Place Vs. Fave/Long Exacta Running Tab
 

Alright here it is. (Mods-if you would, you can leave this in the Paddock for a day and then transfer it to the Contest Forum--thanks)

This will be based on a 250 Race sample starting 3/8/07 and running till enough races are run.

Any horse 10-1 or over finishing second(OR FIRST) will be given a place payout((read addendum at end of Paragraph) (obviously based on a 2$ base bet)---that will then be checked for the favorite of the race being on top...If they are, the 2$ exacta payout will go in the Exacta column. If they aren't it will still count as a race towards the 250. (ADDENDUM---as Andy rightfully stated I have short changed the Place side as if the longshot won the race you would get both the place and the win---that must be added as well)

The tracks used will all be large tracks with large pools that aren't skewed.
AQ---GP---SA until the contest is over. Somedays there will be a number of races that qualify and others I'm sure very few.

I will post after all the races are run for a given day and give a breakdown by track and then also the overall breakdown until its over. Anyone who wants to double check the numbers is of course welcome to. It will take a couple of weeks but it is worth it to have a larger sample spread against a few tracks.

So, let the games begin tomorrow...GRITS we can pm each other and figure out something to bet on this. Good luck.

You're obviously welcome to do it this way, or any way you like, but looking at past results will be faster and provide the same statistical evidence.

True, but it will kind of fun to keep track this way. As you said if you sample any given month it could vary widely so I'd rather take my chances from here on in...A true entire year study would settle it but this kind of sample should do the trick.

If going back we could look at GP, SA, and Turfw or AQ since Jan.9, or their respective opening dates. Though I no longer get Simulcast Weekly.

a) You would probably box with the favorite thus it should count if the 10/1 horse wins and the favorite runs 2nd or vice versa

b) anything over 20/1 is a stretch IMO, should be between 10/1 and 20/1 the way Andy did it first.

chalk players...lol at least 1/2 of it

The way Grits described it is the way it will run. Boxing it has nothing to do with place betting....And over 20-1 will help prove the case that betting to place is the better option. Getting the 50-1 to finish second will not feel good when the fave is not on top in her situation....That's the way it goes.

Nope, no go Scav. We're not talking about boxing the exacta. Flat, straight favorite, over the longshot only.

What are you talking about Hooves?

The box is irrelevent to this particular discussion. We are ONLY looking at place vs. second to the favorite.

We could also compare a $10 wager in another study....$6 win $4 place vs. $4 win, $2 Box with favorite and $2 second to the favorite.

I came in on the ass end of the conversation and I look like a donkey...CARRY ON!!!

Don't kill me Andy. LOL. Let's start with this the way it is. Haha.

I will look at past data and make two groups....10-1 and up and only 10-1 to 20-1.

This should be fun and informative.

The second one is much harder ( and will sometimes result in using both the first and second finisher ). The first is best because it's cut and dried.

Dream on darlin', and let's see how many of those I pine over.

Let's do the data going forward. I want to have a fresh outlook on this and not expect the data to go in a certain direction.

You are the best....I pm'd you. Check it. Good luck my dear.

someone has alot of time on there hands.......this about place betting vs doing an exacta with said horse on top of a lodigical fav 5/2 ..the exacta will come out on to 90 perc of the time..why the big study:D

B/c I feel like it and it will be fun. And I disagree with you. 90% of the time is if the fave comes in. Doesn't always happen that way.

If all this brainpower could somehow be harnessed to benefit mankind, Al Gore could rest at night.

You just want to cheer for favorites to run up the track.... :)

Either way, as long as the sample size is long enough (a whole meet), you should get a decent perspective on who is right....

Personally, if I understand this, Randall is saying that betting place is more worthwhile then playing an exacta, Grits is saying play the bomb with the chalk.

SPEAKING IN Natural odds, just plain Natural odds (10 horse race, each horse has a 10% change of winning) Randall wins this argument in a landside BUT I would have to break out some crazy algerbra to figure out the odds (using 30% as favorite winning as a national average)

Data is data.....and the past will be the same as the future.

ext with the 5/2 over the 10-20-1..sorry

We shall see....Trainers winning at 30% clips today could be 5% going forward....Time will tell.

Al's sleeping with his Oscar and Tipper. So Al's happy.

A statistic sample in the 100s takes care of that.

I love constructive arguments....(not a single name called yet)

And isn't that a very good thing! (I did call his avatar "a little undulating tart" and he cast her off like a spent match.) LOLOL

I just realized what is fundementally wrong with this study....


You have to use any horse over 10-1 that WINS or PLACES ( there will be two in some races ). As, if your horse wins you get the place money and lose the exacta. In other words, the horses that run out are irrelevent, as you lose $2 either way, but the ones that win and run second are relevent.

Even though we are saying " how would I do if it just places " you have to remember you cash both bets if it wins.

That is why my first sample was so skewed.

That's right!! So those count as well....She's going to get killed.

No offense, but does this thread not target those whom play the tote board and odds with a couple minutes to post, the "numbers players" who love to dash to the teller and yell out their crazy exacta boxes, keys etc?

I like to find my horses and play them win and place no matter the odds anymore

Pick 3's the same, as SCAVS WOULD SAY - FULL TILT

Tilt is great, and I love it on Friday nights

Dang, I gotta work till 9pm this Friday but am OFF ALL DAY ON SATURDAY!

God bless MEADOWLANDS HARNESS RACING on Friday and Saturday nights!

To further what I just said.....each particular horse is an example...i.e. the horse wins you get X for the place bet and lose the exacta and any horse that places you get X for place and Y for the exacta where Y can be zero.

Actually let me think about this. We both would get the win end so maybe that is right...Now I'm confused.

I'm bored.

I looked at all of the available charts on Equibase, between Santa Anita, Gulfstream and Aqueduct. It only comprised eighteen race days total, but I went through them.

I used Randall's original idea, of 10-1+ shot running in the top two versus a 10-1+ shot running behind the favorite (any favorite, lukewarm or odds-on) in the race. With that, it presumes that regardless of how you played it, that 10-1+ horse was the one you liked.

The totals I got were:

Aqueduct:
Place Wagers: $139.20
Exacta: $222.40

Gulfstream:
Place Wagers: $292.40
Exacta: $440.80

Santa Anita:
Place Wagers: $335.20 (may I add, just ONE of the exactas was worth $302.80 for a deuce, almost entirely negating the other sixteen double-digit place horses all by itself)
Exacta:$593.00

Total for published race days on Equibase:
Place Wagers: $766.80
Exacta: $1,256.20

Not even close so far.

She's NOT going to get killed. She will probably prove to have the right side as the mathematics are in her favor ( due to the dispersal of takeout ). It should be pretty close.

Seriously, don't take this the wrong way, but this is not a contest of who's right or wrong. It's a very good study.

Apparently you missed Andy's post from before. You have short changed my side by quite a bit. You missed all the win bets when those longshots won...If you do it again, you'll find me on top.

Yes, I know Andy. I'm just getting fired up.

I'm not sure he did....he said a 10-1+ running in the top two.

I would like to know the total number of examples.

I just asked the smartest statistical person I know, who knows little to nothing about racing, and he is going to think about it. He did suggest using pools that are larger as they will have little to no random skew. I said we were.

GOOD ENOUGH. its fixed now. 1st or second on the place side vs. exacta on bottom for the other side. It will be reasonably close on second thought. But I'd say 60/40 in my direction at the end.

You know what it is also Andy, I'm at the mercy of some of those longshots WINNING the race as simply finishing second will not do it for me...But the combo will vs. the exacta.