Circular Quay: Just a Deep Closer or More?
 

A couple people whose opinions I respect think he's just a deep closer. I think he's more. I see him as more of a sustained middle move type. The races he's won have been over while still above the 1/16 pole. Starts his move at the 5/8 and keeps momentum going through the lane. He didn't beat a great group Saturday but he has been impressive, especially with his turn runs. We'll see if he lays a bit closer in the Wood (or wherever) or needs to show more speed early from an outer post.

well, whatever you decide to call him, he's still going to be the type who has to have clear sailing thru the lane-and that's generally easier said than done.

I'd like to seem him show a little more interest in the early part of the race. While he's certainly at least a contender for the Derby at this point, he doesn't make things easy for himself by having to pass the entire field every time he races. Some have called him a closing sprinter.. I think he's more than that. I also don't think the Louisiana Derby field was that weak.. at least comparing that race to the other 3yo stakes races run this year.. it was about as good as any other so far.

Too early to tell. I would lean the closing sprinter route, but even those horses can stretch occasionally. But 8.5 is not 10 panels...So I think the jury is out.

This is one of the best 3 yr olds in the country. How good remains to be seen. A 2nd in the Futurity...BC Juvenile and a 1st in the LA Derby suggest this horse is way, way more than a closing sprinter.

Like I said on saturday,I think he is the main bullet in the gun for Todd.He will be my board horse for the derby,just like stepeenwolfer was last year.I luv the fact that he LUVS Churchill Downs.

It cant hurt that he loves CD. We all know there are nice horses that go there and just hate the track. I dont think he has to be as far back as a stepp. or Jazil and hopefully he will make the Derby and get a good post... Well that is what they all hope.lol I really like the colt. Not to change the subject, but what is up with Principal Secret? I havent seen anything in awhile.

I have been on the band wagon and then I jumped ship.Im trying to get back on board. The nproblem with these deep closers are they have a bunch of built-in excuses that go with the style they run. Something to think about is if Pletcher gets 5 or more in the derby who will get this colt and thus be saddled with the problem of carving the trip if Gomez and JR opt for others. A new ridder could be very eventful. Has Pletcher already secured a a comitment for this horse if he makes it regardless of any others ? I know its early but the Jock could be the differance with CQ because of his running style

I was hanging out with a galloper for Pletcher the other night. She said Scat Daddy has Pletcher's heart (because he used to own him).

I think she thought that AGS was Pletchers main bullet but its pretty close between AGS and CQ (she told me he was a given right before the LA derby)

He was on the move well before the turn on Saturday and carried it from at least the half mile pole all the way in. I did notice that he seemed to relax when he made the lead, but was still able to finish the deal. Did he let up because he was on the lead, or because he was almost empty? That's the million dollar question regarding CQ.

The pace, in my opinion, was smoking hot in the LA Derby. CQ almost had to win by default.

Closer!!! Only way this horse does anything is if the pace is blistering and in this years 3yr old crop there is no TOP Speed

Would be a good mile horse with a rabbit

He got a 102 for his efforts the other day. Ketchikan a 99.

Thanks for posting this...

Ketchikan is a hell of a nice colt... if they can get him to calm down a bit, he's definitely one to watch.

The class of the 3yo crop may not be the need to lead types, but you can bet that there will be a couple of early speed types that pull wirejobs in the G3 preps that make for a hot pace in the Derby. If that happens, CQ is a player.

In all honesty I don't get the title of this thread. Of course he's a closer. He's always back in the pack. He's been 1st or 2nd every time he's stepped on the track other than when he got stopped cold in the Risen Star and I am quite certain he finishes 1st or 2nd there as well if ont for that incident. He is a very good 3 yr old closer...end of story. How good is the only debate and is he good enough to win the Derby. Of course he benefits from a fast pace as all closers do. HE always gives a good effort...even in the Risen Star it was a top notch deed gathering himself fro stopping and finishing 5th.

Quay is a darn good closer. He always has his neck stretched and his ears pinned back when he is asked to run. But like so many on here has pointed out, he has to pass 19 horses to win the Derby and that just doesnt happen. I think the horse can be successful at any distance. It is all about the trip with this one.

I'm not a big fan of this horse, and agree that the race had to fall apart--- which makes the 2nd place horse's performance all the more impressive.

Yet, I certainly thought that Zanjero and certainly Birdbirdistheword would get a jump on CQ. In other words, they'd move before CQ did.
Zanjero, up to the race, had been moving too soon, IMO, and I was interested in seeing what would happen if they timed his move a bit better,
and Bird...was moving with Street Sense (and thus, ahead of CQ) in the Keeneland stake.

As it shaped up, CQ did all the middle running and the other 2 could only try to pick up the pieces late ---it was all they could do to get by Liquidity, and never threatened the top 2.

And this is troubling, because CQ usually lets all the others run first and then simply picks up the pieces. This was an improved effort, IMO.

Has he gone 10 furlongs yet? That turn of foot isn't always the same at a distance. Aldebaran anyone.

