a form here, however on looks it's between top 3 with Typhoon looking best.

not good i just lost a large amount of money, im done for the day... i have a straight exacta later of air commander and grapelli which i put in earlier today, and thats it good luck everyone

WOW...does Borel love the rail or what???

very nice finish by both.

who won ?

totally agree, any given saturday ran huge i have alot more respect for him now, but wow the champ was impressive first off the layoff, trainer said he wouldnt be tight the mile goes in 1:33.4 i was impressed with street sense today

johnny just tanked his ride. Oh well, good race and Saturday proved some gameness. I really wish JV would have tried the rail.

Good to see a guy like Nafzger having continued success..

Perfect trip for Street Sense...but I did like the move he made turning for home. Nice little burst. AGS was of course a little wide the whole race and that surely made the difference in the winning margin. I think they both can move forward off this race.

well the horse had alot of edges coming in over street sense, race over the track, a prep, ultra hot connections, so i think street sense getting the rail only evens things out

announced track record. how's that for not being on top form, anyone watch the races there today, was track playing fast?

IMO...it is hard to put a ton of stock in track records.

Me too, Kev, a fine horseman, I'm very pleased to see his colt come back on top. Fantastic race.

I could be mistaken, but it appeared to me a bit early in the race that Street might be spinning his wheels a bit over the quirky surface...but after the middle move and stretch run...I think he took to it fine.

kev,
How do horses normally fare coming up the rail in the stretch at TBD?
Does it help, hurt, or doesn't matter.