Proof of BC "Golden Rail"?
 

After Round Pond's race today I got to thinking about the BC winners on dirt this year and how they've performed after the BC:

Dreaming of Anna- Beaten on both dirt and turf- hasn't looked nearly as good as last year

Street Sense- Has yet to race again- mixed reports of his current condition

Thor's Echo- Won at LRL and then lost badly in Dubai if I'm not mistaken

Round Pond- Didn't run at all today.

Invasor- Great race in the Donn. . . Don't think he had a rail trip in the Derby.

Now obviously, there are other factors that must be taken into consideration. And I also can't remember at the moment which horses trips could actually be considered aided by the "golden rail."

But this seems interesting and worth noting to me. . .

Any opinions?

To me there was never a question about the golden rail. It was in full effect. No track ruins big days more than Churchill. None.

You are using Thor's Echo's loss in Dubai as evidence of the golden rail? That's a stretch. You should also point out that the race he won at LRL was the G1 De Francis. Obviously the rail was the place to be on BC Day but I don't think it was anywhere near the magnitude people have made it out to be. I don't see how using races from three to four months later provides much evidence of the golden rail. Round Pond's races prior to the BC were much more indicative of her form than today's debacle.

i also think that trainers have their horses cranked up as much as possible for the big day, causing a letdown the next time they run. Only a very good horse can duplicate big efforts. i have been betting against breeders cup participants in their next start for several years and it is very profitable.

I mentioned that there are other factors that must be taken into consideration. . . Just something I noticed. . . Thanks for your opinion :)

Obviously the rail on BC was souped up.....but Thor's Echo wasn't on the rail.

One of the cool things is how formful the BC Juvy has come back for this years 3yo group. Your top five finishers were Street Sense (who we'll find out about maybe next week), Circular Quay (who has come back to run two big ones), Great Hunter (came back in a great return), Scat Daddy (Fountain of Youth winner), and Stormello (dug in like a mad horse in the FOY).

It's really strange how that race has come back.

It will be scary if Street Sense follows suit and runs back big.

Not too bad for a crop that is viewed to be pretty average....so who is the best up to this point?

I dunno who I like best, though I'm sticking with Street Sense because I said I would -- until he proves me wrong with a race.

I just wonder if maybe the Juvy seemed somehow flawed based on the track condition, and that it might not be a case of no other horses stepping up (with obvious exceptions, Nobiz, Any Given..., etc etc) -- maybe we just saw the best of them in the Juvenile that time around.

We'll see, I am trying to not extrapolate too much from the little fact I posted, just thought it was interesting just how well that race has held up so far in the Prep season.

He is finished.

Finished with what?

As I said in November he will never be the same again. He isn't in the gate on Derby day either.

Let me just add that predicting the juvenile winner is finished is a bold prediction considering what's happened with past winners. :rolleyes:

based on what?

Search my Street Sense article from November...All the goodies are inside.

He's not finished. Saw him the other day and he looked awesome. He's started working really well. We'll get a good indication next weekend of how "finished" he is.

That seems like an odd prediction to me. Considering that both Street Cry (sire) and Dixieland Band (boodmare sire) improved with age (both were graded stakes winners at age 4) why are you assuming that this colt peaked at 2?
Considering that the colts this one beat in the BC have performed quite well - as brianwspencer pointed out - and he seems to be training decently, it seems strange to say he is finished.

La La La. He may win that race, at least he should. But 2 preps? Why? B/c he's ouchy. same reason he needed wraps in his 4th start of his career.

I'd be surprised if the top five finishers of last year's Juvy are all in the starting gate come the first saturday in may. Sadly, Injuries always creep up.

not that interested to go that far. I'll just wait until next Saturday and draw my own conclusion.

Bumped for you.

The idea is to bet against mediocre horses that get reputations that are undeserved. Street Sense, while aided by the dynamics of the race as well as the bias, is not one of these horses.

Look, even if he was the likeliest winner of the Derby at this point, he still is no better than 20-1 in reality. Hell, even sound he probably isn't 60% to make the Derby. However, the idea that he won't make the Derby because he ran too fast in early November is beyond ridiculous.

Street Sense is a very good horse. We don't have a lot of these in actuality anymore. It's possible he may be capable of running more than one or two good races. Ya know, horses used to be able to do this.

Well if he does win that race....then how exactly is he "finished"? Isn't it weird to say a horse is "finished" and then say that he should win a graded stakes race next weekend?

You don't use Thoros so you have a different view. If you did, you'd likely agree.

Read the thread I just bumped.

I use them and I don't agree with you at all.

By the way, this is embarrassing double talk. It isn't even clear he is the favorite next week.

If you're going to take a stand in this game, which you mystifyingly seem to be at least attempting to do here, then DO IT. Don't hedge.

Be a man!

You don't think he'll be the fave! Haha...Hey guess what, I took at stand in November. So this isn't new...

yeah I saw it but I'm not convinced.

Apparently when someone says a horse is "finished" they don't mean "finished winning graded stakes races."
It is a bit confusing.

You're not taking a stand.....you're already hedging. Either he's through or he isn't. Take a position. As of now you are attempting to cover all your bases.

Any Given Sunday, with a race over the track, may very well be the favorite.

Anyone else thinking Street Sense goes in that allowance on Thursday?

You know what. Look at the study done by horses who run negatives early in their 3 yr old season and when they run them again. He ran a huge negative as a two year old----you don't think the fact that he hasn't raced yet is an issue?

I hear if he does...Randall thinks he's a cinch.

I use thoro numbers, but don't think you can project how a horse will perform six months in the future by looking at a number today.

If he does that tells you all you need to know.

The good news for Street Sense is he earned his speed figure while getting a perfect trip on a gold rail...thus his number should be adjusted upwards....and out of negative territory.

What a relief.


If he had only run last in the Juvie....he'd be a living cinch in the Derby.

Now, if you don't mind I'm going to return to sane conversation....with my imaginary rabbit.

Andy, the red headed step child of the board. Did I say he will win on Sat, he could. But if he wins with an 85 Beyer, what would you think? That's a positive? Gimme a break here.

Here is what I stand by: --that he won't be in the Derby
That he won't run a negative the rest of his 3 yr old season
That he won't win a Grade 1 the rest of his career

That good enough for you....Make some calls of your own here before you knock people who actually do take a stand.

That he already has graded earnings and they'd rather bring him back in an easy spot at 7 furlongs?