He's just another Pletcher horse. I don't see how anyone can root for this guy. It's like rooting for Wal-Mart and/or Halliburton.

I don't know if that is a fair comparison given that Aldebaran was by Mr. P. and CQ is by Thunder Gulch.
We all know that pedigree does not guarantee anything, but one of the things that has been exciting about CQ from the begining is that he was very effective in one-turn races, and yet he was by a horse in Thunder Gulch that showed real quality at 10f (and beyond), and had already sired a multiple-classic winner in Point Given. Does this ensure that CQ will like going 9f or further? No, but it does make it more likely.

He could win the derby as could about 10 other horses right now

Just depends on who is in. If there are some straight speed horses a closer has a great chance however if is just your normal stalk whoever is out front, there is no way that a closer could come throught all that traffic to win

Remember guys the Derby is not a Gr 3 with 7 horses entered and a closer is someone who come threw at the end. Kinda hard to go from 15 back threw all those horses

Oh no. Not the dreaded Point Given again.

I don't follow.

Yes but as Cardus pointed out in an earlier post, a lot of other closers have done it. I am not saying CQ will....but it is not exactly impossible.

Nothing...Its just a basic overrated thing. I mean Somer has him in his top 50 of all time I believe....Nothing to do with the distance question Mira.

All I know is people go on about traffic in the Derby and how so-and-so had bad racing luck but I've always thought closers that win the race are the ones that make their own luck. You don't only have a jockey knowing what hole to go through but you have a horse willing to do it, even if it's the tightest squeeze he's ever seen in his life. Maybe he bounces off the rail or cuts between horses and wants to win so badly he won't take no for an answer when a lesser horse might've said 'hey it's been a hard race, I'm calling it a day'. I think it can be done and masterful to watch.

Strike the Gold was my first Derby pick and first winner so I have a certain affection for a horse that sparks comparisons to the ol' boy--sure I was a total sucker for the sob story they told on Alydar during the Derby coverage but I liked the look of StG in and of himself.

I"d like to see your count, because the last time we did this on another forum we got about twice the number of closers as stalkers counting from 1980 to 2005. I think we got 20 closers/10 stalkers/6 front runners.

I dont know where we stuck pressers perhaps in w/ front runners, dont recall.

SINce then Ive tried to count from 1960-present and the ratio does not quite hold up, but it's still somethign like: 50%-30%-20% (closer/stalker/frontrunner).

So I love it when people say these closers will not get through the traffic. But they do, more than half the time, one of them comes in first...

Would be interested if you have made a similar count.

OH Cardus...Sorry I did not see you had made your count earlier in the thread. I just posted a little too quickly.

Anyhow, from the last discussion we had on another forum (could be PaceAdvantage, or maybe one of the long dead ones..) we had a few more to add to your list.

Going back to 1980, add the following:

Charismatic; Thunder Gulch; ALysheba and Pleasant Colony.

I recall Charismatic and I have TG and Aly. on tape but if this is not right let me know. I"m always interested in historical comparisons and what not so I'd like to hear what you think.

Charismatic I think was a closer, I recall seeing him on the backstretch of some race the derby I guess just picking off horses, from that race I recall he made his move before the turn, which sort of complicates the analysis. At the BEL he was chasing the speedy Vision and Verse, was it???

Pleasant Colony is mentioned by one poster as being a deep closer so..

Anyhow, let me know what you think, this is always an interesting topic.

Oh btw: we did not figure out what Swale was but I will go look that up now...

OKay, looks like Thunder Gulch is a presser from the PPs, I see. Looks pretty clear on that.

Alysheba I got to think is a closer he made a move prior to the turn which puts him closer when they get to the stretch but he's coming from far back so closer...

Pl. Colony, same he makes that move on the back stretch, he was way back.

Swale. More of E/P, I guess from the derby chart. He pressed the pace and pulled away as the got to the top of the stretch. Sounds a lot like Barbaro, huh? Dont recall seeing this race...

In the 1960s, I count about 6 closers, 2 stalkers (NoDance/Venetian Way) and 2 presser/need to lead (KauaiKing/Lucky Debonair).

So it seems we are approaching a ratio of 50/30/20 or so..


BTW: In thefirst post, I did not mean to imply that I was disagreeig w/ Cardus overall take on closers, I was merely quatifying the numbers. It sounds like I am disagreeing with his overall point.

Okay I've redone my count, some of this based on internet discussion, some of this I looked bact at the trip notes, some PPs. Starting from 1960 with 47 data pts, it seems to break down as:

23/11/6/7

Closer/stalkers/presser/front runner

Some notes: I counted FuPeg as a closer as he was 6 1/2 back at the 1/2 mile. I had to reclassify Charismatic as stalker as he was w/in 4 len. when he started passing all those horses on the backstretch. Smarty I have as stalker, although the Preakness I thought he pressed. Thunder Gulch reclassed as presser looking at the PPs. Barbaro stalker, although some think of him as a E/P. .