2 out of 3 ain't bad
 

I thought it might be time for another hypothetical derby since we are kicking off the true derby prep season this saturday. we have done things similar to this in the past but they can sometimes be fun, and we have a lot of new members that haven't participated yet (plus this one is a little different).
here are the guidelines for this one:
1) to be eligible you had to win 2 out of the 3 tc races
2) it only covers the last 20 years (1987-2006) so no spectacular bid or man o' war

so, if we take into consideration only how the horses were in may and june of their 3yo year, and this is the field - post position included - going 1.25 miles at churchill downs on a fast & honest track, who would you take?

pp
1] Hansel
2] Funny Cide
3] Tabasco Cat
4] Alysheba
5] Silver Charm
6] Point Given
7] Smarty Jones
8] Sunday Silence
9] Thunder Gulch
10] Risen Star
11] Afleet Alex
12] Real Quiet
13] War Emblem
14] Charismatic

You forgot Afleet Alex.

You are right. I'll add him.

Thanks for the catch. alex has now been inserted into post 11.

Point Given

I would have to go with Sunday Silence.....but you would probably get a nice price on Risen Star, so he might be worth a bet. Same thing with Afleet Alex. The pace would be hot up front, and it would set up pretty nicely for him.
In the end though.....nobody gets by Sunday Silence.

sunday silence.

Silver Charm

Dang I thought this thread was about a Meatloaf song...

I want you....

I need you....

But there ain't no way I'm ever gonna love you...


Hee hee! Sorry for intruding.

Smarty Jones or Point Given

point given

Sunday Silence on top.

I'd use Point Given, Alysheba, Silver Charm, and Risen Star underneath him in all exotics.

I'll take Smarty Jones, especially if I can ensure Stu Elliott is watching from the stands...

Superfecta box with Smarty Jones, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, and Point Given. If I had to predict an exact order of finish it would be those 4 in that order.

And leave out Aly..... crazy man crazy.lol

DH
SUNDAY SILENCE/ CIGAR (Why he was not included?)

Which two Triple Crown races did Cigar win? I must have missed those races.


Also I have trouble picking winner with out a jockey. Who would Gary Steven Riding?

I would take Afleet Alex. I think he is the one of the best horse I have seen run in my life. His move in the Belmont was simply breathtaking.

Sorry! You are right . I still Keep Sunday Silence

If the people on this board are any indication, it looks like Thunder Gulch would not be getting much respect. If he was sitting there at 25/1 or something....I would take a shot at him. It doesn't seem like there would be much value in my all-time favorite Sunday Silence.
Somebody that is good at making lines (ones that actually make sense mathematically) should do a line for this race.

What's funny, is that Cigar probably could have won the Kentucky Derby if he was entered...even though he was still a maiden at the time.

He was from the pathetic 3-year-old crop that ran in '93. Sea Hero, who had no talent and would have been Giacomo's bitch, won the Derby and Travers that year.

Cigar broke his maiden in career start #2, sprinting on the Hollywood Park dirt. He earned just about the same Beyer for that MSW win that Prarie Bayou would earn for his Preakness win a few days later.

After that fast and impressive maiden win sprinting on the dirt---Cigar would spend the next year and a half making a fool out of himself on the turf. It was very shrewd of Bill Mott to finally put him back on the dirt---I mean wow, what a stroke of genius that must have been. The press seemed to think so anyway.

Cigar actually won 17 in a row on dirt--even though his offical win streak is only 16.

That was a bad crop.
How a horse like Sea Hero managed to win 3 races with the tradition and importance of the Champagne, Travers, and Kentucky Derby.....is beyond me.

Silver Charm

Huh, why are people taking Point Given. He failed. He wasn't even in the Super, and now he's supposed to beat this field?...The most overrated horse in history possibly.

I'll take Sunday Silence or Smarty Jones, and frankly I'd lean towards Smarty Jones. Still shocked he lost the Belmont.

well, point given was pretty impressive in his post-Derby races.
the real question is.....where is the love for the great, unbeatable.....HANSEL!!!!! :eek: :D :eek: :D

Actually I always kind of liked Hansel, but against horses of this caliber, I would be SHOCKED if he was able to hit the board.

This might be an interesting exercise if we have PPs through June of the 3 yr old year for each horse, with no real names. Because I don't see how it is possible to compartmentalize what we know about each horse's future. Which, for me, makes it pretty hard to look past Sunday Silence, with a fondness for Alysheba.

Nope, not volunteering.

1st) POINT GIVEN - still don't know where that rash came from
2nd) THUNDER GULCH - still don't know why he lost the Preakness
3rd) AFLEET ALEX - the "dead rail" that day at Churchill cost him

The top two were solid after the triple crown races and Alex would have been if he didn't get hurt.

If I had to rank them in order...
 

The top 8 I've listed in "red" were the best of this group.

Here is where I disagree with you:
1) I would have to put Tabasco Cat in front of Hansel.
2) I would have to put Sunday Silence in front of Afleet Alex.
3) I would have to put Smarty Jones in front of Real Quiet.

I don't follow the rationale behind that one -- he was moving just perfectly on the inside, switched out around the turn came into the stretch about 4 wide, and had every chance to put them away in the stretch.

I'm not debating he was an exceptional racehorse, I just don't think there were a whole lot of excuses that day. He moved into contention right when all of the other contenders were, heading around the 3/8 pole when Buzzard's Bay made his sweeping move, and then ran out of gas.

I'd take Smarty :) Though I think Point Given is the most likely winner of this mythical Derby.

I gotta go Point Given. I just hope to get 9-2 on him and take it to the bank.

sunday silence:)

Smarty Jones with a real rider

1. Smarty Jones
2. Sunday Silence
3. Risen Star
4. Alysheba
5. Point Given
6. Thunder Gulch
7. Tabasco Cat
8. Silver Charm
9. Afleet Alex
10. Hansel
11. Real Quiet
12. Funny Cide
13. War Emblem
14. Charismatic

Wow! I simply second King Glorious' list, I wouldnt change much from that. I dont see how War Emblem could compete in this, once the pace was upped you could see his game falls apart. Afleet Alex might be the fastest closer of all of these and he usually sat just behind the pace...I've got to think that sort of runner would have a decent shot in a field like this at CD.

Have no feeling for Tabasco Cat; I watched those races, I guess it was the Go for Gin derby? But cant recall wath this Cat was like.

Yes Tabasco Cat was in the same crop as Go for Gin. In addition to winning the Preakness and the Belmont in 1994, he won two other graded stakes that year and ran second in the BCC. He was a very nice 3yo, but I don't think he could compete with the top horses in this list.
Here is his Belmont Stakes: http://207.232.119.242/nyra/belmonts/1994/index.html

Just watched "the Cat" win the Belmont and all I could think is "God I fu**ing hate Stewart Elliott"